This is the second in a series of posts in
which I will present evidence in an attempt to evaluate the Growth Plan for
Northern Ontario, which was released on March 4, 2011. The 25-year plan was to guide
provincial decision-making and investment in northern Ontario with the aim of
strengthening the regional economy and its ultimate goal was to strengthen the
economy of the North by:
- Diversifying
the region's traditional resource-based industries
- Stimulating
new investment and entrepreneurship
- Nurturing
new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.
While the provincial government did commit itself to the
development of performance measures for ministry specific initiatives that
supported the implementation of the plan, I will be using a broader set of
indicators of overall economic performance that are supported by the
availability of readily accessible public data. In this first post, I will be
looking at employment.
In the end, economic growth needs to translate into
employment opportunities and job creation and so the question is whether population
and employment in northern Ontario is greater now than in 2011? Economic growth and opportunity should
attract people to northern Ontario as well as reduce out-migration. The data is
available from Statistics Canada, specifically: Table 2820122 - Labor force survey
estimates (LFS), by provinces and economic regions based on 2011 Census
boundaries, 3-month moving average, un-adjusted for seasonality, monthly
(Persons unless specified). The
data was available for northeast and northwest Ontario and was aggregated to
provide evidence for northern Ontario as a whole.
Figures 1-5 present monthly data with a linear trend line
for population aged 15 years and over, full time employment, part time
employment, the labor force and the unemployment rate. This is done to provide complete
evidence on the trend over the six-year period. Figures 6-10 provide evidence for the same series but only
aggregated for the years for 2011 and 2016 to facilitate a comparison between start and end.
Figures 1-5 suggest that while there are seasonal ebbs and flows
to these variables, there has generally been a downward trend in population, as
well as both full and part time employment.
Moreover, the labor force has also shrunk over time.
However, the unemployment rate has
actually managed to trend slightly downwards between 2011 and 2016 which on the surface should be seen as positive news.
Figures 6-10 provide a more convenient snapshot of the
changes over the period the Growth Plan has been in effect to date.
Between 2011 and 2016, the population
aged 15 years of age and over in northern Ontario declined from 637,642 to
627,792 for a drop of 1.5 percent.
Full-time employment in northern Ontario declined from 284,083 jobs in
2011 to 278,717 jobs by 2016 for a percent drop of 1.9 percent.
Part-time employment fell over the same
period from 75,433 jobs to 68,883 jobs or a drop of 8.7 percent.
Meanwhile, the labor force fell from
390,133 to 374,450 for a drop of 4 percent.
Total employment fell from 359,517 to 347,600 for a drop of
3.3 percent while the labor force shrank by 4 percent.
The labor force shrinking faster than
employment helps explain why despite the downward trend in job creation, the
unemployment rate actually falls from 7.8 percent to 7.2 percent between 2011
and 2016.
This evidence suggests that despite the presence of a growth
plan designed to boost the economy of the region, there has not been an upward
trend in employment.
While a
falling unemployment rate is positive news, it appears to be the result of the
labor force shrinking faster than employment.
Stay tuned. More to come in my next post on this subject.
