The 2021 Census detailed population results have been released and they show that Canada has been undergoing robust population growth that exceeds that of the other G7 countries. According to Statistics Canada: “Approximately 1.8 million more people were calling Canada home in 2021 compared with five years earlier, with four in five of these having immigrated to Canada since 2016. Although the onset of the pandemic slowed population growth from a record high in 2019 (up 583,000 or +1.6%) to its lowest growth rate in a century in 2020 (up 160,000 or +0.4%), Canada's pace of population growth remains the highest in the G7.” Indeed, since 2016, Canada’s population has grown 5.2 percent while Ontario’s has grown by 5.8 percent.
The results for northern Ontario are intriguing given that the long-term propensity in the north has been towards a relatively flat population. After the decline of the 1990s, population in the region stabilized but since 2016 the overall population has also grown albeit at a much lower rate than the rest of the province and the country. Moreover, the growth performance is uneven with some parts of the north seeing increases and others declines. Figure 1 shows the population by northern district as well as regional agglomeration. The north grew 1.2 percent since 2016 – well below the Ontario and Canadian population growth rates.
The northwest saw relatively restrained growth at just over one-fifth of one percent. Within the northwest, Rainy River saw a decline of 3.4 percent while Thunder Bay district and Kenora district saw increases of six-tenths and seven-tenths of a percent respectively. Most of the growth in the north’s population is coming from the northeast which grew 1.6 percent. Even there, there are some differences ranging from lows of -2.6 and -2.2 percent in Timiskaming and Cochrane while Parry Sound saw a 9.5 percent increase, Manitoulin 5.1 percent growth and Sudbury District (including Greater Sudbury) an increase of 2.9 percent. While the north grew by 1.2 percent from 2016 to 2021, the Indigenous population on reserves grew 1.5 percent though even here there were interesting divergences are the approximately 115 Indigenous Reserve divisions. For example, Bearskin Lake grew 26 percent while Pic River shrank by 16 percent.
Like the rest of the country, the greatest population growth was in urban centers though even there the results are quite mixed (Figure 2). Of the five major cities in northern Ontario, three saw population increases in their CMA populations – Thunder Bay (1.4 percent), Greater Sudbury (2.8 percent) and North Bay (1.9 percent). On the other hand, Timmins and Sault Ste. Marie saw declines of 1.5 and 1.8 percent respectively. When some of the smaller towns are examined, often there are declines. White River for example, shrank by nearly 14 percent losing 88 people while Nipigon shrank 10 percent losing about 170 people. Even Kenora managed a slight decline though Elliot Lake grew at the national and provincial rates coming in at 5.9 percent.
These of course are just numbers, but the real question is why the differential growth across the region. Obviously larger centers do better because they offer a better set of amenities and economic opportunities but even being a larger urban center is not a panacea given Timmins and the Sault. Given low rates of natural increase, some northern centers have done a better job at attracting new migrants and overall, the northeast has done better than the northwest given its proximity to southern Ontario. Higher housing costs have seen Toronto’s population growth fall below that of adjacent cities like Hamilton, Barrie, and Kitchener-Waterloo. Some of the exodus has obviously spilled over into the near north regions of Parry sound and Nipissing as well as Sudbury.
