Northern Economist 2.0

Wednesday, 8 November 2023

Adam Smith and the Federal Carbon Tax

 

Canada’s modern tax system is really the result of over a century of impromptu tax policy driven by the events of the day.  After all, the modern system was hastily thrown together in about a five-year period from 1916 to 1921 in order to generate revenues for pursuing Canada’s role in the Great War and gave us the personal income tax, the corporate income tax, and the federal sales tax.  The most serious efforts at some type of over-arching and comprehensive tax reform driven by principles, theory and analysis were probably the Royal Commission on Taxation or Carter Commission (1962-1967) and the White Paper on Tax Reform Wilson Reforms (1987).

 

With respect to the Carter Commission, commentators of the day remarked it was “marked by lucidity of analysis, candor in exposing its presuppositions, fairness in the presentation, of alternatives, and modesty in disclaiming infallibility. It is, in short, not a White Paper designed to prop up a debatable fait accompli, but a work of scholarship, culminating in recommendations for action, that frankly acknowledges when it moves beyond the boundaries of objectivity and expertise, rather than seeking to blur or shift these limits” (Bittker).  The Carter Commission stressed simplicity, fairness and balance but opposition to the specific reforms proposed was intense and implementation was generally lacklustre though the current integrated approach to personal and corporate taxation was a long-term result (Norquay). 

 

The Wilson White Paper, despite the view of some that it was to justify a fait accompli, on the other hand was a much more successful effort at tax reform and it implemented the Carter Commission mantra that the base for income taxation be broadened and the rates lowered (Norquay) and created a three-bracket personal income tax system with lower rates than the previous system with many more brackets and higher rates.  Key principles underlying the reforms were fairness, equity, and incentives for work and investment.  However, the Wilson reforms were two pronged and along with income tax reform it also replace the flawed Federal Sales Tax known as the Manufacturer’s Sales Tax (MST) with the new GST.  The benefits of the income tax changes were quickly forgotten when the GST came along several years later with political repercussions for the governing party of the day that are now history.  While the GST was a well-designed tax that broadened the base, it was highly visible replacing the hidden MST which was built into the price of manufactured items and a millstone around the manufacturing sector’s competitiveness. Despite the analysis and principles, the Wilson Reforms ultimately paid a political price though they remain in effect for the most part today.

 

Which brings us to the current federal carbon tax or more specifically the recent federal intervention exempting home heating oil from the federal carbon tax in Atlantic Canada which has generated a wave of dissatisfaction a mare usque ad mare. The basic economic principles behind the current federal carbon tax were generally sound.  Most economists agree that if you want more of anything, you should subsidize it whereas if you want less of anything, you should tax it.  Public finance theory puts forth in the case of activities with negative external effects such as pollution, the Pigouvian tax which raises the cost of the offending activity and therefore internalizes the externality.  Now the federal carbon tax was designed to discourage the use of fossil fuels and help fight climate change and is generally a pretty good example of a Pigouvian tax though with the added twist of rebates primarily to lower incomes to help with the more regressive effects of consumption type taxes.

 

The decision by the Trudeau government to placate Atlantic Canada generally undermines the role of the current carbon tax as a tool against climate change and indeed threatens to unravel the whole thing.  Hell, hath no fury like a taxpayer not exempted from a tax when others are, and the federal government will likely reap a political price for what seems to be a pretty brazen attempt to shore up regional political support.  All of this would have been avoided if the federal government had paid just the least bit of attention to past efforts at tax reform and tax change offered by the Carter Commission or the Wilson Reforms.  Terms like “fairness and balance” or “fairness and equity” come to mind from those past forays into taxation changes.  Perhaps those efforts were too complicated for the current federal government?

 

One can go further back for tax advice, all the way to Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations where he elucidates quite clearly and simply on what makes a good tax system and provides the four: “Maxims of Taxation.” Namely:

 

I.               The subjects of every state ought to contribute towards the support of government, as nearly as possible, in proportion to their respective abilities. (Equality)

II.              The tax which each individual is bound to pay ought to be certain, and not arbitrary. (Certainty)

III.            Every tax ought to be levied at the time, or in the manner in which it is most likely to be convenient for the contributor to pay it. (Convenience of payment).

IV.            Every tax ought to be so contrived as both to take out and to keep out of the pockets of the people as little as possible, over and above what it brings into the public treasury of the state. (Economy in collection).

 

The Trudeau government’s move to exempt home heating oil in Atlantic Canada but not all sources of home heating wherever they may be in the country adds porosity to the tax that will create a clamour for more exemptions given that many view the current exemption is both unfair and arbitrary.  One can debate whether it takes out of people’s pockets as little as possible.  If fighting climate change is as important as the government claims it is, then this exemption illustrates a retreat from core principles.  In the end, fighting climate change when necessary but not necessarily fighting climate change suggests not a principled government but an opportunistic one. 

 


 

Friday, 3 November 2023

Ontario’s 2023 Fall Economic and Fiscal Statement: Some Thoughts

 

Finance Minister Bethlenfalvy released Ontario’s fall 2023 fiscal and economic update and a perusal of the numbers tells a number of stories.  First, the province is expecting the economy to slow down with consequent effects on its revenues though the current outlook for the current fiscal year 2023-24 shows tax revenues up just over 3 percent while 2024-25 and 2025-26 are currently projected at growth of 3.3 and 6.1 percent respectively.  Indeed, the period from 2022-23 to 2024-26 is expecting to see total revenues up 14 percent.  Over the same period total program spending is expected to rise  by 8.5 percent, debt interest by 22.6 percent and total expenditure will be up by 9.4 percent. 

 

Thus, revenues are projected to grow faster than expenditures but the gap between revenues and expenditures will persist until 2025-26 when a small surplus of 500 million dollars is forecast.  However, given spending that year includes a reserve of $2 billion set aside, it is likely the surplus that year will be much bigger. An economic slowdown notwithstanding, the province appears to want to keep a deficit on the books for as long as possible no doubt in part as a cautionary measure given economic uncertainty but also to quell demands for more public spending.  And as for economic uncertainty, employment is expected to grow each year until 2026 and the unemployment rate at its highest will reach 6.6 percent before declining to 5.8 percent by 2026. Hardly the recessions and downturns of yesteryear.

 

However, two items did catch my eye.  First, for 2023-24, the net public debt is expected to take a bit of a leap to $416 billion.  From 2018-19 to 2023-24, the net debt will have grown from $338 billion to $416 billion, an increase of 78 billion dollars or 23 percent.  However, deficits over that same period only sum to $42 billion.  In other words, an amount over and above the sum of accumulated deficits of $36 billion has been added to the net debt.  While this is of course likely the result of current government accounting practices that book capital and infrastructure expenditures separately from the operating expenditures, it is nevertheless a sizeable increase to see. 

 

More seriously, is the following.  If one takes past, current, and projected nominal GDP for Ontario, factors in inflation using the CPI as well as assumes population growth going forward at the medium Finance Ministry scenario of 250,000 people a year (about 1.7 percent), one gets a picture of real per capita GDP in Ontario that suggests that by 2025, real per capita GDP will be no higher than it was in 2017.  If one looks at the accompanying figure, despite ebbs and flows (with a particularly large ones circa the pandemic) as well as the early 1990s) real per capita GDP growth has been noticeably slower since about 2000.  The average annual growth rate in real per capita GDP from 1960 to 1999 averaged 2.1 percent while from 2000 to what is projected by 2025 the growth rate is 0.5 percent. 

 

 


 

You can blame some of this on population growing more quickly over the last few years, but the real culprit is that productivity growth in Ontario is lack lustre.  The long-term effects of productivity decline have begun to manifest themselves in our standard of living.  Real per capita GDP in 2022 in $2020 is $64,170.  If since 2000, real per capita GDP had grown at the average annual rate from 1960 to 1999, in 2022 it would be about $86,000 – that is a difference in output of nearly $22,000 per Ontarian.  It is not apparent that this stark difference has sunk in yet across political and policy circles in Ontario.  We have foregone a lot of output given our productivity decline and in the absence of a shift, that amount will only continue to grow.

 

 

Friday, 27 October 2023

Monster Mash or Cournot Nash?

 

Well, the season of Halloween is upon us and the music of the season is certainly something that we all have memories of over the years.  Of course, one of the most famous songs was Bobby “Boris” Pickett’s Monster Mash which was a smash hit in 1962.  This was his most famous song and later attempts to emulate its success were not as successful.  Nevertheless, it has inspired a host of replications and imitations ranging from this one on Sesame Street to this one or even this.   Well, I have been feeling particularly whimsical this week and in the spirit of the season, with a little help from my AI, I decided to see if I could adapt the lyrics to an economics theme - specifically a song about Cournot-Nash equilibrium.  After all, Monster Mash-Cournot Nash – they both have a certain lilt to them.  So, without further ado, take a look at the results.  Of course, please feel free to perform it, make a video and send it along!

 

In the land of game theory, where minds collide,
There was a concept, Cournot-Nash, they could not hide.
Firms strategized, each aiming to improve their gains,
Seeking equilibrium, where competition remains.

They did the Nash, they did the Cournot Nash,
The Cournot Nash, it was an equilibrium bash.
They did the Nash, it was a game theory smash,
The Cournot Nash, a most strategic clash.

Players in a market, with goods they'd supply,
In Cournot's world, they chose how much to magnify.
Each one anticipating, their rival's every move,
Balancing their choices, in a dance they would prove.

They did the Nash, they did the Cournot Nash,
The Cournot Nash, it was an equilibrium bash.
They did the Nash, it was a game theory smash,
The Cournot Nash, a most strategic clash.

Fierce competition, but still a sense of peace,
Cournot equilibrium, where conflicts find release.
Finding the optimal output, they would ascertain,
With profit maximization, the ultimate aim.

They did the Nash, they did the Cournot Nash,
The Cournot Nash, it was an equilibrium bash.
They did the Nash, it was a game theory smash,
The Cournot Nash, a most strategic clash.

So let's explore the strategies, in this grand parade,
Game theory teaches us, how choices are made.
In Cournot's footsteps, we can understand the game,
And dance to the beat of equilibrium's fame.

They did the Nash, they did the Cournot Nash,
The Cournot Nash, it was an equilibrium bash.
They did the Nash, it was a game theory smash,
The Cournot Nash, a most strategic clash.

 


 

Sunday, 22 October 2023

A New Research Project in the North and for the North

 

Northern Ontario has faced demographic and labour force challenges for several decades now.  Northern Ontario accounts for 90 percent of the province’s land mass but only about 6 percent of its population and though overall population appears to have stabilized since 2016, that share of population continues to decline as the rest of Ontario grows faster than its north.  To this long-term trend has been added the impacts of technological change and the digital economy as well as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.  As a result,given its aging population structure, issues of labour shortage have also come to mark the northern Ontario economy.

 

How to attract and retain labour in northern Ontario in both the short and long term is a pressing issue for the future growth and welfare of this diverse and sparsely populated region.  To date, much of the literature on labour force shortages and migration has been descriptive.  What factors are important in attracting and retaining population and labour forces in northern Ontario?  Given the presence of a substantial post-secondary education sector in the region, what factors and determinants are crucial in retaining skilled graduates for the labour force of the future.? To this effect, a pan-northern research team (of which I am pleased to be a member of) has begun a research project to address these questions and has obtained Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) grant funding to help obtain some answers.

 

The project is titled “Northern Ontario Labour Force Retention and Attraction in a Post-Pandemic, Digital Economy.”   This is a broad-based survey project building on a pilot study that investigated factors influencing  local graduate retention rates for Algoma University in Sault Ste. Marie. The pilot developed and tested a survey and then completed a review on labour retention policy in the region. This research project scales up the investigation of graduate retention and contributing factors to migration in Northern Ontario, and the retention rates of all the region’s post-secondary institutions to identify factors influencing the regional retention of graduates qualified to fill labour shortages. Of special interest are the region’s unique demographic patterns, push and pull factors, migration networks, labour attraction and retention policies, and leveraging graduates’ temporary work permits.  A combination of student and  graduate surveys, focus groups, and secondary data will be used to examine the significant factors of graduate retention and ultimately aims to develop recommendations for how the region can retain more of its existing skilled labour pool and attract more skilled migrants. The study will also investigate the effectiveness of the Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot (RNIP) program in graduate retention.

 

The research team is interdisciplinary and includes social and community development experts, Northern Ontario economists, and labour market experts. The university-based research team includes Dr. Nusrate Aziz (Algoma) as Principal Investigator, Zeel Patel (Algoma) as Senior Research Assistant, Dr. Sean Meades (Algoma), Dr. Sadequl Islam (Laurentian), Dr. Livio Di Matteo (Lakehead) and Dr. Natalya R. Brown (Nipissing).  To date the project has also hired two students (Alex and Kashfia) – one based at Laurentian University and the other based at Lakehead University - to assist with the conduct of surveys targeting students enrolled in 3rd, 4th, and 5th year (graduate) studies as well as focus groups involving university and college level staff and administrators involved in recruitment and retention initiatives.  The surveys have begun, and the subsequent pool of data will yield a rich source of socio-economic data on a demographic vital to the future prosperity of northern Ontario. If you are contacted by our team for input, we hope you will take the time to help us out. 

 


 

Saturday, 7 October 2023

The Recession That Was Not There

 

Yesterday upon the stair,

I saw a recession that was not there,

It was not there again today,

I wish, I wish, it would go away.

 

With apologies to William Hughes Mearns, Antigonish 1899.

 

 

The release of yesterday’s employment numbers by Statistics Canada once again threw a wrench into the ranks of those who have been predicting a recession by revealing a continued resilience to the Canadian economy’s job generation machine.  Total employment in September of 2023 was 20,270,000 – an increase of 0.3 percent over the previous month with 64,000 jobs created.  There were of course both gains and losses across regions and sectors with Quebec and British Columbia seeing the biggest employment increases while Alberta and New Brunswick saw declines. 

 

As well, there were increases in employment in education, transport and warehousing and declines – not surprisingly given the slowing housing market – in finance, insurance, and real estate.   Nationally, the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 5.5 percent.  When one adds to this the fact that the U.S. economy in September added over 300,000 jobs and their national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8 percent, one has to come to the conclusion that the North American economy is still quite robust despite the unprecedented surge in interest rates over the last year. 

 

Despite the ever present and mentioned spectre of recession with numerous forecasts and projections painting dire scenarios it remains that the recession is not here yet unless of course we are planning to redefine the context within what the definition of a recession is.  After all, the most recent GDP release also showed that as of July 2023, the economy was flat, neither up nor down. And one forecaster has said the economy will get “back on its feet” next year after a few negative quarters that will see the unemployment rate hit 5.9 percent followed by an easing of interest rates to the 3 percent range.    If a 5.9 percent unemployment rate is the worst this recession will bring, then one must wonder if a recession has simply become a psychological mindset perpetuated by endless speculation and anxiety of hard times to come. 

 

After all, as the accompanying figure shows, both interest rates and unemployment rates have been much higher during past recessions.  The 1981 and 1991 recessions both had much higher interest and accompanying unemployment rates than anything at present.  And notwithstanding the COVID spike in unemployment, unemployment rates have trended down since the 1990s and remain at close to historic lows bettered only by those of the mid 1960s. I suppose the only remaining case for a recession coming is that in both of those recessions, interest rates spiked and remained high for quite some time before unemployment finally surged.  Still, a forecast of 5.9 percent unemployment because of the current spike in interest rates does not seem like a recession at all when placed in historical context.

 


 

Still, the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision has been complicated by this much stronger economic performance and inflation still in the four percent range.  Moreover, with the sudden new instability in the Middle East, one can expect oil and gasoline prices to spike meaning inflation is unlikely to go down anytime soon.  Inflationary pressure is also being fueled by wage increases in the 5 percent range.  Indeed, Statistics Canada reported that incomes in general have been rising particularly in the bottom two income deciles as a result of wage gains for workers as well as increased benefits for retirees. 

 

Indeed, when one factors in all transfers to individuals including not only higher social security benefits and what is essentially a basic income for lower incomes with children via the Child Tax Benefit, it appears that disposable income in the bottom 20 percent has increased 20 percent. And, much of this goes to consumption spending as studies have suggested that lower income deciles have higher marginal propensities to consume and lower propensities to save.  Meanwhile, another Statistics Canada report suggests that the economy is doing better because of rising exports. Given the strength of the U.S. economy, that is not a surprise. Then there is the rising population and its associated demands on the economy.  Put it all together, and one cannot but help conclude that there is still a lot of inflationary stimuli being pumped into the economy.

 

Recession?  At present, the coming recession is a mere spectre, a mythical beast that is conjured up but is not there.