NORTHERN ECONOMIST 2.0

Thursday, 9 November 2017

Thunder Bay Construction Intentions Drop, Sudbury Up

Statistics Canada's latest building permit numbers show an increase nationally in September with a monthly increase of 3.8 percent. Yearly (September 2016 to September 2017), the total value of permits in Canada was up 12.43 percent. As noted by Statistics Canada: "Canadian municipalities issued $7.9 billion worth of building permits in September, up 3.8% from the previous month. A 1.7% decrease in the residential sector was more than offset by a 13.9% increase in the non-residential sector. A high-value institutional building permit issued in Alberta was behind much of the increase." Ontario posted a decrease mainly due to lower construction intentions for apartments which probably does not bode well for the future of renters in the province.

With respect to the specifics across cities, the accompanying figure presents the percent change from September 2016 to September 2017 ranked from highest to lowest for Canadian CMAs. For all CMAs, the increase was 14.5 percent. At the top we have Halifax, St. John's and Brantford at 196.9, 154.5 and 145.2 percent growth respectively. At the bottom - well, Thunder Bay is last at -62.9 percent, just behind Hamilton at -43.7 percent and Kingston at -40 percent. Sudbury actually manages to shine at an increase of 123.3 percent - just behind Brantford putting it in fourth place. Of the 14 CMAs showing a decrease, seven were in Ontario - including Toronto which saw a year over year decrease of 13 percent.

Friday, 3 November 2017

Left Behind

The good news continues for the Canadian economy as the latest job numbers from Statistics Canada show a net increase in employment of 35,000 jobs in October. Indeed, one has to wonder why the Bank of Canada does not go out and raise interest rates a bit more given that should the economy slowdown it would give them some scope to lower rates to counteract the slowdown. At the moment we have large deficits at the federal level and low interest rates - really, how much more direct stimulus does the Canadian economy need at this point? What do we do if the economy goes into recession?

For Ontario, however, the picture is more mixed as employment there was virtually unchanged. Indeed, over half of the net employment growth in Canada came from Quebec and most of the remainder from Alberta. Ontario’s employment story got another interesting assessment from a Fraser Institute Report showing that almost all the recent employment growth in Ontario has been concentrated in the Toronto and Ottawa areas. Many of the CMAs outside of these two regions experienced employment declines. The figure below taken from the Fraser Institute report shows that quite a few Ontario CMAs - including all of those from northern Ontario saw employment drops.

Needless to say, when it comes to employment Ontario very much seems to have become a two-track economy with the North, East and Southwest portions of the economy not doing as well as the Toronto-Ottawa core. A notable exception is Windsor which has managed to create employment since 2008 despite the manufacturing downturn. Some of the cities that have been doing well - Guelph, Oshawa and Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge are all part of that area within direct and short range of the GTA.

Yet, the October numbers suggest Ontario as a whole has slowed down in terms of job creation even in the Toronto-Ottawa core. This does not bode well for the effects of the minimum wage increase coming in January. If an employment slump continues, it also introduces a new dynamic into the provincial election coming in June. If the feeling of being left behind gains momentum even in previously economically buoyant areas such as the GTA then the prospects for political change will rise.

Tuesday, 24 October 2017

Economic News Around the North, October 24th Edition

It is quite the blustery day here in Thunder Bay today so what better way to hunker down and enjoy the day than taking a look at the major economic news items over the last little while.

Ontario's GDP boosted billions per year by Lakehead University Thunder Bay, Orillia campuses. CBC Thunder Bay, October 24th, 2017.

Well, it turns out that according to a study authored by faculty at Lakehead's business school that Lakehead University's economic impact on Ontario is 1.4 billion dollars. To my way of thinking, the faculty are the core of the university - indeed all the expenditures a university makes are to allow faculty to generate research, teaching outcomes and human capital value added for graduates so given that there are about 300 full-time faculty at Lakehead, I would estimate my personal economic impact on Ontario's economy at 4.7 million dollars (1.4 billion dollars divided by 300). Based on my current salary, I am obviously grossly undervalued. That is a pretty good return to any investment. Come to think of it, hiring more full time university faculty is obviously a cheap and effective way to boost Ontario GDP. Let the hiring boom begin.

Business ties with India explored. Chronicle Journal, October 24, 2017.

Well, a few weeks ago it was a delegation from China. This week a delegation from India is passing through Thunder Bay. Given the precarious state of our NAFTA negotiations, I would imagine it is a good idea to try and build as many ties as possible with the Asia Pacific region.

Northern business owners in 'defensive mode' about proposed tax changes. CBC Sudbury, October 24th, 2017.

This is the northern Ontario take on the tax changes being shepherded by Bill Morneau. However, as we know there are going to be revisions. Moreover, there may be other goodies coming down the pipeline in the wake of today's fiscal and economic update in Ottawa.

And in other Sudbury economic and business news....

2 former chairs quit Sudbury Chamber of Commerce over casino, arena position. CBC Sudbury, October 19th, 2017.

No comment there. Sounds like a pretty strong difference of opinions.

While Thunder Bay is focusing on India and China for its economic enhancement efforts, it would appear that Timmins Economic Development Corporation has targeted Bolivia.

Exchange will see Bolivian delegates visit Timmins. TimminsPress.com. October 4th, 2017.

If you are interested in the Elliot Lake model of economic development, there is this...

Sault's becoming a popular retirement destination, credit analyst says. SOOTODAY.com, October 6th, 2017.

On the other hand, what if Amazon builds its new headquarters in the Sault? The Sault is sending in a proposal. Check here. Quite frankly, I have not come across other northern Ontario cities doing the same.

As well, there is television production activity underway in the Sault.

Producer returns with big projects for Northern Ontario. SaultOnline. October 15th, 2017.

And all the way in North Bay, there is this item referring to a recent Fraser Institute Report by Ross McKitrick and Elmira Aliakbari:

Ontario's green energy policies killed jobs.Nugget.ca, October 19th, 2017.

Even North Bay is apparently getting into the film business...

Film industry applauds local cinematography program. BAYTODAY.com, October 14th,017.

Have a great week!

Wednesday, 18 October 2017

Will It Be a Wynne Win Situation in June?

The consensus seems to be that Ontario’s current Liberal government and Premier Kathleen Wynne are headed for defeat come the June 2018 election. Recent polls have seen the government trailing third behind the Conservatives and the New Democrats. An IPSOs poll in mid-September also suggested that most Ontario voters –- 76 percent -- want a change in government.

Two cabinet ministers (Treasury Board President Liz Sandals and Deputy Premier Deb Matthews) recently announced that they will not be seeking re-election which some may interpret as a signal that there is not a lot of confidence in the government’s future past June. This is on top of Economic Development Minister Brad Duguid who announced last month he won’t run for re-election and Environment Minister Glen Murray in the summer.

As well, the Premier’s personal approval rating is low. There is the baggage of nearly 15 years of Liberal government rule including the demise of the manufacturing sector, high electricity prices, the high debt and deficit, and the gas plants scandal to which can be added the current trial underway in Sudbury. And the electricity sector seems to be a problem that never seems to diminish in scope given the recent Auditor General’s report that the Wynne government’s plan to reduce electricity prices will eventually be higher cost in the long run.

Yet, one should not count Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals out yet. Recent polls have suggested there has been a bit of a rebound in Liberal support with a September 30^th Forum poll suggesting the Liberals and PCs are tied for support in the vote rich Toronto area. Given the recent rebound in Ontario’s economy, the electorate may be less keen to turf the governing party in favor of gambling the PCs might do a better job with the economy. As well, there have been a range of initiatives –the minimum wage hike, changes to real estate rules, the basic income pilot that are likely to sway NDP supporters. And most Ontarians will not understand that a lower electricity bill today will eventually mean much higher bills tomorrow under the current Liberal plan. As for the departing cabinet ministers, another interpretation is that after 15 years one can expect to see the departure of veterans and renewal of candidates.

It all comes down to the campaign. The Liberals in Canada, whether at the provincial level or the federal level tend to campaign from the left and then govern from the right. They are usually quite successful in running campaigns with policies that take enough votes from the NDP to gain office. They are somewhat less successful in governing like PCs when it comes to economic matters given that seems to be a congenital Liberal predisposition to grand social, economic and industrial interventionist strategies. However, demonstrating this to the public requires a strong, inspiring and methodical policy campaign by the PCs and to date PC leader Patrick Brown despite any lead in the polls has yet to capture the imagination of Ontario voters.

In the end, one can imagine that Liberal support bottomed early enough this summer to allow the Liberals to position themselves as “the underdog” and come back from behind. Indeed, one wonders if this was not the strategy all along to allow the opposition parties to capture the lead in the polls and peak early. Of course, such a strategy can still backfire despite the recent policy stage being set by the Liberals if events deal them economic or political shocks. And there is always the strong possibility that the opposition leaders might finally get their act together and campaign more effectively.

It is going to be an entertaining next few months in the lead up to the election.

Sunday, 8 October 2017

Porter Airlines Says it's Sorry But Is it Enough?

Well, we had quite the flight delay with Porter Airlines yesterday. Our flight to Billy Bishop from Thunder Bay was supposed to depart at 11:10 am and when all was said and done it did not leave until nearly 6:00 pm meaning that from start to finish our trip to Hamilton in the end took twelve hours. We have traveled to Europe in less. Indeed, you can drive to Hamilton from Thunder Bay in about 14 hours straight if you put your mind to it. Still, compared to others on the packed flight with small children or who were traveling on tighter schedules to attend weddings or were unable to go back to their house and spend some time for the extended wait – we were fortunate. And Porter has demonstrated its concern and sympathy and very quickly emailed us with a 100-dollar voucher each (it came in at 4:52am this morning) to be used on future bookings with Porter. Based on the length of the delay and the amount of the compensation, it seems that Porter already complies with the new proposed Ontario minimum wage at least when it comes to the value of passenger time.

In the end the delay was for a “mechanical issue” and as one of the flight attendants who took the elevator with us at the end of the flight remarked it is better to be safe than sorry. I agree. Still, this is not the first mechanical delay with Porter on a flight to or from Thunder Bay that I or other members of my family have encountered. Indeed, over the last year there have now been about four such issues involving us with the most recent delay the longest. In each case, the weather was excellent and the plane on the tarmac and then suddenly…the dreaded delay due to a mechanical issue. However, if you are in Thunder Bay it is even more ominous because Porter Airlines must fly in the mechanic from Toronto on its next available flight.

Why Porter airlines and the other two airlines in Thunder Bay (Air Canada and Westjet) who also fly nothing but Q400s there could not get together to chip in and maintain one mechanic on a standby contract to service their planes is beyond me. Perhaps the recent announcement from Porter that they are making Thunder Bay a crew base will also mean they are going to keep a mechanic and parts on hand. I hope that is the case because I like flying Porter and the convenient access to downtown Toronto.

At the same time, I think Porter has had an awful lot of “mechanical issues” and having so many really is ultimately their fault. I think they have an aging stock of aircraft given that the planned beefing up with the C-Series fell through and they now need to renew their aircraft stock in a very competitive airline world. It's tough I know. Still, here is the thing. You can’t keep telling people they have a delay due to mechanical issues. It has happened often enough to me and my family now that inevitably I am starting to wonder if an airline with so many mechanical issues is the one I should keep selecting for my travel. I am already booked on a few more flights with Porter for the next couple of months but after that maybe I should shop around more. After all, better to be safe than sorry.