The news on COVID infections in Ontario has become quite
positive in recent days with counts showing a decline. Indeed, as Figure 1 shows,there is a definite downwards slope to the daily count profile but we are still some distance away from the lows reached circa the first week of August when daily counts average about 100 per day. Given the total number of current cases of 275,330, 100 cases per day constitutes a growth rate in cases of about 1/3 of one percent whereas it is currently about 15 times higher at 0.6 percent. However, the apparent downward trend will start the call for a relaxation of restrictions.
Needless to say, there are reasons not to start relaxing restrictions given the spread of the more contagious new variants as well as some erratic performance of the numbers with widely shifting daily case counts as new reporting systems are implemented. As well, as Figure 2 shows, deaths have yet to exhibit a substantial downward trend in Ontario.
At the same time, the new unemployment numbers released today suggest that protracted lock downs come at a great economic cost. However, the slow and reactive nature of Canadian governments to the pandemic has now put us in this place. In the absence of substantial high rates of vaccination - given that Canada is lagging other countries substantially - as well as more available rapid testing that would allow business to test and isolate their staff - it is difficult to see what the other options are?
As for Thunder Bay, well the daily case count trends there do not look too good. As Figure 3 shows, we have gone up and still appear to be quite high. While the majority of the recent cases have been confined to the institutional settings of the prison and correctional center, it remains that with the staff going back and forth to home and work and the release of some prisoners into the community, the potential for rapid community spread is still high.
Needless to say, the move by the Mayor to declare a second state of emergency makes perfect sense given the need to isolate and protect vulnerable populations. At the same time, the Mayor also called for relaxation of lock down restrictions for small business a few days before which appears somewhat inconsistent with what followed, but politicians are known for changing their minds. Sometimes, it is even based on evidence.
Given its low population density and relative isolation, Thunder Bay should be able to create a reasonably good bubble. However, as isolated as it is, it would appear that cases continually pop up and quite a few are linked to travel. While it is true the number of cases directly linked to travel are small, it remains that those cases have spread the virus whether the case counts and testing catch it or not. The best thing Thunder Bay and the District Health Unit could do right now is help the move to implement more rapid testing starting with everyone who gets off a plane at the Thunder Bay Airport.
It would be more useful to catch them as they arrive rather than several weeks later with the subsequent announcement that someone on a flight tested positive. Rapid testing services should also be provided to businesses and institutions that want to open up more generally. As well, why not innovate a testing version of the "Ride" program? The District Health Unit with a mobile van in conjunction with the Thunder Bay police should pick locations around town where continually shifting traffic stop points are set up. Traffic stops would be conducted and the driver and passengers pulled aside and asked what "essential business they are up to" and then provided with a rapid test and must await the result in their vehicle. Indeed, given there are limited ways to drive to Thunder Bay, the odd random checkpoint at the City limits might also be a good thing to try.
No doubt there will be many who argue that this is "authoritarian" and an infringement of "Freedoms." Okay. Make the rapid test voluntary if you want. It can be declined. However, it is still an opportunity for health unit officials to stop and provide information and get the message out in a more direct way to a public that often still does not get it. The inconvenience of being stopped in itself may make people think twice about going out for non-essential reasons and help slow transmission.
