Ontario’s economy over the last decade has seen the GTA-Waterloo-Barrie
triangle as the province's employment growth engine with the Ottawa region thrown
in for good measure. The rest of the
province has seen more differential and often slower employment growth.
While many in northern Ontario might feel that all of southern Ontario
is a cornucopia of economic growth it remains that even this region is not homogeneous. One interesting region a stone’s throw from
the GTA is of course the Niagara region which can be subdivided into the
Hamilton area at the head of the lake and St. Catharines-Niagara along the remainder
of the Niagara peninsula.
Figures 1 and 2 show employment in these two sub regions of
Niagara for the period 2006 to 2021. After
almost a decade of stability, Hamilton saw an employment boom after 2016 which
saw about 30,000 jobs – an 8 percent increase – added literally overnight. While there was a drop during the pandemic,
the rebound has returned employment to almost where it was during the boom
suggesting that this is a permanent expansion in its employment base. Between 2006 and 2019, St. Catharines-Niagara
added about 12,000 jobs – an expansion of 6 percent over a much longer
term. However, the pandemic rebound does
not seem to have taken hold in the region and employment now is back where it
was over a decade ago.
This differential performance between two sub-regions adjacent
to the GTA is largely a function of Hamilton’s closer proximity to Toronto
which is fueling a construction boom in residential development both detached
and multi-unit. The downtown area is
seeing numerous high density condominium units and even the rest of the city
particularly on the mountain fringe demarked by beyond Rymal Road is seeing
residential development. Of course the
continued expansion of residential sub-divisions is causing concern as adjacent
farmland is being taken out of service and urban sprawl proceeds. This of course raises an interesting dilemma
as on the one hand, housing has become extremely unaffordable in Hamilton over
the last couple of years in part because of supply constraints in the face of
increasing demand.
However, it is not just all residential construction. There have been quite a few non-residential
projects over the last few years including a new Amazon distribution center
currently underway near the airport area, and expanding transport, retail and research facilities.
The result is employment growth as Hamilton becomes increasingly integrated
into the Mississauga Conurbation stretching from Oshawa-Whitby in the east to
Hamilton with feelers stretching down to St. Catharines. The launch of hourly GO-Train service into
Hamilton this month is the final linchpin that will make the city a home to
more Toronto based employees. However,
without an expansion in housing supply whether high density infill or new
greenfield, housing prices will likely continue to rise. This risks pricing local residents out of their own city - something that is already happening.
