Well, the results are in and little has changed at the federal level at least on the surface. What was viewed as an unnecessary election has yielded the anticipated result - a minority Liberal government with little to show for the effort aside from the expenditure of over $600 million dollars to run a pandemic election. The distribution of seats has changed little. It may be tempting to conclude that little has changed and it is business as usual but the election does have a number of longer-term implications.
First, it has introduced Canadians to Erin O'Toole in a major way. He is now a more visible leader and does position him well for a second run. He did not do better partly because of the upsurge in support for the People's Party, partly because in the GTA voters decided the Liberal child care plan was more to their liking and partly because the Ontario conservative political machine essentially stepped back. He now has the opportunity to work at remedying that state of affairs.
Second, all of the three major parties have essentially been weakened and being weak creates insecurity and the prospect of a more fractious and unstable parliament at a time when the pandemic is still on. The Liberals may indeed argue that we now need to work together to finish off the pandemic but the counter will be that despite a pandemic we had an election anyway so the prospects of being punished for a pandemic election grow weaker as a threat. Pulling the trigger will be easier the next time for both the liberals as well as whatever party is propping up the government.
The Liberals wanted a majority and did not get one and the acrimony of the campaign means a less civil climate for working together with the other parties. While the NDP party will still support them, the price for their support will inevitably move upwards but at the same time, given that they did no better than last time, the NDP will not have as much leverage as they might imagine. And the Conservatives will have a lot of regrouping and thinking to do given their platform in the end did not make the inroads into the urban areas that they would have wanted.
Interestingly enough, in the dying days of the campaign, the Prime minister noted he was willing to consider electoral reform - again. Of course, why he would now want to abandon a first past the post system that allows him to form a government with barely one third the popular vote is something that remains to be seen.
So, that is where we are at for the time being.
