Thoughts on Canada's Economic Future

I was invited to make a contribution on Canada's economy and its future by TheFutureEconomy.ca which is an online media outlet "that produces interviews, panels, and op-eds featuring leaders from industry, government, academia and more to define a strong vision for our future economy."  My piece on Canada's economic challenges in coming years was published January 8th and titled:"Childhood's End: Canada's 21st Century Challenges."It was a privilege to be asked to contribute to this site given the range of leaders from across Canada who have also contributed their thoughts.  There is also a nice promotional link with a bio and describing Lakehead University.  The piece starts below and you can link to the site for the remainder:

In the pandemic’s wake, Canada finds itself in a world changed yet again with forces afoot that threaten its standard of living as well as its security and way of life. After nearly 150 years of operating under the umbrellas of relatively benign global superpowers, Canada needs to prepare for a multipolar world with respect to trade and economic growth opportunities that are linked to its foreign policy and defence capabilities. In many respects, Canada’s long adolescence has come to a rude end, and it must now learn to make its way in the world in a more adult fashion. This awakening, however, comes at a time when its economic indicators suggest economic weakness. Canada came to be...

Moving Beyond the Pandemic in Ontario

 

With each passing day, the new COVID-19 case count has been diminishing in Ontario.  Today’s tally was 114 and there were zero deaths.  Indeed, the number of daily deaths has been in the single digits since July 1^st.  For Thunder Bay District, the last while has  seen a zero daily case count more often than not  There are only two active cases in the District and the hospital has no COVID cases.  And vaccination rates continue to grow with 69 percent of all people in Ontario having received at least one dose and 47 percent being fully vaccinated with two doses.  For the time being, the pandemic is practically over, and the province is slowly reopening its economy with the third stage set to begin this Friday.

 

 

 

Moving forward, the challenge is many-fold.  First, the damage done to the economy is significant.  Ontario had the most protracted lock down in Canada and indeed in much of the developed world.  There are many businesses that after such a protracted lock down will not reopen.  The implications for business formation and investment is serious.  Moreover, the reopening is proceeding at such a slow pace that it may indeed be too late for many businesses.  Employment is rebounding but we are still not where we were before the pandemic.  In 2019, total employment in Ontario stood at 7.377 million employed persons.  In 2020 it fell to an annualized 7.022 million. As of June 2021, the most recent numbers suggest that at 7.273 million, we are still not there yet.

 

And, try getting anything done.  Employment and labour force participation have both shrunk.  The labour shortage which has been underway due to the aging of the population has been made worse with the shutdown and withdrawal of labour not to mention the reduced immigration of the last year.  Indeed, if Thunder Bay is any indicator, trying to get anything done in terms of household repairs and services is very difficult. Everyone is booked and prices have gone up.  Thunder Bay was always a difficult place to get things done without a bevy of personal connections often acquired in high school and the problems seem to have become worse in the wake of the pandemic. 

 

Yet the recovery continues, but much depends on what happens next with the pandemic.  The summer is a golden time and for the post-pandemic recovery to continue beyond September vaccination rates must continue to rise.  With new variants percolating around the world and travel resuming, getting total double vaccination rates above 80 percent is crucial.  September and the return to more indoor activity will be an important test as to whether or not we really have got things under control.

 

While it is important to relax restrictions as normalcy returns there is one restriction that should be maintained for the remainder of the summer and into the fall and it should be a very simple one – if you are in an indoor public space, you must wear a mask.  It is true other provinces are already moving away from this but in my opinion this is premature.  I think you can probably open everything up for indoor activity – gyms, theaters, dining etc… with fairly generous capacity constraints but the one thing that should be maintained is a face mask particularly this fall. Even in a restaurant, except at your table with your designated dining partner or party, there needs to be a face mask on the way in and as soon as you leave your table with servers always masked.  It’s a simple rule and one with the greatest benefits in preventing a resurgence until the vaccination rates are much higher.  

 

Whether we are up to this final task or plan to throw this modest caution to the winds remains to be seen.