NORTHERN ECONOMIST 2.0

Tuesday, 11 April 2017

How Many Jobs Have Been Created in Thunder Bay?

One of Thunder Bay's Members of Parliament and currently Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Labour - Patty Hajdu - asserted in a letter to the Chronicle-Journal this morning that "In the last eight months alone, the Canadian economy has created more than a quarter-million full-time jobs. In fact, 1,600 jobs new jobs have been created here in Thunder Bay since we were elected." Needless to say, this piqued my curiosity and so I went off to Statistics Canada to see what Thunder Bay's total employment numbers have looked like since October of 2015 - the year the Trudeau Liberals took office.

The results are provided in Figure 1, and are monthly seasonally un-adjusted total employment (three month moving average) for the Thunder Bay CMA. The numbers show rising monthly employment from October 2015 to August 2016 and a decline since. In October of 2015, total employment in Thunder Bay was 59,100 jobs and the total employed reached a peak of 61,300 by August of 2016. This represents an increase of 2,200 jobs. However, between August of 2016 and March of 2017, employment then declines from 61,300 to 59,300 - a drop of 2,000 jobs. So, based on these numbers, from October of 2015 to March of 2017 Thunder Bay goes from 59,100 to 59,300 jobs for an increase of 200 jobs.

Of course, while these numbers are three month moving averages, they are not adjusted for seasonality. If we go from October 2015 to October 2016, employment grows from 59,100 to 60,800 for an increase of 1,700 jobs. If we go from March 2016 to March 2017, we see total employment grow from 59,500 to 59,300 jobs - a decline of 200 jobs. Based on Figure 1, Thunder Bay may have indeed seen the creation of 1,600 new jobs since the election of the Trudeau Liberal government but it also appears to have lost nearly as many jobs making for little in the addition of net new employment.

Saturday, 8 April 2017

Evaluating Northern Ontario's Growth Plan-Part III: Investment Spending

This is the third in a series of posts in which I am presenting evidence evaluating the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario, which was released on March 4, 2011. The 25-year plan was to guide provincial decision-making and investment in northern Ontario with the aim of strengthening the regional economy. The goal was strengthening the economy of the North by:

Diversifying the region's traditional resource-based industries
Stimulating new investment and entrepreneurship
Nurturing new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.

While the provincial government did commit itself to the development of performance measures for ministry specific initiatives that supported the implementation of the plan, I will be using a broader set of indicators of overall economic performance that are supported by the availability of readily accessible public data. My first post was an overview of the series while my second post looked at employment. In this third post, I will be looking at new investment spending as measured by building permits.

Evaluating Northern Ontario's Growth Plan-Part II: Employment Generation

This is the second in a series of posts in which I will present evidence in an attempt to evaluate the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario, which was released on March 4, 2011. The 25-year plan was to guide provincial decision-making and investment in northern Ontario with the aim of strengthening the regional economy and its ultimate goal was to strengthen the economy of the North by:

Diversifying the region's traditional resource-based industries
Stimulating new investment and entrepreneurship
Nurturing new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.

While the provincial government did commit itself to the development of performance measures for ministry specific initiatives that supported the implementation of the plan, I will be using a broader set of indicators of overall economic performance that are supported by the availability of readily accessible public data. In this first post, I will be looking at employment.

Economic News Around Northern Ontario: April 2nd Edition

Well it has been a busy end of term not just on campus but across northern Ontario. Here are the items that caught my interest over this last week in terms of general economic significance for the region. The first two stories deal with the MPAC assessments this week.

Commercial, industrial property reassessments 'absolutely devastating' says Thunder Bay council, CBC.ca. March 29^th, 2017.

Economists weigh in on municipalities' spat over property reassessments, CBC.ca. March 30^th, 2017.

This is a municipal public finance story that has been many years in the making. Essentially, as a result of appeals and a ruling by MPAC, the City of Thunder Bay will have to refund $2 million to several retailers and grain elevator companies. While this refund has been planned for, it does mean a reduction in revenues from these properties in the future. This is part of a long-term trend away from business/industrial properties towards residential ratepayers and over the course of 25 years in Ontario has meant a shift in the share of property taxes away from the business/industrial sector and onto residential ratepayers. While one might argue that in the past, the business/industrial sector was bearing too large a share, the situation has certainly gone the other way. Of course, the real question is what should the optimal division be between the share of property taxes paid by residential ratepayers and business/industrial one. In Thunder Bay, the situation has been aggravated by the industrial decline of the last 25 years which has seen several pulp and sawmills as well as grain elevators shut down, For my take on property taxation in Thunder Bay, see my January 24th 2017 post. While there is certainly an economic case to be made about the division between residential and business property taxation, in the end the balance will be a political decision.

In other news:

Sudbury loses in 3rd bid for Canada Summer Games, CBC.ca. March 30^th, 2017.

The Niagara Region will be hosting the 2021 games beating out bids from Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa and Sudbury. The Games are an opportunity to showcase your community and acquire some new infrastructure but at the same time they do come with some expenses. Getting them can be a mixed blessing but they are fun. I remember participating in the opening ceremonies of the 1981 games that were held in Thunder Bay. I was much more agile as a dancer then.

Budget could transform FedNor: MP, Chronicle Journal, March 31^st, 2017.

A lot is being made about the $25 million boost to FedNor as some type of trans-formative change to the agency. A similar spin in a story in North Bay.

Feds ‘rebuilding’ FedNor, nugget.ca. March 26^th, 2017.

The fact remains that FedNor's budget a decade ago was $76 million and last year it was $31 million and the $25 million is being spread out over 5 years. I guess I really would need to be sold on what FedNor actually is other than a fund to sprinkle some politically motivated funding on assorted projects to give some semblance to the idea that the federal government cares about northern Ontario's economic development. The minor increase in funding without some kind of vision of what FedNor is transforming to suggests treading water in a palliative care setting rather than trans-formative change.

In other news of concern to long-term regional infrastructure and the north's transportation role:

Soo Locks economic necessity; future worries USACE, Saultthisweek.com. March 28^th, 2017.

The Chamber of Commerce did a big presentation in Timmins last week (They are coming to Thunder Bay April 21st).

Report cites challenges for Northern economy, TimminsPress.com. March 29^th, 2017.

Other items:

North Bay commercial real estate: Leasing and sales to level off in 2017, North Bay Business Journal. March 21, 2017.

Facts ‘n’ Figures: Canadian mining by the numbers, The Northern Miner. March 28^th, 2017.

This last item presents some numbers for the provinces but since all of the mining in Ontario is a northern Ontario economic activity, it provides an interesting snapshot. Have a great week!

Sunday, 26 March 2017

Economic News Around Northern Ontario: March 26th Edition

Here are some of the recent items I found to be of economic significance to northern Ontario. If you are interested in the regional impact of the Federal budget this week from my perspective, see my previous post. There was also this somewhat more upbeat story on CBC:

First nations, northern infrastructure to benefit from federal budget. CBC News Sudbury. March 23rd, 2017.

As well, the 25 million dollar boost to Fednor seems to have gotten some attention. I guess in northern Ontario, 25 million dollars is considered alot of money and the source of much optimism.

FedNor gets $25-million funding boost. Sudburystar.com. March 24th, 2017.

In other upbeat news....

First ship of season arrives in Thunder Bay. Tbnewswatch. March 24th, 2017.

The arrival of the M.V. Manitoulin was a record breaking early arrival for the first ship and leads to the hope this is the start of another great shipping season for the Port of Thunder Bay. The Port of Thunder Bay has been on an upward trend the last few years.

As well, it turns out Sunrise Records will be adding to Thunder Bay retail filling the hole left by the closure of HMV. See:

Thunder Bay indie store welcomes Sunrise. CBC Thunder Bay. March 24th, 2017.

And the upbeat news continues all over the north. In the Sault, despite concerns raised by the local Chamber of commerce at a public forum, the city's Mayor has assured everyone that municipal costs are under control.

City is controlling costs: mayor. Saultstar.com. March 24th, 2017.

After all, the city council in the Sault has shrunk from 12 to 10 saving $60,000 annually! However, to put $60,000 in perspective, keep in mind the total municipal levy for 2017 in the Sault is projected at 108.9 million dollars.

In terms of infrastructure, Timmins is opening a new hospice center and the optimism was contagious also spilling over to a generally positive view of certain elements of the federal budget by the Timmins Chamber of Commerce. Perhaps some of that new Fednor funding is headed towards highway construction in the Timmins area. See:

Timmins might choose concrete highways. Timminspress.com. March 24th, 2017.

Hopefully, concrete might do a better job withstanding the potholes that have been plaguing me as I drive around Thunder Bay. It is difficult to remain upbeat when one's innards are constantly jarred by potholes.

Meanwhile, things are looking up in North Bay. While North Bay's population, like much of that in northern Ontario is aging at a fast rate, it remains that there might be a silver (no pun intended) lining....

Growing seniors resource to north and south represents jobs. Nugget.ca, March 25th, 2017.

Finally, this item in terms of potential impacts of alleviating access in remote First Nation communties:

Pilot project could see drones deliver much-needed items to northern Ontario First Nations. CBC Toronto. March 19th, 2017.

Have a great week!

NORTHERN ECONOMIST 2.0