Once a month is usually sufficient to provide an update of the COVID-19 case count numbers and associated trends but things are moving rapidly this month, especially in Thunder Bay, so an update mid-month is timely. Today's daily case count was 1,268 for Ontario bringing the total up to 319,373 while for Thunder Bay there was an increase of 51 bringing the total count up to 2,390. Figure 1 does the Ontario COVID-19 daily case count plot with LOWESS smooth for trend and it appears the downward trend has come to a halt with an uptick now being detected. The new variants seem to be responsible for increasing case counts around the province and if they continue to gain hold we will have the third wave. However, the trend for deaths from COVID-19 remains on a downward path as illustrated in Figure 2.
As for the Thunder Bay District, well based on Figure 3 we are still upward bound. As our District Chief Medical Officer of Health has noted, the coronavirus is probably everywhere in Thunder Bay but that still has not blunted the public's enthusiasm for carrying on as usual if one is to judge street traffic levels as well as store and mall parking lots over the last week. The public's seeming lack of concern seems to be at odds with local public health officials and politicians. The Mayor of Thunder Bay mid last week was on CBC Newsworld and making a case for Thunder Bay as a hot zone and the need for additional assistance including being included in the province's drug store pilot for AstraZeneca distribution.
The only odd thing was that the Mayor's lobbying effort was a little late given that the program had already been effectively announced the previous week meaning the provincial planning for this had been in the works for some time. Thunder Bay's case count ascent has been underway since January. One suspects that many variables go into the province designating hot zones (not that anyone is transparent and willing to reveal what they are) and Thunder Bay is probably considered still a low "risk" because its spread is largely contained to itself given its relative isolation. If a growing hot zone is adjacent to a large metropolitan center of millions of people, the problem has a different dimension. Despite some remarks on social media that this is party politics at work, it is not. It is geography.
In Ontario as cases start to mount and the new more contagious variants spread, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the only thing that will blunt this upsurge is widespread vaccination. On the plus side, the vaccine delivery process is starting to ramp up but it is now a question of speed. However, to vaccinate 14 million Ontario residents (with just one dose) by the end of June requires that we dispense nearly 1 million shots a week. This should not be a problem given that Ontario usually orders enough flu shots to vaccinate 30-40 percent of its population every year. In an average year 5-6 million flu shots are dispensed in just a few months. It is not beyond the province's technical ability to effectively double that rate in an emergency. Indeed, the Premier has stated that the province has the ability to administer 4.8 million vaccine shots a month. Yet it is currently running at about a quarter of that rate or about 300,000 shots a week because in the end you need a vaccine supply.
So here is the ultimate race. The public is tired of following rules - not that they were ever particularly good at doing so aside for a few weeks last spring when they were actually terrified. As it became apparent that the result of getting COVID-19 for 90 percent of the population was a relatively mild illness, they have been doing their own interpretations of what social distancing and social gathering restrictions mean. At the same time, the virus has been evolving - while the public response has been devolving so to speak - and becoming more contagious so case counts are starting to rise again. And the final element - the supply of vaccine - which is still not coming in quick enough and probably never will given that we do not have the capability to manufacture our own.
