Why Ontario Must Plank the Covid-19 Curve to Avoid Italy's Fate

I'm not an epidemiologist by any stretch of the imagination but economists have data analysis skills that are relevant here. Here are some pretty stark charts of the current Covid-19 crisis in Ontario. Covid-19 in Ontario actually dates from a first confirmed case on January 25th with a first death on March 17th.  The figure below plots confirmed cases and the daily change in cases and show a more rapidly escalating curve for total confirmed cases starting around March 11th.  The change in the number of cases picks up quite dramatically after about March 27th - not that long ago.  From one case on January 25th, Ontario has ramped up gradually with an acceleration over the last week and as of April 2nd, has 2,965 cases.  At the time of posting, Ontario had added 573 cases today - the biggest daily increase yet.



If the rates of change are not arrested - that is, the orange line in the above figure first flattens and then declines - one is headed towards a catastrophe.  Take the example of Italy.  Believe it or not, on January 25th, Ontario had one confirmed Covid-19 case while Italy had zero.  Italy acquires two cases on January 31st. From two cases on January31st, the Italian pandemic exploded and as of April 1, stands at 110,574 confirmed cases.

Italy is of course much larger than Ontario in terms of population with about 60 million people compared to Ontario's 14 million so a comparison of cases per million population is useful.  As illustrated below, Ontario to date has had a more gradual spread.  While Italy is currently at just over 1800 cases per million population, Ontario is at 205 cases.  Despite almost identical starting points, Ontario appears to date to have been spared the more rapid increase that occurred in Italy with a key divergence point between the two countries being the first week of March.  However, we are at a crucial point given that in Ontario as in Canada as a whole, the tepid rates of increase prior to mid-March lulled us into a false sense of security.  Tens of thousands in Ontario and Canada embarked on their March breaks and have since returned.  As well, snowbirds and other international travelers have come home.  Travel is the key factor in the initial ignition of Covid-19 and its contribution in the post March break period can only be halted by rigid adherence to physical distancing.


If Ontario's infection rates per million and resulting total confirmed cases had behaved like those of Italy, at this point we would - based on Italy's case numbers per million - be at over 26,000 Covid-19 cases in Ontario and with a much larger death toll.  As the figure below illustrates when comparing Ontario's actual Covid-19 numbers with a simulated amount using Italian infection spread rates in terms of cases per million, the difference is stark. At Italian rates of spread and infection, Ontario would have reached 400 total cases by March 4 and would now be at just over 26,000. 



Such a counterfactual exercise is extremely revealing as to how bad this could have been to date - and how bad it could still get.  We cannot afford to be complacent or not take this seriously.  Ontario - and Canada - still have the ability to halt this pandemic in its tracks but it requires discipline and adherence to social and physical distancing rules on all our parts before it is too late.