In the wake of every Canadian Census, there is a redistribution of populations and representations for federal elections and the current census is no exception. Much to the angst of many, the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission is recommending the Kenora riding be merged into Thunder Bay-Rainy River, creating a new and more widely spread-out Kenora-Thunder Bay-Rainy River. riding A new riding of Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk has also been proposed to represent Ontario’s far north while Thunder Bay-Superior North remains relatively unchanged under the proposal.
In the end, the ten federal northern Ontario ridings would go down to nine as Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing in the northeast is going to be eliminated and split between two neighbouring ridings. While its provincial representation for northern Ontario has been fixed for some time at eleven seats, there is fear that this decision may also be reversed down the road in the wake of these federal proposals thereby also weakening representation at the provincial level.
To provide a cohesive and distinct representative voice to the part of Ontario approximately north of 60 – which one thinks is part of the intent of this proposal - the result is somewhat lopsided ridings in Northwestern Ontario in terms of population. The Kenora-Thunder Bay-Rainy River riding seems to clock in at about 101,000, Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk at just over 36,000 and Thunder Bay-Superior north grows a bit to 99,035. Given the competing needs to ensure adequate representation that considers geographic spread, low population densities and population size, the Federal Electoral boundaries commission no doubt feels this is a suitable compromise to deal with the exceptional circumstances of the Far North of Ontario.
In the end, northern Ontario is the victim of a changing population distribution given that its population is growing more slowly than the rest of the country. Over the last decade, the North only grew about two percent - much of that in areas with more Indigenous population - while the rest of Ontario grew by well over 10 percent. The geographic size of two of these riding is such that one will not envy the MP elected to serve those constituents and current MPs have already brought this up. Indeed, how an MP can adequately be familiar with the needs of constituents spread across a riding the size of several European countries combined and effectively represent them is a valid concern. One will also probably not envy residents of Kenora or Dryden who will be put in a riding where Thunder Bay voters are the majority, and their issues and needs could potentially overwhelm the rest of the riding – more than they already do.
Indeed, a resolution by Fort Frances City Council reflects that concern as they are asking The Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission consider creating a separate, single urban riding encompassing the City of Thunder Bay. That is, the ask seems to be for a rural Thunder Bay Superior North Riding, a rural Thunder Bay-Rainy River Riding and an urban City of Thunder Bay riding – along with the new Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk one presumes. Thunder Bay City Council not surprisingly has responded to the proposal with a request for the status quo- that is to maintain current representation.
These proposals are both unlikely to fly with the Commission given that it means either no change or four ridings instead of the proposed three as the overall population of the entire region obviously is slated for three ridings. Thunder Bay voters and issues already dominate northwestern Ontario given that the city dominates the region with half of its population. One could easily make the case for only two ridings in Northwestern Ontario – Greater Thunder Bay stretching approximately in a rectangle from the Town of Nipigon, north along highway 11 to Macdiarmid, west to Ignace and then directly south to the US border taking Atikokan along –Greater Northwest Ontario - the rest of Northwestern Ontario including the new Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk riding. Indeed, if the region does not start to pick up the pace of economic development and population growth, in a decade the redistribution may indeed have to consider how to divide the Far North and the Northwest into just two ridings.
Thunder Bay itself has had the historical fortune of once
being two cities and two riding with a substantial national economic role and that parlayed itself
into a continuation of two ridings with expanded boundaries. It has therefore enjoyed representation out
of proportion to population size and influence for decades but has not always
wielded it very effectively. In the end,
the last real heavyweight powerhouse Minister the region had at the federal
level was C.D Howe and frankly given the general calibre of representation in
recent decades it probably would not matter that much if Thunder Bay had two federal
representatives or one. The best case for either the status quo or even four ridings in place of the current proposal is an effective marshaling of the case that really large geographic ridings in rural remote regions do not provide for effective representation of the needs of their constituents.
