NORTHERN ECONOMIST 2.0

Thursday, 15 June 2017

Thunder Bay Taxis Stories: The High Cost of Cabs

Well, trying to take a taxi in Thunder Bay can be a bit of a challenge. Several winters ago, a couple of hours before our flight out we called for a cab and it just did not seem to be arriving. In the end, we had to drive and park our own vehicle at the airport which had not been our original intention. When we discussed the matter with the company, they mentioned it was mid-afternoon and a lot of their cabs were on “school runs” so it would be best to call the night before to book a cab to ensure a ride. It turns out a lot of the business for cab companies in Thunder Bay is from the broader public sector – schools, social agencies etc…which limits their incentive to provide more and more immediate availability for private sector clients.

Economic News Around the North: June 9th Edition

Here are the stories over the last little while that I feel are of economic importance to northern Ontario. Summer is on the way and there is a definite slowdown in defining economic news as everyone starts heading out to camp for the summer. Tourism is going to be a sector of continuing importance to northern Ontario and camp development should be part of tourism development and infrastructure. Making more camp/cottage lots available for development would certainly be one way of adding to tourism in northern Ontario.

Here is another piece of tourism infrastructure along the north shore of Lake Superior.

Lake Superior Water Trail connects explorers to northern Ontario. CBC News. Sudbury, June 9, 2017.

Of course, tourism development does not always have positive benefits for everyone as this historical example of northern Ontario tourism exploitation illustrates.

Speaking of infrastructure, there is a glitch in the US Soo locks rebuild. See here.

It was mining day in Thunder Bay recently and there was another mining show in Timmins. These events are good showcases for the sector. The Timmins mining exposition was a 3 day event with 400 exhibitors.

Mining Day in Thunder Bay. Northern Ontario Business. June 1, 2017.

Miners, investors flock to The Big Show. Northern Ontario Business, June 7, 2017.

In terms of developing the northern Ontario economy, another call for some type of tax incentive program from City Council in Sault Ste. Marie. There was also a harkening back to the Peterson government of the late 1980s with a call more more government office relocation. I suppose it would not be too tongue-in-cheek to suggest that the Ontario government simply sell all of its land in Toronto - at current sky high prices - use the proceeds to pay off its debt and then relocate the entire Ontario legislature and civil service somewhere in northern Ontario. Of course the competition among the big 5 northern Ontario cities would be cutthroat so Wawa might have to be the compromise location. Perhaps they could make the decision as part of a lottery or gaming experience run by OLG.

Of course, if all else fails there is the inevitable fallback to better marketing. North Bay seems to be going in this direction with its municipal government handing a million dollars to its arms-length municipal economic development agency.

In northern Ontario institutional news, there is a commission studying provincial ridings and representation in the far part of northern Ontario. Some think the commission is thinking of splitting the Timmins-James Bay riding in two to provide better representation to indigenous communities. Will be interesting to see what the commission reports back.

Well, that is it for now. Have a great weekend.

Tuesday, 6 June 2017

Thunder Bay Community Foundation Awards Night 2017

The Thunder Bay Community Foundation held its 2017 Scholarship and Bursary Reception at the Thunder Bay Art Gallery this evening and it was an exciting and very well attended event.

I served on the Foundation Board from 2007 to 2010 and this evening was an opportunity to reconnect with the Foundation and its activities. The Foundation was established in 1971 with a gift from Prue Morton and has gone on to build a substantial endowment that funds a program of community grants including a set of scholarship and bursaries to students from Thunder Bay and tnorthwestern Ontario. This year, thanks to the generosity of many donors over the years, the Foundation was able to present $66,900 in scholarships and bursaries to students in Thunder Bay and the District of Thunder Bay.

Congratulations to all of this year's recipients and best wishes for an exciting future!

Sunday, 4 June 2017

Comparing Homicide Rates: Why Thunder Bay Has a Problem

From a peak reached in the early 1990s, police reported crimes rates in Canada have been on a downward trend. This is also the case for homicide rates, which have been on a downward trend nationally since the early 1980s. There is of course variation from year to year in homicide rates so some type of regression smoothing procedure is helpful in establishing what the longer-term trends over time are. What quickly emerges from an examination of long-term trends is that Thunder Bay followed national trends in homicide rates until the early 21^st century but that since then there has been a substantial divergence. It is not a “northern Ontario” thing because the Greater Sudbury CMA tracks provincial and national homicide rates quite closely.

Figure 1 presents LOWESS Smoothed homicide rates for Canada and major regions from 1981 to 2015. LOWESS is a particularly useful smoothing tool because it helps deal with “outliers” – that is extreme observations that can often distort averages taken over time. The data source is from Statistics Canada (Table 2530004 - Homicide survey, number and rates (per 100,000 population) of homicide victims, by census metropolitan area (CMA), annually). Canada as a whole has seen a steady decline in homicide rates going from smoothed values of 2.74 per 100,000 in 1981 to 1.51 by 2015 – a drop of 45 percent. This decline is a feature of the West, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada though Atlantic Canada sees a sight upturn after 2006. In terms of regional rankings, homicide rates are now the highest in the West, followed by Atlantic Canada, then Ontario and finally Quebec.

Economic News Around the North: May 26th Edition

It has been a slow start to spring across northern Ontario but temperatures are finally starting to warm up. Environment Canada says warmer weather is on its way. Here are a few of the stories of economic significance for northern Ontario that caught my attention over the last week or so.

Regarding the Ring of Fire, here is an op-ed by Heather Hall and Ken Coates that essentially makes the point that ultimately, the Ring of Fire will not proceed "without substantial, clear and significant indigenous engagement." In the end as any good economic historian knows, institutional arrangements are important.

How to finally ignite Ontario's Ring of Fire. Chronicle-Journal, May 23rd, 2017.

Given this op-ed, selling yourself as a Ring of fire smelter location may be premature. I am also surprised that in this age of heightened sensibilities and sensitivities one is actually using the term 'smelter' and not something like "Value Added Mineral Processing and Community Economic Enhancement Facility".

Northern Ontario cities try to 'sell' themselves as best place to put Ring of Fire smelter. CBC News Sudbury. May 15th, 2017.

Nevertheless, there is no stopping the sense of optimism when it comes to the Ring of Fire especially in the run up to a provincial election.

Premier repeats Ring of Fire Optimism in Timmins. Sudbury Star, May 26th, 2017.

Sadly, given the presence of the Premier in northern Ontario, there was no reaction in northern Ontario to this item (by yours truly) which Dominic Giroux on Twitter noted as a "blunt assessment". I think this provides support for a case for a government program to provide northern Ontario media organizations with research support as they are probably stretched for resources in pursuing stories. This is not that far-fetched given the unfortunate downsizing that has occurred over the years in local media that I am aware of.

When it comes to economic development, human capital is also important and of course education is a key component of any human capital strategy. Providing government services in northern Ontario is already a challenge given the low population density and geographic dispersion. Doing so in rural northern Ontario even more so.

'Very frustrating, kind of heartbreaking': Seeking support for northern Ontario rural school,"CBC News, Sudbury, May 25th, 2017.

In terms of regional/local infrastructure, this item was of interest.

"North Shore gas project still in the works," Northern Ontario Business, May 19th, 2017.

And of course, there are under the surface the constant rumblings of the Northern Ontario Party...that are probably destined to remain rumblings.

Northern Ontario Party calls for separation. May 12th, 2017.

Related to the motif of northern resentment and unhappiness, there was this interesting segment on TVO's agenda hosted by Steve Paikin. In the interview with former Ontario cabinet minister David Orazietti, the interesting point was made that despite the constant claims of alienation and under representation of northern Ontario interests at Queen's Park, on a per capita basis the north has more provincial cabinet ministers than Toronto. Of course, the related news item is the by-election in the Sault for David Orazietti's vacated seat.

And there is one final item and this again related to institutions and what can often be their indirect impact on business and the economy. In Thunder Bay we have the situation where the police chief has been placed on administrative suspension as a result of being charged with breach of trust and obstructing justice "stemming from allegations that he disclosed confidential information concerning Thunder Bay mayor Keith Hobbs." I must admit this one is quite puzzling to me and comes on the heels of other rather odd stories involving the Mayor. Without really knowing what is going on here, one must nevertheless express disappointment at a situation involving relationships between the senior figures of Thunder Bay's municipal government that does not reflect very well in the national media on a community constantly trying to sell itself as a good place to do business. Coming at a time when Thunder Bay is also under scrutiny for its relations with indigenous people, one hopes that this matter is speedily resolved and Thunder Bay's leadership quickly moves on to dealing with better things.

Everyone, please try to have a nice weekend.

NORTHERN ECONOMIST 2.0