Friday, 13 February 2026

BC and Toronto Economy Studies Released

Ontario is not the only Canadian province that has been buffeted by lacklustre economic performance in recent years. Two studies released by the Fraser Institute today highlight both Ontario and British Columbia. The Ontario study by Nathaniel Li and Ben Eisen focuses on Toronto and its role as both Ontario and Canada's economic engine. The other study and accompanying commentary which I have authored looks at British Columbia's economic performance within the context of whether or not BC is headed towards another "lost decade" akin to the performance of the 1990s. See below for the commentary which appears on the Fraser Institute web site with a link to the study itself.

Study and accompanying commentary on the British Columbia economy recently released by the Fraser Institute.

Commentary

February 12, 2026

B.C. government faces another ‘lost decade’ unless it pivots to pro-growth policies

With its inviting climate and magnificent natural setting, British Columbia has long attracted residents. The province’s robust population growth rates, historically above the national average, have been seen as a signal of economic opportunity and success.

However, in recent years, economic growth per person—an important measure of living standards—has stagnated (after adjusting for inflation). In 2025, more British Columbians left the province than moved to it, with a population decline for the first time on record. While B.C. maintains a relatively successful economy with per-person income at or above the Canadian average, it faces numerous economic challenges. In its upcoming February budget, the Eby government should prioritize economic growth.

Again, B.C. has traditionally been among the more prosperous Canadian provinces, but the 1990s and the early 2020s stand out as particularly poor economic periods based on per-person economic growth (inflation-adjusted). The 1990s were known as a “lost decade” in B.C., with per-person economic growth averaging barely one-fifth of one per cent annually (again, after adjusting for inflation).

The spectre of a lost decade has again reared its head as the 2020s have seen per-person economic growth (inflation-adjusted) averaging 0.4 per cent (for perspective, it’s been as high as 1.7 per cent in the 2000s). There are several economic factors driving the slowing growth rate. Critical is the role of business investment. In B.C., gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment (as a share of the economy) has declined sharply, from a peak of 28.2 per cent in 1998 to 10.2 per cent by 2023. Moreover, much economic activity in the province is still tied to residential construction and real estate, and while these sectors support many jobs, they’re not at the heart of building a productive, globally competitive economy.

Exports are a key driver of prosperity in a small open economy such as B.C., but as a share of the provincial economy, total exports peaked at 48.1 per cent in 2000 and then declined, reaching 37.5 per cent by 2023. The average annual growth of inflation-adjusted per-person exports was highest in the 2010s at 2.1 per cent, but the 2020s to date has only seen 0.6 per cent average annual growth. These findings point to a significant decline in the strength and dynamism of B.C.’s export base.

Of course, many will argue that despite these trends, employment growth has been quite respectable. However, much of that growth reflects an expanding government sector, with its employment growing by an average of 5.5 per cent annually since 2020, while private-sector employment has grown at just 1.3 per cent annually and self-employment has declined outright. Private-sector employment (including self-employment) is critical to generating the wealth for achieving higher living standards, and the brisk expansion of B.C.’s government-sector employment has come with burgeoning deficits and skyrocketing government debt—pointing to the likelihood of higher taxes down the road.

This is not a recipe for healthy economic growth and is again reminiscent of the 1990s, which saw 10 consecutive provincial government deficits. The B.C. government is projected to run deficits until at least 2027/28, with provincial net debt rising from $71.3 billion in 2023/24 to $155.8 billion by 2027/28. The net debt-to-GDP ratio—an important measure of the sustainability of debt—is in turn projected to rise over this period from 17.4 per cent to 32.4 per cent, indicating a rapidly deteriorating fiscal position.

Halfway through the 2020s, one can argue that the decade is not yet a lost one for B.C., but the recent trends are discouraging. With weak growth in inflation-adjusted per-person economic growth, a decline in important components of business investment, a weakened export sector, dismal private-sector employment growth, and record budget deficits, it’s time for the Eby government to focus on pro-growth policies in its upcoming budget. Otherwise, British Columbians may indeed face another lost decade.

Monday, 2 February 2026

Budget Season in the GTHA

In municipalities across Ontario, it is budget season and the GTHA is no exception with the City of Toronto the latest to unveil its proposed 2026 budget. The Toronto Budget unveiled today proposed a 2.2 percent residential tax hike which the lowest property tax increase since 2020 and down from the 6.9 percent increase last year and the 9.5 percent increase the year previous. Needless to say, it must be a municipal election year given the moderation in taxation that is marking this year’s Toronto budget season. Down the lake in Hamilton, the election is also weighing heavily on the Mayor and Council given early intimations of increases over 8 percent in September are now replaced with a proposed tax increase of 4.25 percent which is also lower than the increases of the last two years which were 5.6 percent in 2025 and 5.8 percent in 2024.

Of course, a longer-term perspective is also useful in looking at the evolution of municipal taxation in these two largest GTHA municipalities. Figures 1 to 3 provide several municipal taxation comparisons of Toronto and Hamilton and as an added bonus Thunder Bay is thrown in simply to illustrate how we stack up with the largest centers in the GTHA. Figure 1 constructs an index of the total tax levy from 2000 to the proposed 2026 budget estimates with the year 2000 set equal to 100. Figure 2 does the tax levy in nominal per capita dollars. Figure 3 presents the annual percent growth rates in the total tax levy. The data is mainly from the Financial Information Returns with the last few years based on currently available budget data.

Figure 1 shows the tax levy index pretty much rising about the same for all three municipalities. Between 2000 and the 2026 budget estimate, the total tax levy in Toronto will have grown 150 percent while Hamilton’s will have grown 174 percent while Thunder Bay’s somewhat more middling at 168 percent growth. Figure 2 converts the tax levy into a somewhat more personal measure by dividing the municipal population into the levy for an estimate of the tax levy per capita. In dollars per capita, Toronto’s tax levy exceeded that of Hamilton or Thunder Bay from 2000 to about 2005. From 2005 to 2010, all three municipalities had pretty much identical per capita tax levies, but divergence has occurred since then fueled mainly by the more rapid population growth in the GTHA. From 2000 to 2025, Toronto’s municipal population grew almost 40 percent, Hamilton’s 34 percent and Thunder Bay’s 3 percent. By 2026, it is estimated that the per capita municipal tax levy in Thunder Bay will be at $2,148 per capita, followed by Hamilton at $2,060 and Toronto at $1,852.

Finally, Figure 3 plots the annual growth rates in the tax levy and again, they all move approximately in tandem. Over the entire 2001 to 2026 period, the average tax levy increase in Toronto was 3.6 percent, Hamilton was 4 percent and Thunder Bay 3.9 percent. However, since 2020, Thunder Bay has averaged 3.8 percent compared to an average of 5.1 percent for both Toronto and Hamilton.

On average, the increases in the tax levy have been fairly similar over the last 20 years which is to be expected given these are all municipalities in Ontario and subject to similar rules and financial pressures from the provincial government. At the same time, their economies and population growth rates have differed substantially making for differences when tax levies are adjusted for population growth.

Monday, 26 January 2026

Population Growth in Canada's CMAs: An Update

A couple of weeks ago, Statistics Canada updated its population estimates for sub provincial areas including CMAs (Census Metropolitan Areas) and CAs (Census Agglomerations). In terms of the distinction between the two, CMAS have populations of over 100,000 while CAs range from 10,000 to 100,000. As the release noted:

“On July 1, 2025, the total population of Canada's 41 census metropolitan areas (CMAs)—large urban centres with populations above 100,000—reached 31,169,100 people. Following three years marked by strong population growth, CMAs experienced significantly slower population increases from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025 (+1.0%). In contrast, the population grew by 3.5% from July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024. Regions outside of CMAs also experienced slower population growth from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025. Census agglomerations (CAs)—smaller urban centres with populations ranging from 10,000 to 100,000—saw their population grow at a rate of +0.9% during that period, while areas outside CMAs and CAs grew by +0.7%. One year earlier, those areas had recorded growth rates of +2.0% and +1.0%, respectively.”

That population growth slowed in 2025 because of changes to immigration is the key story in this release but what is also interesting is what population change has been like over the entire pandemic and post-pandemic period - from 2020 to 2025 - considering the new updated numbers. Figure 1 plots the ranked percentage growth in population for Canadian CMAs from 2020 to 2025. Over this period, Canada’s population grew from 38.023 million to 41.652 million – an increase of 9.5 percent or 3.623 million. Growth in the urban areas was 10.4 percent for all CMAs and CAs combined and 10.9 percent for the CMAs alone. The fastest population growth was for Moncton (24%), Calgary (20.1%), Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (17.8%), Oshawa (16.3% and Edmonton (15.8%). Out of the 43 CMAs, Vancouver ranked 18^th at 12.3% growth, Toronto ranked 27^th at 9.5% growth and Montreal 41^st at 5.5%.

Of course, what is also of interest to those of us here up North is that northern Ontario CMAs also saw an increase in population with Greater Sudbury seeing an increase from 176,580 to 194,278 – 17,698 more people for an increase of 10 percent. Thunder Bay saw an increase from 128,815 to 133,765 for an increase of 4,950 people or 3.8 percent. Incidentally, of the 43 CMAs, Thunder Bay ranked 43^rd. Naturally, many local boosters will argue that Thunder Bay is unique and comparing Thunder Bay with so many larger centres is like comparing apples and oranges, so Figure 2 provides a ranked comparison with our own local fruit orchard and also includes CAs.

Figure 2 shows that the fastest growth over the 2020 to 2025 period was in North Bay at 13.8 percent. North Bay’s population rose from 73,974 to 84,384. The next largest percent increase was for the Sault which went from 80,757 to 88,307 for an increase of 10.1 percent. Greater Sudbury came in third with an increase of 10 percent while Timmins was 4^th with an increase of 2,999 people or 7.5 percent. Thunder Bay came in 5^th at 3.8 percent and managed to beat out both Elliot Lake (1.6%) and Kenora, which saw a decline of 1.5 percent.

Those are the numbers as they currently stand.

Tuesday, 20 January 2026

House Prices in Thunder Bay and Sudbury Continue to Rise

The latest report on Canadian house prices by Teranet is out and though the focus is on the 11 largest CMAs, there is also data on smaller centres. On an annual basis (December 2024 to December 2025), home prices in Canada using the Teranet composite Index declined by 3.5 percent. Cities in the GTA and southern Ontario in general saw some large annual declines but some other cities, including Thunder Bay and Sudbury climbed substantially. As the report notes:

“The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ fell by 3.5% between December 2024 and December 2025, a steeper decline than the 2.8% drop seen the previous month. However, increases were recorded in seven of the 11 cities that make up the composite index in December. Quebec City led the way with a 12.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Edmonton (+5.1%) and Winnipeg (+5.0%). Conversely, the largest declines were observed in Toronto (-7.8%), Hamilton (-7.8%), and Vancouver (-5.9%). Of the 18 other CMAs not included in the composite index, 12 posted annual declines. Among the declining markets, the sharpest decreases were recorded in Oshawa (-8.2%), Guelph (-8.2%) and Kitchener (-8.0%). Conversely, the largest increases were observed in Lethbridge (+10.1%), Thunder Bay (+9.0%) and Sudbury (+8.8%).”

The accompanying figure plots the ranked year over year price increases (December 2024 to December 2025) for the cities in the Teranet data. Topping the rankings are Quebec City and Lethbridge with year over year house price increases of 12.6 and 10.1 percent. Thunder Bay and Sudbury are at the top of these rankings also in 3^rd and 4^th place respectively with increases of 9.0 and 8.8 percent. Of the ten largest decreases, eight out of the ten largest decreases were cities in Ontario with the other two being in British Columbia.

Overall, the Thunder Bay market is apparently still quite robust. According to the Thunder Bay Real Estate Board, sales of single detached homes in Thunder Bay in December totaled 61 units and overall there were 1,023 home sales in 2025 for an increase of 9.1 percent over 2024. The year-to-date median price for a home in Thunder Bay according to the TBREB was $395,000. As for Sudbury, the Sudbury Real Estate Board saw 110 homes sales in December 2025 and year over year saw sales of 2,618 units for a gain of 2.7 percent from 2024. The average price of a home in Sudbury in 2025 was $505,884 and represented an increase of 5.8 percent from 2024.

If anything, these numbers may give an indication of what cities have been hit the hardest hit by the current economic uncertainty and change. There are 29 cities ranked in the accompanying figure and of those 13 saw an increase in house prices and the remainder a decrease. Of the 16 Canadian cities in this ranking that saw a year over year decline, four of them were in British Columbia and all the rest were in Ontario.

Saturday, 17 January 2026

When Budget Requests Collide: Thunder Bay 2026

Thunder Bay has released its planned 2026 operating budget and as usual there are a plethora of numbers, facts and figures splashed across our local media. This year’s budget is especially interesting given that in the lead up to its release, the messaging from The City was that the tax levy increase would be held to 2.6 percent. However, as it has emerged, this initially did not consider the rather large request from the Police Services Board of a 9.1 percent increase for their requirements as well as larger requests from other external boards. Apparently, those are 'external' and the City itself has done a good job of keeping its increases to 2.6 percent though one should add City Council needs to approve all of these increases if they are to go forward.

Given that police services alone account for 22 percent of the property tax levy, this has bumped up the proposed municipal levy increase to 4.4 percent though the City as usual is doing its after growth schtick and saying it is only 4 percent. With the Growth Plan setting 3 percent in the assessment growth as a target, we can joyfully anticipate the day when there will be a 4 percent levy increase but which only amounts to 1 percent after growth. And as usual, one also needs to factor in the rate-supported budget in all of this. The average residential household will see a 4.1 percent increase in their total Water and Wastewater charges bring the average per household up to $1,479.88 from $1,436.84. As a further note, The City will also be expanding its employment in 2026 adding 57.1 Full Time Equivalent positions in areas such as safety and security, growth, service delivery and to run the 2026 municipal election.

As has been my practice, the accompanying figure plots Thunder Bay’s tax levy increases since 1990 to provide context. The last four years have seen a distinct increase in the tax levy not only from the lows of the pandemic but from the period immediately pre-pandemic. Over the 2023 to 2026 period, the levy increases average 4.7 percent putting this year’s increase slightly below the four-year average but well above the 2015 to 2022 period average of 3 percent.

Of course, the budget still must be ratified and there is a period of public input but the current Thunder Bay City Council is not likely to push back much against what is being asked for even if public opposition emerges given their performance last week largely endorsing the sale of public properties and development as proposed to build new density housing projects in established neighbourhoods. On the other hand, the debate will be interesting to monitor to see what finally emerges given that we are going into an municipal election year.

NORTHERN ECONOMIST 2.0

Northern Economist 2.0

Friday, 13 February 2026

BC and Toronto Economy Studies Released

Study and accompanying commentary on the British Columbia economy recently released by the Fraser Institute.

Commentary

B.C. government faces another ‘lost decade’ unless it pivots to pro-growth policies

Monday, 2 February 2026

Budget Season in the GTHA

Monday, 26 January 2026

Population Growth in Canada's CMAs: An Update

Tuesday, 20 January 2026

House Prices in Thunder Bay and Sudbury Continue to Rise

Saturday, 17 January 2026

When Budget Requests Collide: Thunder Bay 2026

Northern Economist 2.0

Friday, 13 February 2026

BC and Toronto Economy Studies Released

Study and accompanying commentary on the British Columbia economy recently released by the Fraser Institute.

Commentary

B.C. government faces another ‘lost decade’ unless it pivots to pro-growth policies

Monday, 2 February 2026

Budget Season in the GTHA

Monday, 26 January 2026

Population Growth in Canada's CMAs: An Update

Tuesday, 20 January 2026

House Prices in Thunder Bay and Sudbury Continue to Rise

Saturday, 17 January 2026

When Budget Requests Collide: Thunder Bay 2026

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