Based on evidence from other countries, which are often ahead of the curve when it comes to COVID, a fourth wave fueled by the
Delta variant in Canada is inevitable.
It has also become increasingly evident that, the simplest way to ensure
the fourth wave does not exceed the third wave is to doubly vaccinate the
entire population and as an added precaution retain the wearing of masks in
indoor public places. Yet, indifference,
lack of compliance and outright resistance to these measures has been an
increasingly troublesome feature of the pandemic.
Our medical experts now maintain that for herd immunity to
stamp out the pandemic, double vaccination rates need to
approach 90 percent. To date, we are
still well short of that in Canada.
While much is made of the statistic that 75
percent of the population is fully vaccinated that figure only refers to
the population aged 12 and older. When
it comes to the total population, we are only at 66 percent – not really much more
than where we were several months ago.
Even if you factor in that 14
percent of Canada’s population is under age 14 and the vaccine has not been
approved yet for 12 and under, that still means that about 20 to 25 percent of
Canada’s population above age 12 has still not been fully vaccinated and shows
little interest in doing so. When broken down by age, the highest vaccination rates are
in those aged 60 and over and range from 87 percent (60-69) to 92 percent
(80+). They then fall dramatically by
age group from 78 percent in the age 50-59 category to 67 percent by age 30-39
to 60 percent by age 18 to 29.
Getting your shot is essentially a public good. While the shot protects you it also protects
others by breaking up the cycle of transmission. This is what is known in economics as an externality. Now in public finance theory, a pure public
good is a good characterized by a consumption externality. That is, everyone must consume the same
amount of the good because once it is provided for one individual it is
provided for all. However, a problem
results in terms of how this good is to then be paid for. If there is no way to exclude individuals
from consumption, then individuals can be tempted to enjoy the benefit of the
public good without contributing to the cost.
This is known as free riding behaviour.
Free riding is the outcome of the self-interest which
economists assume drives individual behaviour coupled with the characteristics
of public goods. Once a public good is
produced, it is difficult to prevent others from consuming it and their
consumption does not diminish the satisfaction of other consumers. If the financing of this public good were to
rely on voluntary contributions, the presence of free riding behaviour would
result in no one contributing to it in the anticipation that someone else
would. The result would be zero
provision of the public good. Because of
free riding behaviour, there is essentially a market failure in the provision
of the public good by voluntary or private means. The solution is for government to provide the
public good. Since government has a monopoly
on coercive force, it can levy taxes to finance the public good.
So how does this apply to vaccinations and anti-vaxxers? Well, it is tempting
to argue that anti-vaxxers are either extreme libertarians or do not understand
science or that they are mainly short-sighted younger people who think they are
immortal, but the problem is probably more insidious than that. What we are seeing aside from a small
minority who are more ideologically driven is more traditional free riding
behaviour. These individuals essentially
cannot be bothered to take the time to go out and get their shot because they
figure that if everyone else gets their shot then they will be protected
anyway. They do not really care about
the externality they provide by getting the shot and view the benefits to
themselves as small given the risk of severe complications from the disease
relative to the inconvenience of getting a shot.
Put another way, free riding is more selfish behaviour while
not free riding is more cooperative behaviour.
Free riders are the same type of people who throw their coffee cups out
of windows while driving or let their dogs bark incessantly outside in the middle of
the night or do not contribute to charity.
They do not do anything unless there is an incentive or direct benefit
to themselves to do so which is why in the end the government mandated solution
of vaccine passports is the only way forward if you want to get this
particular externality dealt with. Once access to activities is curtailed in the absence of being double vaccinated, the benefits of getting a vaccine will rise providing the necessary incentive.
Are young people more likely to free ride? No. Free
riding cuts across all age groups but given the lethality of the disease as you
get older, older free riders are quicker to see the light and eventually get
their shots. In the case of vaccines,
the benefits of free riding are simply greater for younger demographics which
means they will persist in their behaviour longer in the absence of incentives to do otherwise. Moreover, the percentage of free riders can
grow over time if it becomes apparent that others are not following the
rules.
Indeed, some of the economics literature I’ve seen suggests that
the percentage of chronic free riders in any human population can range from 20
to 30 percent. Most of the time, society
manages to function well just the same because the vast majority engage in more
cooperative behaviour. At the same time,
20 to 30 percent free riders pretty much matches the current statistics of vaccination
non-take up rates in Canada. It also
suggests that the proportion of free riders in a population is not set in stone
and can vary based on local conditions.
After all, the United States which traditionally has had a more
individualistic society than Canada has even lower vaccine take up rates.
