Today's case count for the Thunder Bay District was 46, coming on top of 61 the day previous. A LOWESS plot of the daily cases clearly show the steepness of the upward trend. The Federal Health Minister this morning on CBC radio noted the situation in Thunder Bay is very serious and potentially exponential. Given that exponential growth is a growth pattern that shows larger increases over time - that is the slope of a profile is getting steeper rather than diminishing - one might opine that we are probably already there. The per capita new case count in Thunder Bay district is now the highest in the province. When the plot is examined over the course of the year, Thunder Bay never really had a "first wave" and indeed its current wave occurs in two phases - a first one starting in November (circa Day 275) that in the end plateaued but never really subsided and a second one that begins to pick up speed the first week in January (circa Day 350) and has never really slowed down. At present there are now 389 active cases and 35 hospitalized of whom 8 are in the ICU. Have a nice weekend.
