Thunder Bay's Exciting New Lottery

 

In its ongoing efforts to be innovative and trend setting, the City of Thunder Bay has inaugurated an exciting new lottery – Lotto Nightmare Pipe Dream.   The price of admission is simply being a property owner in the City of Thunder Bay and there is an annual top up fee known as a property tax.  To win?  You have to have a copper pipe leak either in your home plumbing or – if you are a really big winner – in the city water feed line to your property. The prize?  Well, the prizes range from 0$ - not winning - to up to minus $30,000 dollars or more depending on how big a winner you are.  The odds of claiming a prize are unknown but you can win from anywhere in the city though apparently the odds go up if you are lucky enough to live in the Northwood or Red River Wards.

 

Needless to say, the epidemic of leaky pipes in Thunder Bay in the wake of the introduction of sodium hydroxide to mitigate lead in the water has become the lottery from hell. Despite what might be considered to be the comforting biblical allusion of having a Mayor and 12 Councillors gathered in perpetual Monday evening supper time council meetings presiding over our welfare, they continue to remain silent on the issue with no prospect of the good news of salvation in sight.  Yet, based on the Facebook membership numbers in the Thunder Bay Leaky Pipe Club as well as numerous local media stories, nearly 1500 households have been affected.  The demonstration this week by affected residents is evidence of the growing problem.  And, the numbers will likely grow given that it is quite probable that all pipes in the city have probably had decades of life removed from them by the introduction of sodium hydroxide.  So, even homes in newer subdivisions can probably expect to see cases in years to come.

 

The Mayor and Council are refusing to make any public comment.  They are not even saying if they are studying the issue or collecting data or have hired a water/environmental consulting firm to advise them on the issue.  Simply saying absolutely nothing – which is what the Mayor did at his virtual town hall this week - because of potential legal issues is outrageous given that these are our elected representatives.  There needs to be accountability here – not just by the City of Thunder Bay- but also by the province which has mandated municipalities to take action on lead corrosion but oddly enough has not provided for a uniform approach to the problem.  However, the province  has been reported as stating other cities use sodium hydroxide with no pinhole leak issues suggesting they are washing their hands of the matter.  However, at least one of the cities mentioned by the province in the news report– Ottawa – does not seem to use sodium hydroxide but phosphates as its lead corrosion approach.

 

So, It turns out other cities have also had a lead problem – Toronto and Hamilton for example – but both dealt with it by introducing phosphates into the water supply.  In Toronto’s case phosphate was introduced in 2014 and was even endorsed by Toronto Public Health – to my knowledge there was no endorsement by public health officials in Thunder Bay for adding sodium hydroxide. If there was, I would like to see it.  Hamilton approved the use of orthophosphate in 2015.  Phospates apparently have a long history of use in the UK and along with Toronto and Hamilton, Sudbury and Winnipeg also use it also for lead corrosion control purposes. 

 

Where does this leave us?  In Thunder Bay, there are always more questions than answers and the silence of the mayor and council does not help us out at all. Why did Thunder Bay opt for sodium hydroxide rather than phosphates in treating its water for lead corrosion? Was it a cost issue – that is, we opted for a cheaper chemical?  Was it a water composition issue based on the chemical nature of our existing water supply given that it comes from Lake Superior that necessitated using sodium hydroxide rather than phosphates?  Is adding phosphate a solution to our water issues given that there is at least one example of a community in North America – Folsum, California of Folsum Prison Blues fame - adding it to their water to stop pinhole leaks. We need answers and sooner rather than later. Thunder Bay’s new lottery is not all it is cracked up to be.

 

 

Ranking Canada's COVID-19 Performance: It is Not as Pretty as We Like to Think

 

The IMF has released the October 2020 edition of its fiscal monitor and economic indicator numbers for world economies and its World Economic Outlook report titled “A Long and Difficult Ascent”  paints a pretty gruesome picture of the carnage wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic.  While the global economic growth outlook has improved somewhat from its June 2020 report, it is still projected at -4.4 percent and is surrounded by a fair amount of risk. 

 

However, in the end, performance is relative and what is more interesting is how different advanced economies are expected to fare in 2020.   Moreover, what is also of interest is their performance economically and fiscally relative to their pandemic performance – which certainly should be of interest to Canadians.   Polling results have often indicated that Canadians have largely approved of the way that their governments have responded to COVID-19 and an international ranking places Canada near the top of countries whose public thinks their country has handled COVID-19 well.  How justified is this perception by Canadians?

 

In understanding how well Canada has done dealing with COVID-19, one has to start with how Canada ranks in terms of the severity of the disease which in itself can indicate how good a job Canada has done in limiting its spread.  Figures 1 and 2 plot the ranked total number of COVID-19 cases per 1 million population and the deaths from COVID-19 per 1 million people as of October 17th (as taken from Worldometer) for 35 advanced economies as defined by the IMF.  Cases per 1 million ranged from highs of 32,914 and 25,083 for Israel and the United States to lows of 490 and 376 for Korea and New Zealand respectively.  COVID deaths per million people ranged from highs of 893 and 722 for Belgium and Spain (with the USA third at 675) to lows of 5 for both New Zealand and Singapore.  

 

 

 

 

 

Canada ranks 21^st in total cases per million – putting it in the bottom half of incidence severity – but 10^th highest in deaths per million population putting it in the top third.  So, while Canada was not hit as hard by infections compared to many countries, it was among those seeing higher death rates – largely because of its poor handling of the long-term care sector where over 80 percent of the deaths occurred.  While Canada is not the United States or Spain or Belgium in terms of the incidence and mortality of COVID-19, it is not Australia or New Zealand or Korea either. One might argue being an island helps but it did not help Cyprus or Malta that much.

 

How about the economic impact?  Figures 3 to 6 are based on the IMF October 2020 World Economic Outlook Report.  Figure 3 ranks the 35 advanced economies in terms of their projected 2020 real GDP growth rates and here Canada ranks 24 out of 35.  While everyone is going to see their economy shrink, some are going to be hit worse than others. Canada is basically at the top of the bottom third with an anticipated drop in real GDP for 2020 of -7.1 percent.  Overall, it is sandwiched between highs of -1.8 and -1.9 percent for Lithuania and Korea and lows of -10.6 and -12.8 for Italy and Spain. Figure 4 ranks these same countries according to their estimated 2020 unemployment rate and here Canada is an honorary Mediterranean country where at 9.7 percent it is coming 4^th out of 35 countries – behind Greece, Spain and Italy.  And if one looks at the percentage point increase compared to 2019, Canada’s is a 4 percent point increase.  Based on Figure 5, we are the second worse increase of the 35 advanced countries, behind the Americans who are expected to see a 5.2 percent point rise in their unemployment rate. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course, one might think that Canada’s somewhat mediocre performance relative to other advanced countries when it comes to the spread of COVID-19 and its mortality rate may simply be due to the fact that Canada has been a cheapskate in terms of its public spending compared to other countries.  And, by extension, perhaps our economic performance has been so much worse than other advanced economies because our federal and provincial governments have been captured by deficit scolds who have foisted restraint upon Canadians.  Well, put those notions to rest.  When the government deficit to GDP ratios for these advanced economies are ranked in Figure 6, it appears that Canada is finally number one in something – the size of its 2020 government deficit relative to GDP.  It is expected in 2020 to have the largest government deficit to GDP ratio of these 35 advanced economies registering at 19.7 percent. 

 

 

 

Once again, Canada has been spending a lot and seemingly getting relatively much less for its money.  True, we have not done as badly as some countries when it comes to the effects of COVID-19 on our population (unless you are a resident of a long-term care home) but our economy appears to have been fairly hard hit even with the many billions of support and assistance that have been funneled into it.  Why Canadians have to date been so charitable towards their federal and provincial governments when it comes to performance during the COVID-19 pandemic is a bit of a puzzle to me. Perhaps we just like to be nice.

In Thunder Bay, A Plague of Plumbing Problems is Not a Municipal Priority

 

It would appear that Thunder Bay City Council is still maintaining its cone of silence regarding the plague of plumbing problems that have afflicted numerous homeowners, not to mention businesses and other institutions in the city.  Residents are growing increasingly frustrated by the silence in light of evidence that hundreds if not thousands of households across the city have been hit by leaks in their indoor copper plumbing and in many cases leaks in their city connection line to the water main.  The expense for some homeowners is running in the tens of thousands of dollars including the hundreds of dollars in fees that the City is charging to shut off and turn back on water at the shutoff valves in order to effect repairs.

 

Thunder Bay has had a long history of water system and supply issues and this is the latest installment in what is going to be a very expensive saga.  Given that these issues have emerged in the wake of the addition of sodium hydroxide to the water supply to combat lead pipes affecting about 8,700 residents in older neighborhoods, the reluctance of the City to comment is understandable.  Correlation is not necessarily causation, but the timing of the leaks in the wake of the sodium hydroxide addition is more than suspicious. On the other hand, there needs to be some public effort made to deal with the problems and the business as usual approach of the City and the accompanying silence of the mayor and councillors is not what our government should be doing.  We do not elect our politicians to ignore us.

 

The Mayor and Council are our elected representatives and their silence in what are now twin pandemics – COVID and the plumbing plague – essentially is leaving many of us on our own to deal with these issues while they pursue business as usual.  Indeed, this week the Mayor apparently lobbied the provincial government on community needs that included: Bombardier, operating funding to offset 2021 COVID-19 costs and lost revenues, infrastructure funding, and funding for additional hires for long-term care and to cover increased costs associated with COVID-19.  Nowhere was there public acknowledgement during this “important opportunity to advocate for our community” of the woes of so many local homeowners and residents.  The public needs to know that their municipal government is looking out for them and it becomes apparent that they do not have our back – unless it is to use it to carry the load of increased taxes to fund their priorities.

 

It would help immensely to know if there is anything we can do as homeowners to preemptively deal with the leaky pipe problem.  Are some neighborhoods affected more than others?  Is it a function of the age of your homes?  What signs should we be on the lookout for to catch the problem early? Are houses near corners more susceptible as some observations suggest?  Is proximity to pumping stations a factor in terms of water pressure or the amount of sodium hydroxide that was released? Instead, we are left with cobbling together evidence from rumor and social media of which the most important contribution to date is a Facebook page under the title of the Thunder Bay Leaky Pipe Club that now has nearly 700 members.

 

In the absence of publicly available evidence from the City in terms of incidence and distribution, we are left to our own devices.  For example, based on the above Facebook Page discussions it would appear that the leaks are occurring all over the city, even in newer subdivisions such as Parkdale.  However, there are particular concentrations in Northwood, River Terrace/Fairbanks, John Street and Valleywood areas. Indeed, a drive down James Street in Northwood a few weeks ago suggested that there was either a lot of landscaping being done or there has been a veritable plague of leaky pipes.  In the River Terrace neighborhood off John Street – a subdivision of about 200 homes – based on the dug-up lawns and the neighborhood stories – there have been 40 homes affected. 

 

That is a 20 percent rate.  There are about 50,000 private households in Thunder Bay which suggests that this problem may eventually affect 10,000 property owners. True, extrapolating from one subdivision of 200 to the entire city is not good science but given the absence of any official information it is the only analysis we can do.  In the absence of numbers from the City as to how much of a problem this is, we are left to wonder who is going to be next and how much it is going to cost.  Not only are most of us working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic, but now we also have to worry that we will be flooded out and hit with a ten-thousand-dollar bill.  As if there were not enough mental health issues in Thunder Bay.

 

So, here it is.  In Thunder Bay right now, based on the homicide rate, you have about a 7 in 100,000 chance of being murdered – in percent terms that is just over one-half of one percent.  if you get COVID-19, you have about a 1 percent chance of dying from it given the numbers to date – 109 cases and 1 death.  However, if you own a home in Thunder Bay, you have a 20 percent change of leaky pipes occurring and a plumbing bill that can range anywhere from a few hundred to many thousands of dollars.  Why is this not a priority?  How the Mayor and Council can still look at themselves in the mirror in the morning is beyond me. 

 

 

The Empire Ascends: Pax Canadensis and the Threat to China

 

The public pronouncements of Chinese diplomats on Canada-China relations have become quite interesting of late.  In marking the 50^th anniversary of the establishment of formal relations between China and Canada (which incidentally was instrumental in getting China recognized by other countries and ultimately helped get China where it is today) Canada’s Prime Minister Trudeau remarked on the current strains on relations between the two countries – namely the Meng Wanzhou and Kovrig/Spavor affairs.  

 

This came on the heels of Bob Rae’s remarks at the United Nations in response to China’s claims that Canada was “bullying” Beijing by refusing to release Meng Wanzhou. Rae’s response was not the usual polite and timid mutterings of diplomatic nothings that the Chinese government has come to expect from Canada and its politicians and diplomats.  Rae essentially said: “When you say that a country of 35 million people that we are somehow bullying a nation of over one billion, one of the great superpowers of the world and they have chosen to treat these two Canadian citizens in this way, this is something that we shall never forget.”

 

Well, good for Bob Rae.  Since the Meng Wanzhou affair began, China’s ambassadors in Ottawa have used ominous threatening language and the Chinese government has used trade as a punishment by reducing its canola imports and halting pork and beef imports for a while.  However, apparently, we are the bullying nation.  One wonders what the point of such language is on the part of China’s government representatives in Ottawa and New York?  Is it an attempt at mockery or humour?  Does President Xi Xiping really believe that Canada is bullying China?

 

Or is there something more here?  I recall an old  story my father used to tell me about a man who went to his doctor because he had a phobia about chickens.  The man believed the chicken might eat him.  The doctor explained the absurdity of this in calm measured terms and convinced the man that he was indeed not a mere grain of corn that the chicken might eat but many times larger and indeed a threat to the chicken.  The man appeared to accept this, calmed down and prepared to leave but as he was leaving turned and said: “I am still worried. You are right, I am many times larger and not a grain of corn, but does the chicken know this?”

 

China’s behaviour on the world stage seems driven by extreme insecurity.  While it is now the second largest economy in the world and has become a major world player, it still smarts from past injustices and when backed against a wall reverts to old diplomatic language and behaviour.  It still sees itself as a developing economy with a past marked by western colonialism despite the progress it has made and does not understand why it is not always getting its way.  Canada not doing exactly what it says is somehow being seen as a loss of face and not a problem to be solved given Canada’s position between China and the United States.  That is the most charitable explanation of its behaviour. 

 

Aside from the uncharitable explanation that China really is a mean self-centered bully is the off the wall possibility that the Chinese government truly believes it is in a parallel universe where Canada is a huge imperial power.   Canada has foisted a Pax Canadensis on the world backed by the force of its arms.  In this mirror universe straight out of a Star Trek episode, the evil Canadian empire that arose on the ashes of the British and American regimes now encircles the globe with colonial possessions right up against China’s borders and is trying to keep China from asserting its rightful place in the world.  Its flag of crossed swords is the ultimate symbol of bullying diplomacy and its arrival on your shores heralds the onslaught of red coated Mounties directing your traffic and polite bilingual bureaucrats overseeing the construction of hockey arenas and Tim Horton’s franchises. A Pax Canadensis indeed.  The world should be so blessed.

 

Whether China is psychologically insecure or simply misguided does not matter.  Neither bode well for a peaceful and stable world future.

 

 

Homicides in Hamilton: Is Hamilton Becoming the Next Thunder Bay?

 

There have been a number of high-profile homicides in Hamilton and surrounding parts over the last few months with an estimated 12 homicides to date in Hamilton alone.  With nearly three months to go, 2020 is shaping up to see Hamilton’s largest homicide total since 2013 when there 15 homicides.  This inevitably sparks comparisons to other urban centres and Thunder Bay inevitably comes to mind because of its recent issues with homicides, but also because in many respects, the two communities share similarities.

 

Hamilton and Thunder Bay are both “lakeheads” with Hamilton at the head of Lake Ontario while Thunder Bay is at the head of navigation on Lake Superior.  They both have histories as gritty industrial towns, saw the shedding of middle-class industrial jobs and several decades of economic hardship, and have social and poverty issues with segments of their populations.  Both have had issues with inequality, racism, and the lack of housing for marginalized and homeless people.

 

However, there are also major differences.  Hamilton is a larger urban centre clocking in at over 500,000 people whereas Thunder Bay hovers at about 120,000.  Hamilton’s population has been growing over the last two decades while Thunder Bay’s has not. Hamilton’s economy has also been undergoing a substantial period of economic rejuvenation that has been creating jobs and investment.  Building permits have been up three years in a row and Amazon recently announced a new distribution centre on the Mountain creating 1500 new jobs.  Hamilton’s downtown is booming with construction projects.

 

Prior to the pandemic, the Conference Board for 2020 projected strength in non‐residential construction, in professional services, and in the finance, insurance, and real estate industry and expected real GDP growth of 1.7 per cent in Hamilton in 2020. The projection for Thunder Bay by comparison was for growth by 0.7 per cent in 2020, with only modest growth in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

 

But coming back to the main event, is Hamilton going to supplant Thunder Bay as the murder capital of Canada? Figure 1 plots the total annual number of homicides in Hamilton and Thunder Bay over the period 1981 to 2020 as obtained from Statistics Canada (1981 to 2018) and from media reports to date for 2019 and 2020.  Being a much larger city in terms of population, Hamilton can be expected to have more homicides, but the gap has narrowed over time.  In 2012 and 2014, Thunder Bay actually managed more homicides than Hamilton.  Moreover, when a linear trend is fitted to the data, Hamilton has shown a distinct downward trend over time while Thunder Bay has shown the opposite.

 

 

 

The difference in the scale of the problems facing the two cities is even more apparent when homicides per 100,000 of population are examined in Figure 2.  From 1981 to about 2007, the two cities track each other with a downward trend though Thunder Bay often exceeds Hamilton once homicides are adjusted for population size.  However, there is a strong divergence after 2007 with Thunder Bay’s homicide rate soaring while Hamilton’s essentially flatten out based on the trend line (which is a polynomial fit this time to take into account the U-shaped nature of Thunder Bay’s data). Indeed, the estimated homicide rates for 2020 to date per 100,000 population are 2.1 for Hamilton and 6.8 for Thunder Bay.   

 

 

 

It would appear that Hamilton is nowhere near wresting away Thunder Bay’s crown as the murder capital of Thunder Bay this year. Of course, one wonders if policing resource difference is factor, but that will be another post. Stay tuned and stay safe.