COVID19 Update for Ontario and Thunder Bay District

 Reported COVID19 cases in Ontario are falling as are hospitalizations .  The current wave of COVID19 appears to be in decline in the province as a whole with today seeing 1,593 cases reported.  As Figure 1 illustrates, the fifth wave has been the largest in terms of cases report with the first and forth waves receding into practical insignificance relatively.  Relative to the number of cases, the mortality rate from COVID has dropped during this fifth Omicron wave.  At the same time, the absolute number of deaths are the largest yet as Figure 2 illustrates, and while recent days have seen a drop in numbers, the LOWESS smooth suggests that a drop is not yet underway.  Ontario is moving into a relaxation of COVID protocols starting March 1st which makes sense given the drop in cases as well as the effective mortality rate.  From January 2020 to August 31st 2021 there were 9511 deaths and a total of 566,719 cases for an effective death rate from COVID19 of 1.7 percent.  From September 1st, 2021  to the present there were 509,679 recorded cases and 2,599 deaths for a mortality rate of 0.5 percent.  Thus, the mortality rate if you get COVID-19 based on these statistics has fallen by two-thirds. 

In the Thunder Bay District, things seem a little different in terms of cases.  As Figure 3 shows, there is no decline yet in the current wave.  Numbers are still trending up and why this is occurring is something that the local public health unit has not shed too much light on.  Some of it is definitely spread in institutional settings but the disturbing aspect is that while hospitalizations are going down in the rest of the province, they are staying pretty much level in the Thunder Bay District. On the bright side, this current wave has not generated an absolute number of deaths (Figure 4) greater than the earlier waves as is the case for Ontario as a whole.  On the other hand, there is a slow and gentle upward trend in deaths at the moment.  

 

 

Needless to say, Thunder Bay is lagging at present in its COVID19 performance and the reasons for it are unclear at least to those of us in the general public at large.  While Ontario as a whole seems ready for the relaxation of protocols effective March 1st, Thunder Bay is not.  On the other hand, it could be that Thunder Bay as a whole has become much more relaxed with respect to its attitudes towards COVID19 already thereby generating the different trend.  Perhaps, Thunder Bay is  already providing a picture of what an endemic phase to COVID19 might look like.

COVID-19 In Thunder Bay Skyrocketing

 Today's announced new COVID-19 case amount in Thunder Bay District stands at 41 bringing the total since the start of the pandemic to 1,418 and the current number of active cases is at 273.  The District's Chief Medical Officer has suggested that we could be headed back to lock-down though given that the surge over the last two weeks was obviously incubated during the last lock-down one wonders if it will matter.  The problem is apparently largely tied to an outbreak among the homeless population in Thunder Bay though given the crowds packing shopping malls and a local ski resort over the last week in the wake of the lifting of the lock-down, it is likely the surge is going to continue.  In addition, while the recent surge is tied to the city's homeless population, it remains that there have now been several good-sized outbreaks in local schools the biggest at McKellar Park.

This is a pretty grim situation.  We can draw only limited comfort from the fact that the total outbreak to date has resulted in a total case count per 100,000 population as of February 23rd still substantially below that of the province as a whole - at 971 cases per 100,000 versus 2003 cases per 100,000 for the province as illustrated in Figure 1.  However, while the provincial total finally seems to be flattening out a bit, Thunder Bay's appears to have picked up steam as Figure 2 illustrates more  clearly.  

 

Figure 2 plots plots the daily change in cases per 100,000 for both Ontario and the Thunder Bay District since the start of the pandemic and here one can more clearly see that since the start of January, we have been definitely bucking the provincial trend.  While Ontario actually began trending down starting the first week of January, that is when we began to move in the opposite direction.  One wonders aside from the shutting of businesses, how much compliance there really has been with requests to not socialize on the part of the general public in Thunder Bay.  

 

 

This is exceedingly worrisome because even if the surge to date is a result of close contact with some of the other outbreaks - such as those affecting the jail and correctional center - the fact that it appears to be spreading more broadly amongst both the homeless population as well as in the schools makes it ever more likely it will spread further.  The flouting of social distancing and safety protocols this last week at local big box stores and the mall as well as the gathering of hundreds outdoors at a local ski resort have merely provided further opportunities.  If cases spike even further over the next two weeks, it will be unlikely that we can rein things in.  After all, in terms of the current daily increases in cases per 100,000, we are at the peak that Ontario was at in early January and there is no evidence it is slowing down.

The COVID-19 Surge in Ontario and Thunder Bay District

 

The COVID-19 case count is surging in Ontario and is even affecting more remote parts of the province that saw a relatively mild first wave – such as the Thunder Bay District. It has been a while since I plotted my provincial and local numbers with trend and presented a visual update, so here it is. Figure 1 plots the daily number of cases in Ontario with a LOWESS smooth that highlights the trend.  The second wave of cases is as known already much larger than the first and is definitely poised to continue surging. Based on the trend line, one can easily expect to see 3,000 cases per day within three weeks which brings us the early December.  More ominous is the rise in death rates shown in Figure 2 and here while there is an upward trend, the second wave so far has seen a milder death toll than the first wave.  However, if one extrapolates that trend line, one could see the death toll hit the levels of the first wave in about three weeks also.  Needless to say, the trends are not pointing to a good place.

 

 

 

 

As for Thunder Bay,  one expects the smugness should be over but Thunder Bay is a stubborn place.  Many in Thunder Bay have been carrying on in their splendid isolationism as if they were somehow exempt from infectious spread given the low number of cases and only one death to date.  As Figure 3 shows, the District was largely spared during the first wave not so much by superior behavior but by geographic distance, low population density and good luck.   

 

 

 

The luck seems to have ended given the large number of close contact cases over the last week.  There has finally been a local super spreader event though the demographic affected at this point appears to be a younger one.  Whether this can be contained and spread to more vulnerable demographics prevented remains to be seen.  If nothing happens to curtail the current trend, at the current trend rate of increase, within three weeks one can expect 25 to 30 cases per day.  And, eventually there will be more deaths.

COVID-19 Trends in Thunder Bay District

Thunder Bay District's first COVID-19 case was reported about one month ago - on March 26th.  Since then, the number of cases have grown but the number of daily new cases appears to have declined from the peak reached April 15th.  We have however, also registered out first death as of April 23rd and given mortality rates from the illness, one can probably expect a couple more deaths based on current case load numbers.  The first figure below shows the steady ascent from the first case to the current (as of yesterday) total of 63.



The ascent appears to have slowed since the 21st and the next figure plotting daily new cases does appear to show a distinct hump peaking somewhere between April 11th and April 15th.  If over the next week, growth in new cases drys up completely then it may be that the pandemic has failed to take firm root in our part of Ontario.  This is certainly good news, but not a cause to relax given the need to maintain physical distancing protocols and precautions in the absence of either a cure or a vaccine.



Its not over yet. Maintaining personal discipline over the next few months is crucial to arresting the progress of this virus.

Tracking COVID-19 in Ontario and Thunder Bay District

The Covid-19 pandemic is now well underway in Ontario.  Between March 1st and March 31st, the total number of confirmed cases rose from 15 to 1,966. From the first death on March 17th, the number of deaths grew to 33 by March 31st. Since March 31st, total confirmed cases have grown to reach 4,726 (as of April 7th noon-time) and the total number of deaths have climbed further to reach 153.  What is quite interesting is plotting the numbers as the public health sites present case totals but plots to help assess trends are not readily in evidence. 

Figure 1 plots the total confirmed cases in Ontario announced to today and they reveal a very steep curve of ascent.  What is also interesting is looking at the change in cases per day which is plotted in Figure 2.  The number of new cases was the highest on April 2nd at 573 and since then have essentially bounced up and down in a band from 290 to 408.  If this latter trend is maintained and then starts to show decline, we may be indeed be at a turning point in the war against COVID-19 but it is still too early to tell.











 

What is also of interest is what the figures look like here in the Thunder Bay District.  It is early days yet in the Thunder Bay District with the first case being reported  March 27th.  However, as of April 6th, Figure 3 shows what the total cases and the new cases per day looks like.  There of course have yet to be any reported deaths in the Thunder Bay District



It is still what looks like a fairly leisurely ascent - somewhat similar to Ontario as a whole in early to mid-March but we are now in early April. The March breakers have been back for about two weeks and hundreds of our local snow birds have also been returning.  If we have taken the self-isolation an distancing protocols to heart, then hopefully this will not rise too steeply and also begin to flatten out.  We certainly have had plenty of notice and warning given what has happened around the world and in the rest of the country.  The next week will be crucial in both Ontario and Thunder Bay District.