The Covid-19 pandemic is now well underway in Ontario. Between March 1st and March 31st, the total number of confirmed cases rose from 15 to 1,966. From the first death on March 17th, the number of deaths grew to 33 by March 31st. Since March 31st, total confirmed cases have grown to reach 4,726 (as of April 7th noon-time) and the total number of deaths have climbed further to reach 153. What is quite interesting is plotting the numbers as the public health sites present case totals but plots to help assess trends are not readily in evidence.
Figure 1 plots the total confirmed cases in Ontario announced to today and they reveal a very steep curve of ascent. What is also interesting is looking at the change in cases per day which is plotted in Figure 2. The number of new cases was the highest on April 2nd at 573 and since then have essentially bounced up and down in a band from 290 to 408. If this latter trend is maintained and then starts to show decline, we may be indeed be at a turning point in the war against COVID-19 but it is still too early to tell.
What is also of interest is what the figures look like here in the Thunder Bay District. It is early days yet in the Thunder Bay District with the first case being reported March 27th. However, as of April 6th, Figure 3 shows what the total cases and the new cases per day looks like. There of course have yet to be any reported deaths in the Thunder Bay District
It is still what looks like a fairly leisurely ascent - somewhat similar to Ontario as a whole in early to mid-March but we are now in early April. The March breakers have been back for about two weeks and hundreds of our local snow birds have also been returning. If we have taken the self-isolation an distancing protocols to heart, then hopefully this will not rise too steeply and also begin to flatten out. We certainly have had plenty of notice and warning given what has happened around the world and in the rest of the country. The next week will be crucial in both Ontario and Thunder Bay District.
