The last few days of daily Covid-19 case counts for Ontario
show a small spike. As Figure 1
illustrates, from daily case counts just over 1,000 in early June, the numbers
declined and bottomed out in mid-July where they hit a low of 114 and have since begun to move up again. Today’s count was 325 which was down from 423
yesterday. Whether this marks a new wave
is still be seen. There have been
similar spikes from time to time over the last three months and the current one
is probably a function of reopening as well as circulation of the Delta
variant. However as Figure 2 shows, the
trend as depicted by a LOWESS smooth so far suggests that an upsurge is not
underway.
That is not to say that we might not be in for a fourth wave
but given the current rate of vaccination in Ontario and the maintenance of
public masking requirements, it should not be as pronounced as the previous two
waves and hospitalization rates should definitely be less. In the end, it was always about hospital
capacity being overwhelmed and Ontario’s low per capita hospital bed numbers was
one of the key reasons for protracted lockdowns and social restrictions.
Vaccination rates are currently very good. For people aged
50 and over, the two-dose vaccination
rates range from 75 percent (50-59) to 93 percent (80+). Seventy percent of 40-49 year-olds have
received two doses and 64 percent of 30-39 year-olds. Meanwhile, those 18-29 are at 58 percent and ages
12-17 are at 52 percent. There is still
room for improvement. Moreover, daily vaccination
rates appear to have fallen which is where the Achilles Heel of the current
situation lies. In early July nearly 160,000 people a day were receiving second
doses but that has fallen to below 30,000 in recent days.
So, whether or not there is a pronounced 4th wave
will largely depend on the speed and severity with which the more transmissible
Delta variant goes through the unvaccinated population. Even with full vaccination status, one can
still get and transmit the virus but the severity of the disease is greatly reduced.
As of today, 9.343 million Ontarians are fully vaccinated – out of a total
population of 14.790 million – that works out to 63 percent of the total
population. That is still a long way
from needed herd immunity estimates that have ranged from 75 to 90 percent. So, it is not over yet.
