Well, the provincial government has not forgotten about the Northern Growth Plan after all. It would appear that planning for the plan to plan all plans is still being planned. This morning's opinion piece in the Thunder Bay Chronicle-Journal by Northern Development and Mines Minister Rick Bartolucci "Consensus in the North: The arithmetic of success" was no doubt designed to provide a quantitative bent to the government's activities not by listing the investments it was planning to make in Northern infrastructure or documenting the size of the budget for new projects but by listing the number of consultations and their participants.
Indeed, according to the Minister:"When it comes to consulting, listening and collaborating with northerners, the McGuinty government is also ahead of the curve." The provincial government is working with northerners "to create two regional economic development planning pilots in Northern Ontario". The Northwest Joint Taskforce has posted their draft online and according to the Minister "The local planning teams will be inviting your input on their proposed approach. This is a time for us to work together on a made-in-the-North solution, and I urge you to participate." And finally, "I encourage you to keep contributing your advice and ideas for increasing prosperity in Northern Ontario."
What would be a more interesting pursuit by the Minister is not asking what we think about the Northwest Joint Task Force draft framework but what he or perhaps the MNDM Deputy Minister or perhaps Cabinet thinks of it. What the Minister is outlining is yet another set of consultations on a plan devised in response to a plan and whose implementation ultimately requires approval and action on the part of the government. Unless of course, by asking our views yet again on a proposal, the minister plans to finally base his decision on what we want. Is the Minister gradually moving towards a view of more regional autonomy for the North? Otherwise, all of this is simply another exercise is Northern economic development arithmetic in which the squared sum of the time spent consulting Northerners plus the number of ministerial announcements on progress in planning is equal to zero.
Northern Economist 2.0
Monday 13 February 2012
Sunday 12 February 2012
Drummond and the North
Wednesday will see the unveiling of Don Drummond’s
recommendations for the repairing of Ontario’s finances. Ontario
is not experiencing the best of times.
Along with its deficit and debt, its economic growth has stalled, its
population growth rate is slowing, its high electricity costs have been a
factor in the manufacturing sector’s demise, and Ontario is receiving equalization.
The Premier has promised a “relentless attack” on the
deficit. Yet, it is difficult to visualize Ontario’s education and health Premier
leading an attack on the spending programs he has invested so much of his reputation in. Given that he has
repeatedly stated he will not raise taxes, he is left with the options of
expenditure cuts or economies via transformation and restructuring of
government. In the end, there are really only three
options for Ontario’s government after Wednesday – raise taxes, cut spending
or some combination thereof. While
some of the recommendations Drummond makes may complement these courses
of action, there will be no miracles.
Of course, if the Premier is waiting for the Drummond
report to show him the way he is bound to be disappointed. Many of the recommendations and
suggestions have already been leaked and they make eminent sense.
The real question is how to go about implementing them. It will be
interesting to see what suggestions if any Don Drummond has here.
For example, universities can possibly save
money by having professors teach more and Drummond has said as much in the
media. Yet most Ontario
universities have collective agreements with their faculty that specify
teaching loads. Will the Ontario
government pass legislation suspending those agreements? Will the Ontario simply create new
“teaching only” universities but which entail spending more money now to save
money later? Or will the Ontario
government simply cut grants to universities with guidelines as to how the cuts
are to be distributed and to increase teaching loads? Yet, the grant stick has gotten weaker over the years. Ontario universities now only get about
forty percent of their revenues from government grants. Will they be allowed to raise tuition
more?
How about health care? Can we transform its delivery by implementing
electronic health records? Sadly,
it has already been tried once via the E-Health approach and look where that
got the government? How about more
private-public partnerships to create efficient and innovative new service
delivery? Have we not tried that
with ORNGE in the case of transport medicine – and where are we now? How about efficiencies via
regionalization in health care by dispersing more responsibilities to the Local
Health Integration Networks?
Interestingly enough, Alberta, one of the pioneers in regionalized
health care delivery has gone back to a centralized model. One suspects it is easier to cut global
budgets when they are centralized.
And what about Ontario's North? The recent Census numbers show a stagnant population in a slower growing province. In some sense, southern Ontario is becoming more like the North given the job losses, unemployment and slower income growth though that will not likely create any additional sympathy for the North. When the empire is in turmoil, the legions are called back first from the frontier. Any reductions in government services will have a major impact in our geographically dispersed and thinly populated region. And what about the Northern Growth Plan and the need for government infrastructure investments in the Ring of Fire? The government has been remarkably quiet on the Plan to Plan all Plans and one wonders if this means a shift in priorities when it comes to northern economic development policy - assuming that it ever actually was a priority. Will the Drummond Report deal at all with how to invest in the North's economy in a cost-effective manner? Will the Drummond Report urge an elimination of government economic development programs such as the Heritage Fund? Wednesday should be interesting.
Friday 10 February 2012
What's Up in Kenora?
The release of the 2011 census results for Northwestern Ontario were disappointing given the population declines that were registered. There is however one curiosity if one goes back to the 2001 Census. When the three Districts of the Northwest are compared over the period 2001 to 2011, Kenora District is a bit of an anomaly. Between 2001 and 2006, while the Thunder Bay District and the Rainy District registered population declines, Kenora registered a 4.2 percent increase - or 2,617 more people. Now, from 2006 to 2011, Kenora shows a bigger decline than either the Thunder Bay or Rainy River district at -10.6 percent or a drop of 6,812 people. The increase in Kenora District between 2001 and 2006 was attributed in large part to the growing First Nation population and their high birth rates. So what happened? Has the birth rate collapsed? Has a mass out-migration of non-aboriginal population counteracted the growing aboriginal population? Did the Census somehow not enumerate large numbers of first Nations residents in the outlying reserves this time around? Hopefully, there will be answers to these questions.
UPDATE: MONDAY FEBRUARY 13TH. Well, it turns out as announced this morning on the CBC Thunder Bay News that Statistics Canada has announced it missed 13 remote First Nations when it conducted the Census and did them in the fall with the updated numbers for Northwestern Ontario to be released soon. It would have been nice to know this when the numbers were initially released. After all, it likely means the population of the region as a whole probably did not drop 4.7 percent. Who knows, maybe it even went up? Let's hope the government waits for a final tally before reallocating seats in the House of Commons.
UPDATE: MONDAY FEBRUARY 13TH. Well, it turns out as announced this morning on the CBC Thunder Bay News that Statistics Canada has announced it missed 13 remote First Nations when it conducted the Census and did them in the fall with the updated numbers for Northwestern Ontario to be released soon. It would have been nice to know this when the numbers were initially released. After all, it likely means the population of the region as a whole probably did not drop 4.7 percent. Who knows, maybe it even went up? Let's hope the government waits for a final tally before reallocating seats in the House of Commons.
Thursday 9 February 2012
Northern Economist on the Census!
Well, the release of the 20111 Census results yesterday spawned alot of media activity for me yesterday ranging from the Huffington Post to Thunder Bay Television News to editorial mention in the Thunder Bay Chronicle-Journal. Thunder Bay Television has posted part of the interview they conducted with me on Youtube which you can access here.
Wednesday 8 February 2012
2011 Census Results for Population In: Northern Ontario Declines
Statistics Canada released the first set of 2011 census results today dealing with population and dwelling counts. Canada's population is up 5.9 percent from 2006, Ontario's is up 5.7 percent while within Ontario, the North is down overall by 1.4 percent. As the accompanying table shows, the Northeast stayed stable in terms of its overall population while the Northwest showed a decline of 4.7 percent. As for the major urban centers of the North, Greater Sudbury posted a 1.6 percent increase, North Bay a 1 percent increase, and Timmins a 0.4 percent increase. The Sault and Thunder Bay both saw declines in their populations of -0.4 and -1.1 respectively.
The Northwest during the period 2006 to 2011 worked its way through the aftermath of the forest sector crisis with the region outside of Thunder Bay bearing the brunt of the employment and population adjustment. Employment and GDP in Thunder Bay shrank by about 10 percent during the forest sector crisis and its population has been remarkably resilient given the decline. Employment in the region outside of Thunder Bay shrank by almost 30 percent. Employment numbers over the last year have been showing increases in Thunder Bay and the Northwest and these population results are hopefully a lagging indicator. The Northeast has been buoyed by its mining sector though there is a redistribution of population towards the major urban centers. Evidence from the Northeast suggests that should the Ring of Fire mining development successfully proceed, the Northwest can also expect to see stabilization and even some growth in its population.
What will be interesting is the additional sub-regional breakdowns in population with the Northeast and the Northwest. For example, between 2001 and 2006, while the Northwest declined in population, the Kenora District actually saw increasing population. As well, the aboriginal population increased substantially in the Northwest between 2001 and 2006. Further results and analysis on whether these trends have continued since 2006 to come.
The Northwest during the period 2006 to 2011 worked its way through the aftermath of the forest sector crisis with the region outside of Thunder Bay bearing the brunt of the employment and population adjustment. Employment and GDP in Thunder Bay shrank by about 10 percent during the forest sector crisis and its population has been remarkably resilient given the decline. Employment in the region outside of Thunder Bay shrank by almost 30 percent. Employment numbers over the last year have been showing increases in Thunder Bay and the Northwest and these population results are hopefully a lagging indicator. The Northeast has been buoyed by its mining sector though there is a redistribution of population towards the major urban centers. Evidence from the Northeast suggests that should the Ring of Fire mining development successfully proceed, the Northwest can also expect to see stabilization and even some growth in its population.
What will be interesting is the additional sub-regional breakdowns in population with the Northeast and the Northwest. For example, between 2001 and 2006, while the Northwest declined in population, the Kenora District actually saw increasing population. As well, the aboriginal population increased substantially in the Northwest between 2001 and 2006. Further results and analysis on whether these trends have continued since 2006 to come.
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