Tallying the Election Results in Thunder Bay

 

The people have spoken and Thunder Bay – along with all the other municipalities in Ontario – has a new mayor and council.  Congratulations to the incoming Mayor and City Council members as well as to all the candidates who put their names forward and ran.  Running for office and serving as the public in an elected role is a challenging and important task and vital to the functioning of our system of government.  

 

 It was certainly an interesting evening last night not the least because of the exasperating nature of the election results.  Despite our “state of the art” modern election system in Thunder Bay that combines online, phone, in-person, and drive through voting and with over one fifth of eligible ballots cast in advance, it took several hours before any meaningful results were delivered.  One hopes that this process will be thoroughly reviewed because in order for the public to have confidence in their voting system, the smooth running and operation of the system sends an important signal and that was certainly lacking last evening.

 

As for the results, Figure 1 presents the winners as well as their percent share of votes cast.  With about 35,421 votes cast (at my last tally) Ken Boshcoff emerged the winner as Mayor with 38.2 percent of the ballots cast with Gary Mack in second place with 34.3 percent of the ballots cast.  The At-Large winners (with over 140,000 votes given every elector can vote for up to 5) were Mark Bentz (11%), Shelby Ch’ng (9.4%), Trevor Giertuga (8.6%), Rajni Agarwal (7.6%) and Kasey Etreni (7.2%).  In terms of the Ward races, Michael Zussino took Red River with 33.4% of the vote, Albert Aiello retook McIntyre with 63.3% of the vote, Kristen Oliver held Westfort with 45.9% of the vote, Dominic Pasqualino won in Northwood with 41.6% of the vote, Brian Hamilton kept McKellar at 53.5% of the vote, Andrew Foulds kept Current River with 74.9% (a ringing endorsement one might add) and Greg Johnsen won Neebing with 36.1 percent of the vote.  

 

 

 

Was this a change council? Not really.  If you want to see the results of a "change" election you should check out Hamilton's results where three incumbents actually lost their seats and there are ten new faces on their City Council which consists of a Mayor and 15 ward councillors. In Thunder Bay with a council of twelve plus a mayor, seven of the elected councilors are incumbents (Bentz, Ch-ng, Giertuga, Aiello, Oliver, Hamilton and Foulds). If one counts Peng You as an incumbent then there was an incumbent not returned. As for the Mayor, well he has been Mayor before and a familiar face and is effectively an honorary incumbent making for eight incumbents on council.  Are the other five a vote for change?  At best managed change given that they probably only won because a number of incumbents chose not to run thereby making room for a few new faces.  Name recognition is important in politics and in Thunder Bay given its closeted nature even more so, which is why constant calls for people to run because there is a “candidate shortage” was so amusing to observe this summer.  Ward contests with more than three candidates essentially guarantee a win for incumbents and At-Large slates with upwards of 25 to 30 candidates for five positions pretty much do the same for those races.  Sometimes, quality of candidate should be a more important consideration than quantity.

 

Will it be smooth sailing for this council?  There are a lot of issues coming down the pipeline – not least of which will be policing - and one expects the honeymoon period will be short-lived especially with an anticipated major hike in property taxes being rumoured.  The other interesting issue is whether or not we should reform City Council and go to a fully At-Large system of between 8 and 12 councillors plus a mayor.  I would say the answer is a definite no.   If one looks at the results in Figure 1, the five At-Large winners have each won with barely 10 percent of the votes cast in their favour in the At-Large competition. They can claim to “represent” the interests of the entire city, but it remains that they do not have an overwhelming mandate aside from the fact they got the biggest numbers in a ranking.  The mayor’s position did somewhat better at nearly 40 percent.  It is the wards where the strongest mandates have emerged.  In three of the seven wards, the winners actually got a majority of the votes case, while in an additional two they were over 40 percent.  I would say there if you truly wanted democracy, there is probably a better case for an all-ward system than a fully At-Large system.

 

One other point.  Take a look at figures 2 and 3.  These are the “projected” winners based on the TBNewswatch online polls that took place the weeks of August 20 to 27 and October 7 to 17.  They are a mix of highly accurate projections and wildly off the mark results.  In the case of the mayor’s race, the McIntyre, and Current River Wards they were consistent with the actual election results though the percentages vary quite a bit.  For the At-Large race, they consistently showed Bentz as a winner but there was quite a bit of variation in the others over time.  Pretty similar conclusion from the remaining ward competitions which saw quite a few flip-flops though in the case of some wards like Westfort they probably reflect the closer nature of the race.  In the case of McKellar or Neebing it was either a really volatile race or well…something else perhaps given the nature of online polling.

 

So, to repeat, congratulations to the new mayor and council.  And of course, once again the drama begins.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Economic Agenda for the Next City Council

 

By late Monday evening, we will have in place the Thunder Bay City Council for the next four years and they will need to grapple with an assortment of issues not least of which will be trying to promote the City’s economic development.  As was noted in a report released last week, Thunder Bay’s economy has rebounded from the pandemic but still faces strong headwinds.  As the accompanying figure shows, while the employment declines of the COVID-19 pandemic were the steepest in over a decade, the recovery appears to have settled us at employment totals that are pretty much close to the long-term trend of flat long-term performance.  

 

 

 

Indeed, Thunder Bay’s rebound in both employment and income has lagged that of the rest of the province.   Moreover, given that the economy as a whole is facing higher interest rates and the probability of a recession, the New Year may not be exceptionally buoyant.  Economic growth and expansion of the city’s tax base is crucial if Thunder Bay is to avoid large tax increases as it seeks to deal with an assortment of social issues - not least of which is policing - that may indeed prove costly to the city’s budget.

 

As a result, it is surprising that there was relatively little discussion of the economy in this election campaign but perhaps that is because the local economy is still rather flush with stimulus money from assorted government initiatives while the City of Thunder Bay enjoyed substantial government grant revenues and pandemic savings.  This will not last forever especially given that the economy may be moving into recession.   While much of what happens economically is due to external forces and beyond the direct purview of the City of Thunder Bay, there are steps City Council can take to prepare the city to take advantage of opportunity when it presents itself to help foster economic development and strengthen the local economy.

 

First, City Council needs to ensure the City of Thunder Bay develops a reputation for efficient and effective delivery of public services and infrastructure projects based on outcomes rather than  wishful thinking.  While a problem before the pandemic, at present projects are taking even longer to complete than necessary and are very disruptive to local businesses and residents.  For any businesses considering coming to Thunder Bay, nimbleness on the part of City projects and services is a positive feature.

 

Second, City Council will need to be more competitive on the tax front and that will require providing its existing basket of services with fewer employees in order to hold the line on taxes. This may indeed prove to be the most serious immediate challenge the new council faces given that inflation is high, and wage and cost pressures are immense.  Nevertheless, the temptation to simply pass these costs onto local business and residential ratepayers should be resisted.  As part of the process of becoming more competitive, City Council also needs to cut red tape and facilitate quicker approval for building and business projects.

 

Third, the social challenges facing Thunder Bay are an economic as well as a social issue given that they create an environment that does not put the City’s best face forward when trying to attract new economic activity.  City Council with the help of Federal, Provincial, and Indigenous governments needs to effectively tackle issues that are currently not conducive to attracting business to the City and these issues include poverty, homelessness, and crime.  Despite some of the rhetoric that has been going on in this election campaign, there is no easy solution to these problems, but the first step is to recognize that the problem requires a team effort by all levels of government.

 

Fourth, there are some bright spots in the City’s economy that go beyond the stabilization provided by a broader public sector that employs over 30 percent of workers in Thunder Bay mainly in health and education.  City economic development marketing strategies should focus on sectors with the most growth potential and these include tourism, mining, and transportation.  The recent success of cruise ship visits to the city while not a panacea is nevertheless an optimistic development.  Mining support and supply is also a source of future opportunities and with the trend towards "own-shoring" more economic activity domestically, our transportation sector – in particular the Port – stands to benefit from increased activity. As a start, this fall is expected to see a bumper crop of wheat on the Prairies and given the disruption in global grain markets, Thunder Bay’s Port should see increased activity. 

 

And finally, looking ahead towards the future, another looming economic iceberg is the potential for a new out migration wave which may not be the young but the senior population.  People in the 50 to 65 age range are currently thinking about where and when they will retire and looking forward many may indeed decide that Thunder Bay is not the place to live out their golden years.  There are many in this age range whose children have moved away to southern Ontario or further afield, and they thus face the choice of remaining here in retirement or relocating closer to children.  While much is made of the fact that housing costs a lot in other cities, it is likely going to become more affordable as prices decline over the next 6 to 12 months. 

 

Wealth and income rise with age and the loss of the purchasing power of people with substantial assets will not help the local economy.  Weighing in on decisions to stay or go are the need to downsize accommodation but there is a lack of affordable and quality apartment and condo housing in Thunder Bay.  Cheap and poor design is indeed an issue given Thunder Bay’s winter climate as there is a surprising lack of indoor parking in many existing condos in Thunder Bay.  Then, there are the types of services that become more important as one ages especially if you choose to remain in your own home and here there is relatively poor performance on things like municipal snow removal. 

 

Massive municipal windrows in your driveway after a storm aside, the oft-heard mantra that you can retire and stay in your home and get affordable services as you age is aspirational in Thunder Bay given that residential services take second place to government contracts and large business projects for many providers resulting in relatively high-cost services.  No one likes a small residential contract when there are bountiful government and institutional contracts available.  This has only grown worse in the post pandemic labour shortage/inflationary world – for example, the average quote for getting the exterior of your house painted has literally tripled over the last ten years.   This  is well above and beyond where inflation has been over the last decade even with the pandemic.

 

As expensive as some think life in other cities in the rest of Canada is compared to Thunder Bay, there is still a lot more competition elsewhere that keeps prices and quotes for services in check as well as a better stock of well-designed housing options for all demographic groups.  True, City Council cannot be expected to single-handedly address Thunder Bay’s business culture and less competitive monopoly environment.  After all, Thunder Bay has always been a sort of monopoly company town with large employers such as pulp mills or railways and their economic spinoffs serving as milch cows for local business - not to mention municipal taxes.  We are now a government town, but City Council can stop adding fuel to the fire by insisting on better value for money when it comes to the services it purchases. 

The Next Council: The Challenges for Thunder Bay

 

Shortly, there will be a municipal election in Thunder Bay with a new council selected.  It is likely there will be a major change in composition with quite a few new faces and this will usher in a period of change though perhaps not as much change as one might expect.  In the end, The City of Thunder Bay is a corporation and what an election does is essentially select its board of directors who serve as an executive laying out direction with execution and implementation being the responsibility of the City Administration. Sometimes, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

The City Manager reports to City Council and is responsible for putting into effect the directives of council within the framework of what is allowed by the Province of Ontario. More importantly, the City Manager and Administration possess the information set from which the councillors then make their decision.  As well, given their role as full time employees rather than part-time representatives,  they have the time to deal with the detail of issues.  Inevitably, some councillors will find the level of information and detail overwhelming.  The overwhelming  complexity of issues in the past has often resulted in meetings where councillors on the advice of administration quickly make decisions on millions of dollars of spending and complicated bylaws with long-term impact while then spending hours debating relatively minor matters involving a few thousand dollars.

 

There are some departing members of the outgoing council that it will be sad to see go given that among them are the remnants of what passes for a fiscal conservative in Thunder Bay political life these days.  Based on a perusal of the candidate slate currently up for election, this is likely to be one of the more activist councils that Thunder Bay has seen in some time and their first test will be the 2023 budget.  A relatively new council will be heavily dependent on the advice of administration and also eager to deliver on whatever promises they have made and agendas they campaigned on, and the result will likely be a heftier tax increase than has occurred over the last few years. 

 

The Mayor’s position is essentially one of first among equals despite whatever strong mayor powers are eventually afforded by the provincial government to Thunder Bay.  The outgoing Mayor was good for Thunder Bay given he was articulate, well informed and lent a certain dignity and gravitas to the position – though some times while in the midst of yet another marathon Zoom meeting he seemed increasingly exasperated and resembled an artist being forced to work on a much smaller canvas.  Such a sentiment is understandable, but the Mayor might have been happier by drawing inspiration from others in Thunder Bay and northern Ontario in a range of positions and occupations who have made a career of working on a smaller canvas.

 

In the end, the challenges for the next council are many.  There is a housing and homelessness crisis in Thunder Bay that parallels that in other cities given the climb in rents and home prices during the course of the pandemic.  There is crime – with 12 murders already in 2022, Thunder Bay is well on the road to regaining its title as Canada’s murder city in per capita terms. And of course who can forget infrastructure whether it is roads and sewers or recreational infrastructure given that the Turf facility has reared its head as an issue in the election with some candidates expressing support for the concept but not at the original high cost. 

 

Surprisingly, little mention has been made of the other chaotic infrastructure problem Thunder Bay faced during the pandemic which was the plague of leaky pipes in homes throughout the city  in the wake of the sodium hydroxide water supply lead mitigation experiment.  Needless to say, the public silence from the outgoing Mayor and council on this issue - no doubt on the legal advice from City Administration and its lawyers given potential costs and legal liabilities - has left a bitter taste for many.  So much for a friendly community oriented city with your elected representatives always ready to lend an ear.

 

And the biggest issue?  Well elections are in the end obviously no place for serious long term policy discussions but the fact remains that Thunder Bay’s regional role as a centre for a growing and under counted Indigenous population is the big one.  Increasingly Thunder Bay and its municipal ratepayers are paying for regional services on a city tax base.  The latest example here is in the case of the Thunder Bay Police Service and the recommended changes that among other things ultimately mean the Police Service has to take a regional lens to its operations.

 

A move to a more regional approach in policing in the end is a continuation of a trend over the last twenty-five years that can be best described as informal and piecemeal northwestern Ontario regional government by default - a regional hospital service, a district social services board, a district emergency service organization, and regional public utilities such as Synergy North and TBayTel. Indigenous organizations have also established presence in Thunder Bay and Sioux lookout providing regional services to their members.  Yet, there was never really any type of democratic regional mandate for this evolution.  True, one can always blame the province or Ottawa given that much of this is under provincial or federal jurisdiction but our local municipal leaders to date have ignored the long term picture painted by this evolution.  After all, it is a complicated and overwhelming set of circumstances.

 

Of course the trend to more regional services is also a function of the claim that Thunder Bay has under counted its population and more services need to be provided to service this under counted population.  But how can you provide more services if you do not know how many people there are? After all, on the one hand there are claims made by some municipal candidates we are losing people “daily” to other cities but at the same time there are apparently tens of thousands more people here who need services.  Which is it?  Unfortunately, social surveys based on self-reporting and life stories however compelling and reflective of reality do not a rigorous estimate make.   

 

At minimum you would think we could put an estimate together ourselves based on local and regional electricity use from Synergy,  cell phone and phone subscriptions from TBayTel, patient counts (given they have addresses or OHIP cards) from medical facilities in the region, and school enrollments from all the public boards.  These should be correlated with population growth and enable an estimate with upper and lower bounds keyed to census benchmarks.  In the absence of this, one ultimately has to accept the Census results which do say that according to the 2021 census, the number of Indigenous residents of the Thunder Bay Census Metropolitan Area grew by about 12 per cent between 2016 and 2021, to a total of 17,000 people.

 

And so, what next?  Well, one suspects that after a honey moon period of sunny optimism,   it will be business as usual for the next council accompanied with a fairly hefty tax increase.  All the candidates acknowledge a lot of issues ranging from roads to crime to  homelessness to mental health to opioid addiction.  They don’t agree with increasing what taxpayers pay when it comes to revisiting the Turf facility and want to explore alternatives  like donations and fundraising but in the end they will solve problems by “taking action” and “working tirelessly” which usually means a tax increase as a starting point under the banner of investing in ourselves and then avoiding constituents when they complain too much. 

 

Nevertheless, hope springs eternal.  Maybe this council will be different.

 

 

Thunder Bay's Mayoral Race: A Momentum Shift?

 

TBNewswatch has now done two online polls of the day asking respondents to indicate their preference for mayor.  The August 20^th poll was at the start of the race just after nominations closed and they showed Ken Boshcoff out as the clear frontrunner with a majority of the votes cast (51.9 percent).  In second place then was Peng You at 20.4 percent followed by Gary Mack at 17.3 percent.  Going forward to October 8^th, as of approximately 12 noon there had been a total of 1,552 ballots cast and the results show that Ken Boshcoff still appears headed to take the mayor’s chair with about 40 percent of the vote.  In second place is now Gary Mack with about 25 percent of the vote followed by Peng You at 24 percent.  Clint Harris and Robert Szczepanski come in next at 6.6 and 4.5 percent respectively.  These results are summarized in Figure 1 and the results for the October 8^th poll may change slightly as they were not yet final but after over 20 hours of online responding one suspects they will not change a great deal.

 

 

 

In terms of what has transpired, the clear majority of respondents in support of Ken Boshcoff at the dawn of the race has eroded somewhat as the campaign as progressed but he is still poised to take the mayor’s chair given the ground that has to be covered by the next two closest candidates – Mack and You.  Moreover, the fact is that they appear pretty evenly balanced in terms of support.  This is only an online poll with all of its attendant flaws and the only poll that counts is of course on election day but the two strongest candidates aside from Ken Boshcoff appear to have evenly split their support.  However, there is an additional dynamic and that is illustrated in Figure 2. 

 

 

In terms of the change percentage point share in candidate shares, the momentum since August 20^th appears to be in the Mack camp as his share has grown by 7.6 percentage points.  The You support has nevertheless  grown by 4 percent while Szczepanski has increased by 1.5 percent.  This growth appears to have been accompanied by a shift away from both Harris and Boshcoff with the later seeing the greatest percentage point decline. 

 

There are still nearly two weeks to go and it will be interesting to see if the mayoral race in Thunder Bay becomes a more competitive horse race with a photo finish.

The Thunder Bay Police Service Saga: Regional Government by Default?

 

The expert panel appointed to advise the Thunder Bay Police Services Board has released an interim report with some recommended changes and reforms to the Thunder Bay Police Service  and its oversight and operations.   The interim report addresses three areas where action can be taken in advance of the final report and they include: (1) the selection of a new Chief of Police, (2) appointment of a new Board and, (3) labour relations.  There are some key points made in this report that include more funding to strengthen civilian oversight, an arms-length Human Rights/Equity, Diversity Inclusion (EDI) Unit within the force, an expanded police services board with significant First Nations representation, and preference in the search for a new police chief to candidates who know Thunder Bay and who are Indigenous or racialized, as long as they meet other criteria.  Indeed, when taken in its entirety, implementation will be an expensive proposition and can be expected to have a significant impact on the City of Thunder Bay’s budget.

 

In looking through the report, an implicit theme is that the Thunder Bay Police Service has to take a regional lens to its role and operation.  Most interesting and significant in terms of a regional approach is the recommendation that a priority is to “Establish a formal nation-to-nation relationship with First Nations leaders to, among others, exchange information, consult on policy, address issues, and promote joint service delivery through a memorandum of understanding or formal agreement with policy and procedure (to ensure accountability and structure).”  

 

For example, in selecting a new police chief there is an action recommendation to consult with, seek input from and participation of Fort William First Nation, Anishinabek Nation, Nishnawbe-Aski Nation, Matawa First Nations, and Grand Council Treaty #3 in the selection committee and hiring process.  According to the interim report, the successful candidate must demonstrate “sound knowledge and appreciation of Thunder Bay as the regional hub of Northwestern Ontario” and understand “the presence and role of the region’s First Nations governments, and their relationship to Thunder Bay’s municipal government.” 

 

In selecting board members, the interim report recommends that Ontario’s Solicitor General should “seek exemption to expand its membership to 7 members and remove the requirement of local residency due to the unique nature of Thunder Bay as the regional hub of Northwestern Ontario and the need for the Board to be reflective of the communities the Police Service serves” and “In an expanded seven-member Board, Indigenous representation should rise to three. While one member should be from Fort William First Nation, the additional one or two members should be drawn from First Nations based on considerations including use of Thunder Bay’s educational, medical, and other services by members of their communities, and their history of leadership and advocacy for changes to policing, such as the Coroner’s Seven Youths’ Inquest, implementation of recommendations from the Inquest and initiatives related to anti-racism.” Implementing this in terms of picking who gets to be on the board should prove to be an interesting political balancing act and a delicate nation-to-nation negotiation.

 

Looking forward, a move to a more regional approach in policing in the end will be a continuation of a trend over the last twenty-five years that can be best described as informal northwestern Ontario regional government by default.  The Hardy Report on amalgamation for the Lakehead communities in the late 1960s made the case for a regional district government that was not acted on.  During my past  and more youthful forays on northern Ontario economic issues, the need for a regional approach not to mention regional government was something I opined on as the attached 1997 op-ed at the end of this article illustrates.  In some ways the piece is as relevant now as it was then.  Yet, what has come to pass over the subsequent decades is not a formal and structured approach to regional government but a piecemeal issue of the moment approach that in the end has created regional institutions but without direct accountability to a regional electorate except via an indirect process of voting for municipal representatives. 

 

We have over the last twenty years acquired a regional hospital service, a district social services board, a district emergency service organization, and regional public utilities such as Synergy North and TBayTel largely driven by Thunder Bay but with regional input from other communities.  Indigenous organizations have also established presence in Thunder Bay and Sioux lookout providing regional services to their members.  We have achieved regional government by default but without any coordinating mechanism and without any over-arching effort to see if we are getting effective regional government or value for money.  That might be fine if we were dealing with private economic endeavors and a competitive market that was creating regional businesses – after all, in the end, economic viability measures their performance and success - but taxpayer dollars are involved here.

 

With respect to the police service, giving it more of a regional mandate is in some sense at odds with its mandated purpose as Thunder Bay’s police service.  Expecting municipal ratepayers to fund a regional mandate for policing as necessary, laudable, and noble as it might be is not what municipal ratepayers signed up for.  Indeed, one might argue that what is needed here is twofold.  Regional police services as well as appropriate regional funding from the participating affected indigenous and non-indigenous partners, as well as the provincial government. 

 

One has to wonder if the ultimate result here given the documented shortcomings of the current police service, will not be reforming the Thunder Bay Police Service but a new Thunder Bay District Police Service that essentially absorbs the current police service into a new entity.  Again, if this is the intention, it should be done explicitly rather than by stealth, so we all know what everyone has signed up for, what is expected in terms of financial contributions and with contributions from regional partners as well as the provincial government.  Indeed, if what we are talking about is nation-to-nation relationships then there is also room for a federal role and contribution to this entire business.

 

This interim report represents a starting point for a much larger and very important conversation.  Like all reports, it represents some great thoughts but, in the end, it will be more important to think everything through.  It is remarkable  that in the midst of a municipal election, this report has not been more front and center as an issue for the mayor and councilor positions.

Thunder Bay City Council 101: Councillor Quiz

 

We are now about a month away from municipal election night in Thunder Bay and the election signs have been popping up in clusters on numerous high-profile intersections across the city as both heralds and omens of the blessed event.  There is potential for a fair degree of turnover in city council this year and that will have both costs and benefits not least will be the learning curve for new councillors as they acquire the information needed to perform effectively as councillors.  As has been noted, new councillors will need to be quick learners, multi-talented, adaptable, patient, and open to criticism both warranted and unwarranted and take it all in with a smile.  Indeed, adapting an old university joke to municipal government: City Councillors will need to take a lot of crap, the mayor will have to take a lot of crap and smile, while City Administrators must simply enjoy taking crap, given they have made a career out of it.  To assist incoming councillors in becoming City Councillors, find below a short multiple-choice quiz featuring hypothetical and not so hypothetical situations of varying degrees of seriousness and whimsy designed to test your knowledge and judgement on the eve of taking office.  If past experience is any indicator, returning councillors may also benefit from a refresher course. 

 

1.      You have spent two days with a prominent international business investor touring Thunder Bay showing them the local sights as well as parcels of municipal land available for sale and at the end of a successful visit, the businessperson announces intentions to invest.  The businessman is very grateful to you for your time and proceeds to privately present you will an expensive gift item (eg. Diamonds, expensive Scotch, etc..) as a show of appreciation.  You:

 

 

A.     Accept the gift as this is a common practice in their home country and you do not wish to offend them.

B.     You inspect the gift carefully for flaws in craftsmanship and file a report with the Canadian Manufacturer’s Association.

C.     You thank the businessperson for their kind thoughts, respectfully decline the gift and note that you were simply doing your duty as an elected official.

D.    You ask for gifts for all the members of council as well as the mayor because after all it has been a team effort.

E.     Ask for cash in lieu of the item as economists have demonstrated that cash transfers are welfare enhancing.

F.     Return the kind favour by offering to sell them a piece of land you personally own at a discount in lieu of buying the municipal property.

 

2.     By how much do you think the municipal tax levy should go up for the 2023 budget year?

A.     The rate of inflation.

B.     By whatever amount the city manager recommends but divided by two.

C.     The rate of inflation plus whatever percentage salary increase is going to go to senior city managers.

D.    Whatever it takes.

E.     Whatever the public lets you get away with.

F.     The rate of inflation plus the rate of population growth and divided by one tenth of the square root of the combined weight of any randomly selected six members of city council.

 

3.     Within two weeks of taking office, it is suddenly revealed that there is a major crisis in the finances of the City of Thunder Bay as a result of several successful lawsuits against the city as well as assorted unforeseen infrastructure and policing expenses, and the city is on the verge of bankruptcy.  You:

A.     Resign immediately.

B.     Blame the previous three city councils and mayors and then resign.

C.     Try to deflect attention from the crisis by proposing a motion to review street names with the aim of creating one name for streets currently with two or three separate names.

D.    Ask the provincial government for a bailout.

E.     Ask for a study from City Administration on the extent of the crisis and proposals to deal with it with a projected delivery date 12 months down the road.

F.     Take to social media with a campaign arguing that municipal financial problems are fake news.

 

4.     There has been talk of reforming Thunder Bay city council as to the size of city council as well as whether there should be Ward and At-Large Councillors.  City council should be reformed as follows:

A.     8 Ward councillors plus a mayor.

B.     8 At-Large councillors plus a mayor.

C.     4 Ward councillors, 4 At-Large Councillors plus a mayor and vice-mayor.

D.    4 large councillors, 4 small councillors plus a large mayor and a small vice Mayor.

E.     The Status Quo (7 ward councillors, 5 At-large plus a mayor)

F.     Modified Status Quo (6 ward councillors, 6 At Large plus an invitation to Prince Andrew to be our mayor for life).

G.    Hereditary Ward Councillors with formal titles (eg. Earl of Current River or Duke of Westfort) and the line of succession being the offspring or designate of current councillors starting, of course with the council as elected on October 24^th.

 

5.     What are the most important things to understand about attending a City Council meeting as a municipal councillor?

A.     The distinction between a balance sheet, a revenue statement, an expenditure statement, capital budget, operating budget, and slush fund, but not necessarily in that order.

B.     When it comes to meeting length, time is money, and that long meetings must mean the participants have an abundance of both.

C.     Robert’s Rules of Order and Codes of Conduct should be viewed as mere constraints on the creativity of councillors when it comes to interacting with one another and the public in solving issues.

D.    Deputations and public input are simply a formality and should be taken as an opportunity for you to demonstrate your rhetorical skills in debate with presenters.

E.     During televised meetings, it is important to turn off your microphone if muttering under your breath as well as make sure you do not fall asleep on camera.

F.     In-camera meetings are not a photo opportunity but where the real business of council takes place.

 

Suggested Answers:

1.     C though F may be tempting for some.

2.     E as F while technically elegant might be beyond the math skills of the average councillor.

3.     D or E are acceptable though C is an excellent diversionary tactic.

4.     E is likely given the law of inertia though F or G might be good for tourism.

5.     F with D and E acceptable choices for part marks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Redesigning Representation in Northwestern Ontario

 

In the wake of every Canadian Census, there is a redistribution of populations and representations for federal elections and the current census is no exception.  Much to the angst of many, the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission is recommending the Kenora riding be merged into Thunder Bay-Rainy River, creating a new and more widely spread-out Kenora-Thunder Bay-Rainy River. riding  A new riding of Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk has also been proposed to represent Ontario’s far north while Thunder Bay-Superior North remains relatively unchanged under the proposal. 

In the end, the ten federal northern Ontario ridings would go down to nine as Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing in the northeast is going to be eliminated and split between two neighbouring ridings. While its provincial representation for northern Ontario has been fixed for some time at eleven seats, there is fear that this decision may also be reversed down the road in the wake of these federal proposals thereby also weakening representation at the provincial level.

To provide a cohesive and distinct representative voice to the part of Ontario approximately north of 60 – which one thinks is part of the intent of this proposal - the result is somewhat lopsided ridings in Northwestern Ontario in terms of population.  The Kenora-Thunder Bay-Rainy River riding seems to clock in at about 101,000, Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk at just over 36,000 and Thunder Bay-Superior north grows a bit to 99,035.  Given the competing needs to ensure adequate representation that considers geographic spread, low population densities and population size, the Federal Electoral boundaries commission no doubt feels this is a suitable compromise to deal with the exceptional circumstances of the Far North of Ontario.

In the end, northern Ontario  is the victim of a changing population distribution given that its population is growing more slowly than the rest of the country.  Over the last decade, the North only grew about two percent - much of that in areas with more Indigenous population - while the rest of Ontario grew by well over 10 percent.  The geographic size of two of these riding is such that one will not envy the MP elected to serve those constituents and current MPs have already brought this up. Indeed, how an MP can adequately be familiar with the needs of constituents spread across a riding the size of several European countries combined and effectively represent them is a valid concern.  One will also probably not envy residents of Kenora or Dryden who will be put in a riding where Thunder Bay voters are the majority, and their issues and needs could potentially overwhelm the rest of the riding – more than they already do. 

Indeed, a resolution by Fort Frances City Council reflects that concern as they are asking The Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission consider creating a separate, single urban riding encompassing the City of Thunder Bay.  That is, the ask seems to be for a rural Thunder Bay Superior North Riding, a rural Thunder Bay-Rainy River Riding and an urban City of Thunder Bay riding – along with the new Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk one presumes.  Thunder Bay City Council not surprisingly has responded to the proposal with a request for the status quo- that is to maintain current representation.

These proposals are both unlikely to fly with the Commission given that it means either no change or four ridings instead of the proposed three as the overall population of the entire region obviously is slated for three ridings.  Thunder Bay voters and issues already dominate northwestern Ontario given that the city dominates the region with half of its population.    One could easily make the case for only two ridings in Northwestern Ontario – Greater Thunder Bay stretching approximately in a rectangle from the Town of Nipigon, north along highway 11 to Macdiarmid, west to Ignace and then directly south to the US border taking Atikokan along –Greater Northwest Ontario - the rest of Northwestern Ontario including the new Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk riding.  Indeed, if the region does not start to pick up the pace of economic development and population growth, in a decade the redistribution may indeed have to consider how to divide the Far North and the Northwest into just two ridings.

Thunder Bay itself has had the historical fortune of once being two cities and two riding with a substantial national economic role and that parlayed itself into a continuation of two ridings with expanded boundaries.  It has therefore enjoyed representation out of proportion to population size and influence for decades but has not always wielded it very effectively.  In the end, the last real heavyweight powerhouse Minister the region had at the federal level was C.D Howe and frankly given the general calibre of representation in recent decades it probably would not matter that much if Thunder Bay had two federal representatives or one.  The best case for either the status quo or even four ridings in place of the current proposal is an effective marshaling of the case that really large geographic ridings in rural remote regions do not provide for effective representation of the needs of their constituents. 

 

 

Your Next Thunder Bay City Council …According to TBNewswatch Polling

 

With the candidacy window closed as of August 19^th, the race for the October 24^th municipal election is now on and there is no shortage of candidates in Thunder Bay.  Every Ward has a race and the At-Large race has the usual bounty of candidates.  There are five candidates for Mayor, 24 for the At-Large race, three in Current River, two in McIntyre, four in McKellar, six in Neebing, five in Northwood, six in Red River and four in Westfort – a total of 59 candidates.  That pretty much matches the last time despite the lamentations of woe early on that there were no candidates.

 

The more interesting question in light of such a magnificent display of civic interest and spirit is who is going to win in each of the races.  TBNewswatch provides a valuable public service with its polls on various issues and it has over the period August 20 to 27 run polls for each of the races. Of course, this is not an unbiased random sampling procedure and one suspects the technologically savvy can affect the results but if these polls are accurate, this is what your next council may look like (percentage of votes cast in brackets)

 

Mayor                                      Ken Boschoff  (51.90 %)

At-Large Councillors                Mark Bentz (15.96%)

                                                Shane Judge (13.22%)

                                                Stephen Margarit (11.64%)

                                                Shelby Ch’ng (11.06%)

                                                Kasey Etreni (8.86%)

Red River                                 Martin Rukavina (28.83%)

McIntyre                                  Albert Aiello (50.16%)

Westfort                                 Kristen Oliver (49.27%)

Northwood                             Dominic Pasqualino (50.16%)

McKellar                                  Brian Hamilton (43.42%)

Current River                          Andrew Foulds (60.61%)

Neebing                                  Shaun Kennedy (39.22%)

 

Some of these wards appear to have closer races based on the TBNewswatch poll – namely Red River where Jason Veltri (24.45%)  is a close second, McIntyre where Brent Boyko is a very close (49.84%) second and McKellar where Lori Paras is close (39.95%).   This is not a scientific poll and even if it was, the only poll that counts is of course the one on election day.  Still, if these trends are on the mark, there may be substantial turnover on city council.  Change and new viewpoints can be very positive and many of these front runners are relatively known quantities while others are relative unknowns depending on what social circles you move in.

 

 It is worth googling these candidates and checking out their self-provided bios which provide an eclectic mix of entertaining and informative reading.  Some are quite informative and impressive, listing a series of career and community accomplishments. Some mention family relationships or their deep community connections to Thunder Bay. Some mention what they want to accomplish with an explicitness that may lose them as many votes as they may win, and some are vague to the point of not really saying anything at all by providing an endless string of platitudes.  The other thing worth noting is if one were to plot the candidates who seem to be leading the “poll” on a left/right or progressivist/passivist continuum, Thunder Bay is probably about to elect a council that is even less concerned about taxpayers and tax rates than the previous one. On the other hand, they may surprise us all with their fiscal astuteness.  Still, on voting day, choices must be made and if they turn out to be good ones, so much the better.

 

The next council inherits a lot of issues: crime and policing, social issues and homelessness and addiction, crumbling infrastructure, expensive lawsuits mainly linked to water and of course the still flat economy which has been masked by the generous amounts of government money that has flowed into Thunder Bay on both a private and public level.  New councillors will come in with pet projects and agendas but will quickly find that they must deal with resource constraints, a bureaucracy which generally has more information than they do and their own vested interests, and issues that will pop in from out of the blue.  New councillors will need to be quick learners, multi-talented, adaptable, patient and open to criticism both warranted and unwarranted and take it all in with a smile.  However, they will probably be spared from feeling like having to do windows on a skyscraper while perched on a precarious and narrow wooden seat.