Despite the snow on the ground, spring has arrived at the Port of Thunder Bay and that means two things. First, the arrival of the first international salty with the MV Kathy McKeil passing the breakwall at on March 26. Second, there is the annual Opening of Navigation Luncheon which will take place this year on April 8th at the Italian Cultural Centre in Thunder Bay. These annual events always remind us of the importance of the Port of Thunder Bay, not only in the past when the twin ports of Port Arthur and Fort William were the largest grain port in the world but at present given the revitalization of the port’s activity since 2000 and especially over the last decade. As of 2024, the Port provided approximately 1,000 direct jobs and an annual economic impact of $370 million.
It bears looking at some of the recent trends in the main cargo that passes through the port. Figure 1 presents a plot of total tonnage through the port since 2000 along with a LOWESS smooth to isolate the trends and there has been a pronounced upward trend since 2010 with an average annual growth rate in total tonnage of 1.3 percent annually since 2000 and 3.3 percent since 2010. In 2025, total tonnage through the Port of Thunder Bay was 10.8 million tonnes.
Of course, the main commodity remains grain accounting in 2025 for 84 percent of total tonnage shipped. Figure 2 presents grain tonnage through the port since 2000 and again with the trend shows an increase after 2010 with a plateauing from about 2016 to 2020 and then another surge bringing total grain tonnage shipped in 2025 to almost 9 million tonnes. From 2000 to 2025, grain tonnage shipped has grown at an annual rate of 1.9 percent but since 2010 the growth rate averaged 4.1 percent annually. Figures 3 and 4 repeat the plots for potash and dry bulk. Since 2000, potash shipments in tonnes have grown at an annual rate of 9.6 percent but since 2010 the growth rate has been 20 percent. Meanwhile, dry bulk since 2000 grew at an annual rate of 7.1 percent with the period since 2010 seeing annual growth of 5.7 percent.
With the renewed emphasis on east-west trade within Canada along with the disruption in world markets and shipping as a result the ongoing wars in the crucial cross-roads of the Middle East, one expects the demand for Canadian resource products as well as shipments through Thunder Bay to increase in 2026. This will be a boon to the Thunder Bay economy and a counterweight to the forecasts of tepid growth in 2026 from Signal49 research.The Port of Thunder Bay remains an important component of local and regional economic activity.
