The 2021 Census detailed
population results have been released and they show that Canada has been
undergoing robust population growth that exceeds that of the other G7 countries. According to Statistics Canada: “Approximately
1.8 million more people were calling Canada home in 2021 compared with five
years earlier, with four in five of these having immigrated to Canada since
2016. Although the onset of the pandemic slowed population growth from a record
high in 2019 (up 583,000 or +1.6%) to its lowest growth rate in a century in
2020 (up 160,000 or +0.4%), Canada's pace of population growth remains the
highest in the G7.” Indeed, since 2016, Canada’s population has grown 5.2
percent while Ontario’s has grown by 5.8 percent.
The results for northern Ontario are intriguing given that
the long-term propensity in the north has been towards a relatively flat population. After the decline of the 1990s, population in
the region stabilized but since 2016 the overall population has also grown albeit
at a much lower rate than the rest of the province and the country. Moreover, the growth performance is uneven
with some parts of the north seeing increases and others declines. Figure 1 shows the population by northern district
as well as regional agglomeration. The north grew 1.2 percent since 2016 – well
below the Ontario and Canadian population growth rates.
The northwest saw relatively restrained growth at just over
one-fifth of one percent. Within the northwest,
Rainy River saw a decline of 3.4 percent while Thunder Bay district and Kenora
district saw increases of six-tenths and seven-tenths of a percent
respectively. Most of the growth in the
north’s population is coming from the northeast which grew 1.6 percent. Even
there, there are some differences ranging from lows of -2.6 and -2.2 percent in
Timiskaming and Cochrane while Parry Sound saw a 9.5 percent increase,
Manitoulin 5.1 percent growth and Sudbury District (including Greater Sudbury) an
increase of 2.9 percent. While the north
grew by 1.2 percent from 2016 to 2021, the Indigenous population on reserves
grew 1.5 percent though even here there were interesting divergences are the approximately
115 Indigenous Reserve divisions. For
example, Bearskin Lake grew 26 percent while Pic River shrank by 16
percent.
Like the rest of the country, the greatest population growth
was in urban centers though even there the results are quite mixed (Figure 2). Of the five major cities in northern Ontario,
three saw population increases in their CMA populations – Thunder Bay (1.4
percent), Greater Sudbury (2.8 percent) and North Bay (1.9 percent). On the other hand, Timmins and Sault Ste.
Marie saw declines of 1.5 and 1.8 percent respectively. When some of the smaller towns are examined, often
there are declines. White River for
example, shrank by nearly 14 percent losing 88 people while Nipigon shrank 10
percent losing about 170 people. Even Kenora managed a slight decline though
Elliot Lake grew at the national and provincial rates coming in at 5.9 percent.
These of course are just numbers, but the real question is
why the differential growth across the region. Obviously larger centers do
better because they offer a better set of amenities and economic opportunities
but even being a larger urban center is not a panacea given Timmins and the
Sault. Given low rates of natural
increase, some northern centers have done a better job at attracting new
migrants and overall, the northeast has done better than the northwest given
its proximity to southern Ontario.
Higher housing costs have seen Toronto’s population growth fall below
that of adjacent cities like Hamilton, Barrie, and Kitchener-Waterloo. Some of
the exodus has obviously spilled over into the near north regions of Parry
sound and Nipissing as well as Sudbury.
