Along with the release of the federal budget last week, there also appeared the 2026 edition of the Fiscal Reference Tables. While there is much about the workings of the Canadian federation in this fiscal resource to digest, of particular interest are the numbers with respect to deficits. As we appear to have embarked on a new era of large deficits at both the federal and provincial levels, it is only natural that we take a retrospective look at deficits in our fiscal history.
Figure 1 plots the federal and provincial-territorial deficits for the fiscal years from 1990/91 to 2025/26. The best year for the federal government – the largest surplus – was 2000/01 which saw a surplus of $19.9 billion while the worst year – the biggest deficit – was of course the pandemic year of 2020/21. When one examines the combined provincial-territorial deficits, the best year was 2006/07 at a surplus of $18.5 billion while the worst year was again the 2020/21 pandemic year at -47.7 billion.
Figure 2 plots the combined federal-provincial-territorial deficit by fiscal year as well as the total as a percent share of GDP. The best year for a combined surplus was 2006/07 at $32.2 billion, and the largest combined deficit was again the 202/21 pandemic year. As a share of GDP, the worst year was again 2020/21 at -17 percent while the best combined year was a surplus of 3 percent of GDP achieved in 2000/01.
Also, of importance is what the accumulated deficits of these respective governments are. Figure 3 plots the accumulated deficits over the 1990/91 to 2025/26 period and the grand total over this 36-year period for the federal government is $957.9 billion while for all the provinces and territories combined it is $315.9 billion. However, there are some fiscal entities that managed to accumulate a surplus over the long term. Alberta managed an accumulated surplus since 1990/91 of $4.1 billion while the Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut (only from 1999/00 to 2025/26) all managed an accumulated surplus ranging from $677 million for the Yukon to $1.9 billion for Nunavut.
Finally, Figure 4 takes the 36 fiscal years and presents the percentage of those years in which a deficit was incurred. The federal government ran a deficit 69 percent of the time. The provinces and territories had a rather varied performance ranging from a high for Ontario -the “winner” at 83 percent of fiscal years with a deficit – to a low of 4 percent for Nunavut which appears to be a model of fiscal rectitude when it comes to its budgets. Nova Scotia and Alberta are the best provincial performers in terms of years without a deficit. After Ontario, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador are the worst performances with deficits 75 percent of the time.
As for government debt, that is another story for another time.
