NORTHERN ECONOMIST 2.0

Tuesday, 7 April 2020

Tracking COVID-19 in Ontario and Thunder Bay District

The Covid-19 pandemic is now well underway in Ontario. Between March 1st and March 31st, the total number of confirmed cases rose from 15 to 1,966. From the first death on March 17th, the number of deaths grew to 33 by March 31st. Since March 31st, total confirmed cases have grown to reach 4,726 (as of April 7th noon-time) and the total number of deaths have climbed further to reach 153. What is quite interesting is plotting the numbers as the public health sites present case totals but plots to help assess trends are not readily in evidence.

Figure 1 plots the total confirmed cases in Ontario announced to today and they reveal a very steep curve of ascent. What is also interesting is looking at the change in cases per day which is plotted in Figure 2. The number of new cases was the highest on April 2nd at 573 and since then have essentially bounced up and down in a band from 290 to 408. If this latter trend is maintained and then starts to show decline, we may be indeed be at a turning point in the war against COVID-19 but it is still too early to tell.

What is also of interest is what the figures look like here in the Thunder Bay District. It is early days yet in the Thunder Bay District with the first case being reported March 27th. However, as of April 6th, Figure 3 shows what the total cases and the new cases per day looks like. There of course have yet to be any reported deaths in the Thunder Bay District

It is still what looks like a fairly leisurely ascent - somewhat similar to Ontario as a whole in early to mid-March but we are now in early April. The March breakers have been back for about two weeks and hundreds of our local snow birds have also been returning. If we have taken the self-isolation an distancing protocols to heart, then hopefully this will not rise too steeply and also begin to flatten out. We certainly have had plenty of notice and warning given what has happened around the world and in the rest of the country. The next week will be crucial in both Ontario and Thunder Bay District.

Thursday, 2 April 2020

Why Ontario Must Plank the Covid-19 Curve to Avoid Italy's Fate

I'm not an epidemiologist by any stretch of the imagination but economists have data analysis skills that are relevant here. Here are some pretty stark charts of the current Covid-19 crisis in Ontario. Covid-19 in Ontario actually dates from a first confirmed case on January 25th with a first death on March 17th. The figure below plots confirmed cases and the daily change in cases and show a more rapidly escalating curve for total confirmed cases starting around March 11th. The change in the number of cases picks up quite dramatically after about March 27th - not that long ago. From one case on January 25th, Ontario has ramped up gradually with an acceleration over the last week and as of April 2nd, has 2,965 cases. At the time of posting, Ontario had added 573 cases today - the biggest daily increase yet.

If the rates of change are not arrested - that is, the orange line in the above figure first flattens and then declines - one is headed towards a catastrophe. Take the example of Italy. Believe it or not, on January 25th, Ontario had one confirmed Covid-19 case while Italy had zero. Italy acquires two cases on January 31st. From two cases on January31st, the Italian pandemic exploded and as of April 1, stands at 110,574 confirmed cases.

Italy is of course much larger than Ontario in terms of population with about 60 million people compared to Ontario's 14 million so a comparison of cases per million population is useful. As illustrated below, Ontario to date has had a more gradual spread. While Italy is currently at just over 1800 cases per million population, Ontario is at 205 cases. Despite almost identical starting points, Ontario appears to date to have been spared the more rapid increase that occurred in Italy with a key divergence point between the two countries being the first week of March. However, we are at a crucial point given that in Ontario as in Canada as a whole, the tepid rates of increase prior to mid-March lulled us into a false sense of security. Tens of thousands in Ontario and Canada embarked on their March breaks and have since returned. As well, snowbirds and other international travelers have come home. Travel is the key factor in the initial ignition of Covid-19 and its contribution in the post March break period can only be halted by rigid adherence to physical distancing.

If Ontario's infection rates per million and resulting total confirmed cases had behaved like those of Italy, at this point we would - based on Italy's case numbers per million - be at over 26,000 Covid-19 cases in Ontario and with a much larger death toll. As the figure below illustrates when comparing Ontario's actual Covid-19 numbers with a simulated amount using Italian infection spread rates in terms of cases per million, the difference is stark. At Italian rates of spread and infection, Ontario would have reached 400 total cases by March 4 and would now be at just over 26,000.

Such a counterfactual exercise is extremely revealing as to how bad this could have been to date - and how bad it could still get. We cannot afford to be complacent or not take this seriously. Ontario - and Canada - still have the ability to halt this pandemic in its tracks but it requires discipline and adherence to social and physical distancing rules on all our parts before it is too late.

Wednesday, 25 March 2020

COVID-19: China Is Actually Not Hard Hit At All

The international statistics of the COVID-19 outbreak generally show the total number of cases by country and the source of the outbreak - China - has to date the largest total number of cases at 81,218 (as of 12 Noon today from the Worldmeters web site ). Catching up is Italy with 69,176 cases and in third place is the United States at 59,966 followed by Spain at 47,610. However, these numbers do not adjust for the vastly different population sizes of these countries which provides a more accurate assessment of the relative impact relative to population size. China after all has over 1 billion people whereas Luxembourg is under 1 million.

Figure 1 plots the top 30 countries in terms of total case numbers by total cases per 1 million population. The most affected country in terms of cases per 1 million of population is actually Luxembourg at 2,129 cases per 1 million(M) people. Next, comes Switzerland at 1,217 cases per 1M followed by Italy at 1,144 per 1M, then Spain at 1,018 and then Austria at 620. The United States comes in 17th place in this ranking at 77 per 1M and Canada 22nd at 77 total cases per 1M. Where is China? It currently is in 25th place at 56 cases per 1M people.

Figure 2 plots the top 30 countries in terms of total case numbers by total deaths per 1M population. The most deaths per 1M population have occurred in Italy at 113 followed by Spain at 73 and then Iran at 25. The United States currently stands at 2 deaths per 1M people while Canada comes in at 0.7 deaths per 1M. As for China? It ranks 15th virtually tied with the United States at 2 per 1M people.

The failure of the Chinese government to properly take initial steps to contain the spread of the virus enabled it to become a very successful export particularly to those countries with very open economies in terms of trade and travel. That the Chinese government appears to have finally contained the virus within its border is reassuring but the corona virus cat so to speak is now out of the bag. Europe has borne the brunt of the spread. As for deaths, Italy and Spain have truly been outliers with very high death rates and why that is the case is indeed an important question as the rest of the world deals with this situation.

That's all for now.

Monday, 23 March 2020

Covid-19 In Canada: Regional Impact

By now, we are quite used to seeing the daily numbers by province splashed across computer and television screens as the number of Covid-19 cases grows. As of 6pm on March 22nd, there were a total of 1430 confirmed cases in Canada. If we plot those ranked by province as in Figure 1 below, we see that the total number of cases is largest in Ontario at 425, followed by British Columbia at 424. However, what is interesting is that this does not convey the full impact of severity across provinces because this is not adjusted for population. Ontario, for example has approximately two and a half times the population of British Columbia which means on a per capita basis, British Columbia has more cases.

Figure 2 provides these same numbers in terms of cases per 100,000 population. It becomes quite apparent when the provinces are ranked in terms of cases per 100,00 population, that western Canada - particularly British Columbia and Alberta are the hardest hit in terms of cases at 8.3 and 5.9 cases per 100,000 of population. They are then followed by Ontario and Nova Scotia at 2.9 cases per 100,000 each. Saskatchewan clocks in next at 2.8, Quebec at 2.6, the Northwest Territories at 2.2, PEI at 1.9 and New Brunswick at 1.2. The remaining provinces and territories currently have less than 1 per 100,000 of population.

That is all for now.

Saturday, 21 March 2020

It Is Time to Declare a National Emergency

In his address to the nation earlier today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that he was not ready to declare a national emergency in regards to Covid-19 but that the federal government was studying the data and all options were still on the table. The number of cases in Canada today has reached over 1300 and there are now 20 deaths. If we are going to get this crisis under control, we need to completely shut the country down for two weeks - that is, there must be a lock-down in which everyone except essential workers in health, public security, and food and medical supply is restricted to their home and can only emerge either to shop for groceries, fill prescriptions at pharmacies, or obtain emergency medical care. Moreover, this needs to be enforced by public authorities with the power to stop individuals and ask why they are out and about or why they are in a group and not maintaining social distance.

This must be done sooner rather than later. This may seem to be an overreaction but in this type of situation it is better to overreact rather than under react if we want to have any hope of getting this under control and avoid what is happening in Spain or Italy. We have had more lead time than those countries did and yet the federal government appears timid in its response. The decision lag continues. It is individual businesses and respective provincial governments that are taking action by declaring emergencies and implementing changes in how things are done.

The emergency economic action taken by the federal government is important but will not be effective if people are afraid. The best way to protect the economy is to protect the health of Canadians and give then the confidence that comes with knowing the health effects of COVID-19 are being contained. Perhaps, the federal government may feel that health is a provincial responsibility but under our constitution, the federal government has the overarching responsibility for peace, order and good government, the spending power and even the power of quarantine. Is the government waiting to repatriate everyone from abroad trying to get back? But how can they all come back if other countries are shutting their borders and airlines are stopping flights?

Who really knows what is driving the current federal response. One imagines if the elder Trudeau was currently Prime Minister, one would have seen the imposition of the War Measures Act to deal with this crisis. As draconian as that sounds, what other options are there to get people to stay home, comply with social distancing and stop the spread of the virus?