Ontario Universities: Is More Competition Underway?

 

Ontario universities saw the release this week of the preliminary application statistics for the 2023-24 academic year by OUAC, and they are quite intriguing given that they suggest that there may be a shift underway in how students both apply and make their ultimate choices.  These applications are for full-time, first-year, fall-entry, undergraduate university study or 101s as they are known, and applications are up 2.9 percent this year though the number of applicants is down slightly by about one-firth of one percent.  Figure 1 plots both applications and applicants over the period 2014 to 2023 and though both exhibit a rising trend the number of applicants has been more volatile as a result of the pandemic year. 

 

 

 

What is more interesting is Figure 2 which divides the number of applications by the number of applicants in each year and reveals that over time individual applicants have been applying to more universities.  From 4.6 applications per applicant in 2014 to 5.8 in 2023.  This suggests that students are open to considering more options either because they are shopping around or perhaps to ensure that they get into a program they desire.  In any event, this alone suggests that university recruitment out of Ontario high schools may be getting a bit more competitive.

 

 

 More evidence to this effect is provided in Figures 3 to 5.  Figure 3 ranks Ontario’s universities with constituent affiliated campuses included with the main campus (for example, King’s, Brescia and Huron are included with Western) and there is definitely a pecking order in terms of application totals: Large (University of Toronto, York, McMaster, Toronto Metropolitan, Western, Waterloo and Guelph: 59,218 to 40,461), Medium (Queen's, Ottawa U, Wilfrid Laurier, Carleton, Brock, Trent, Ontario Tech, and Windsor: 37,638 to 10,665) and Small (Lakehead, Laurentian, Nipissing, OCAD, Algoma and Universite de l'Ont Francais: 3573 to 22).  Yes, 22 for Universite de l'Ontario Francais which because it had only 14 applicants last year it registers the largest percent increase in 101s of all Ontario universities at 57 percent making it such an obvious outlier that it is omitted from Figure 4.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 4 plots the universities ranked by the percent increase in preliminary 101 applications in 2023.  Some of the largest increases are for smaller universities.  Of the top 10, only two are in the large university category – Guelph and York – while four are in the medium category – Windsor, Ontario Tech, Wilfrid Laurier and Brock - and the other four are all smaller institution – Nipissing, Laurentian, Lakehead and Algoma. Coincidentally, all four of these are in northern Ontario.  Figure 5 plots the percent increase in 101s applying in 2023 against the number of applications in 2022 for these institutions and there is a definite correlation between size and growth.  Smaller places in terms of previous application numbers on average seem to be seeing higher growth in applications this year.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now, to keep things in perspective, this does not mean that University of Toronto or McMaster are going to have trouble filling their first-year classes this year.  The main competition is still between the bigger places. They have way more applications than they need to fill their spaces making them still the overwhelming choice for most.  The seven largest universities ranked by applications accounted for about 64 percent of applications.  The eight medium sized places accounted for 34 percent and the remaining small universities accounted for just over 2 percent.  The small furry mammals are hardly a threat to the larger denizens of Ontario’s university system.  Still, the fact that their application numbers are up suggests that some students may be becoming more open to venturing outside their home communities which are invariably close to the GTA.  As well, students in these communities with smaller universities may be deciding not to go to school in higher cost centers. The cost of living in the GTA for students away from home is undoubtedly a factor in these inflationary times and so we may be seeing the smaller more out of the way places improving their enrollment at least at the margin.  This should hopefully spill over into budgetary positions given that Ontario universities have faced freezes in both their tuition and government grant revenues.

 

Drummond and the North

Wednesday will see the unveiling of Don Drummond’s recommendations for the repairing of Ontario’s finances.  Ontario is not experiencing the best of times.  Along with its deficit and debt, its economic growth has stalled, its population growth rate is slowing, its high electricity costs have been a factor in the manufacturing sector’s demise, and Ontario is receiving equalization. 

The Premier has promised a “relentless attack” on the deficit. Yet, it is difficult to visualize Ontario’s education and health Premier leading an attack on the spending programs he has invested so much of his reputation in.  Given that he has repeatedly stated he will not raise taxes, he is left with the options of expenditure cuts or economies via transformation and restructuring of government. In the end, there are really only three options for Ontario’s government after Wednesday – raise taxes, cut spending or some combination thereof.  While some of the recommendations Drummond makes may complement these courses of action, there will be no miracles.

Of course, if the Premier is waiting for the Drummond report to show him the way he is bound to be disappointed.  Many of the recommendations and suggestions have already been leaked and they make eminent sense.  The real question is how to go about implementing them. It will be interesting to see what suggestions if any Don Drummond has here. 

For example, universities can possibly save money by having professors teach more and Drummond has said as much in the media.  Yet most Ontario universities have collective agreements with their faculty that specify teaching loads.  Will the Ontario government pass legislation suspending those agreements?  Will the Ontario simply create new “teaching only” universities but which entail spending more money now to save money later?  Or will the Ontario government simply cut grants to universities with guidelines as to how the cuts are to be distributed and to increase teaching loads?  Yet, the grant stick has gotten weaker over the years.  Ontario universities now only get about forty percent of their revenues from government grants.  Will they be allowed to raise tuition more?

How about health care?  Can we transform its delivery by implementing electronic health records?  Sadly, it has already been tried once via the E-Health approach and look where that got the government?  How about more private-public partnerships to create efficient and innovative new service delivery?  Have we not tried that with ORNGE in the case of transport medicine – and where are we now?  How about efficiencies via regionalization in health care by dispersing more responsibilities to the Local Health Integration Networks?  Interestingly enough, Alberta, one of the pioneers in regionalized health care delivery has gone back to a centralized model.  One suspects it is easier to cut global budgets when they are centralized.

And what about Ontario's North?  The recent Census numbers show a stagnant population in a slower growing province.  In some sense, southern Ontario is becoming more like the North given the job losses, unemployment and slower income growth though that will not likely create any additional sympathy for the North.  When the empire is in turmoil, the legions are called back first from the frontier.  Any reductions in government services will have a major impact in our geographically dispersed and thinly populated region.  And what about the Northern Growth Plan and the need for government infrastructure investments in the Ring of Fire?  The government has been remarkably quiet on the Plan to Plan all Plans and one wonders if this means a shift in priorities when it comes to northern economic development policy - assuming that it ever actually was a priority.  Will the Drummond Report deal at all with how to invest in the North's economy in a cost-effective manner?  Will the Drummond Report urge an elimination of government economic development programs such as the Heritage Fund?  Wednesday should be interesting.