Northern Economist 2.0

Showing posts with label horwath. Show all posts
Showing posts with label horwath. Show all posts

Saturday, 2 June 2018

What Should Northern Ontario Voters Do?


With a few days left before the June 7th provincial election, northern Ontario voters face important choices and consequences.  The governing Liberals appear headed for defeat if one is to believe the evolving poll trackers.  Indeed, Premier Wynne has acknowledged the election is lost.  This means that come June 8th there will be a new government with consequences for the region in terms of public policy.  Public policy is of importance to the region given government’s role in health, education and transportation, the dependence of the region on government employment for economic sustenance and the stalled regional economy, which has seen little net employment growth compared to the rest of the province.

The Liberals have been in power since 2003 and their tenure encompasses the forest sector crisis and the stalled Ring of Fire.  On the one hand, the forest sector crisis was a function of a rising Canadian dollar, aging private pulp mills and increased competition from abroad.  On the other hand, the increase in electricity rates did not help.  As for the Ring of Fire, in the end it is not going anywhere until chromite prices rise no matter how much is spent on infrastructure.  The Liberal government’s short-term response to northern development was increased government spending in the region via assorted projects and initiatives including highway work.   The long-term response was the 25-year northern Ontario growth plan – which it must be noted actually predates the Wynne government.  Interestingly enough, to date the growth plan has not been accompanied by significant results and more to the point, there has been no mention of it during the current campaign.  Make of that what you wish.  However, given Premier Wynne has acknowledged the election is lost, thought must also be given to ensuring the region has some representation in any new government that is formed.

The NDP has surged in the polls since the election was called and their policies in health, pharma care, education, rent control and hydro seem mainly to be extensions of what the Liberals have been campaigning on.  For a region dependent on government job creation, an NDP government would be business as usual but with a more ideological bent away from market-based solutions to the region’s issues.  If one wants to differentiate the two parties when it comes to northern policies, one would have to say a key difference is that the pleasant Andrea Horwath is presently more popular than Kathleen Wynne.  However, when the rest of the team accompanying Horwath is examined more closely one wonders about the depth of talent available to serve in portfolios like northern development, natural resources and health not to mention finance.  Most of her team seems drawn from public sector, labor union, non-profit and social activism sectors.  Even the usually ubiquitous lawyers that dot politics are relatively scarce. Aside from a short–term continuation of government spending, the long-term economic benefits of an NDP government for northern Ontario are uncertain despite the claim of change for the better.

Just as uncertain are what the benefits of a Doug Ford government would be for northern Ontario given the lack of a detailed and  clearly articulated northern platform.  Natural resource revenue sharing has been promised as well as a jump start to the Ring of Fire but as noted earlier, the price of chromite is not going anywhere soon.  If the desire is simply for policy change, that would certainly be provided by a Conservative government more so than by the NDP but that change given traditional conservative values, is likely to not support the current orientation of the region towards public sector dependency.  On the other hand, given that we have been subjected to activist government economic development policies for several decades, it may be time for a different approach.  Moreover, whatever one might think of Doug Ford, it remains that his team would include some proven talent when it comes to northern Ontario – Greg Rickford, Norm Miller and Vic Fedeli come to mind.  Further reflection should also be given to the prospect that based on the distribution of votes, poll trackers are suggesting a high probability of a Doug Ford administration.

So what is a northern Ontario voter to do?  Good question.  Think about the region and its economy and the direction you think it should go.   Think about what the benefits and cost of each party and their policies might be to you and your families and friends.  Then make your decision and go vote.  None of the above is really not an option.  One must make a choice from the options available. On June 8th, the sun will still rise.  The northern Ontario economy will still face challenges and they will need to be tackled no matter who forms the government. That is the only certainty.

Friday, 18 May 2018

Ontario's Political Future: Yours to Discover


Ontario’s election may very well be decided over the next few days as Ontarians pause to take in the long weekend and use it to step back and ruminate over the political future of the province.  One of the most recent polls reveals that the PCs are poised to form a majority government with 40 percent support.  However, what is also interesting is that over the last little while this poll shows that Liberal support has plummeted to 22 percent while NDP support has soared to 35 percent.  All this suggests that there is still a certain amount of volatility amongst the voters as we head into the home stretch of campaigning into the June 7th election.

So, what do Ontarians want?  On the one hand, the recent policy initiatives of the Ontario Liberals are popular across a large swath of Ontarians especially in the larger urban centers.  Investments in transit and infrastructure, the raising of the minimum wage, rent control, more health spending and a general activist government approach to social and economic policy seem to be what many Ontarians want.  Indeed, these policies are much like those the NDP is advocating and if one combines the Liberal and NDP totals it is obvious that 55 percent of Ontarians seem to want some type of centre-left approach to government and the economy.

It seems that many Ontarians want Liberal-NDP type policies but seem tired of having them implemented by the Liberals and particularly by Premier Wynne.  Kathleen Wynne is undoubtedly the most capable of the three leaders in terms of her handling of issues and her analysis and discussion of policy issues.  Yet, she is also quite driven and intensely focused with a sort of self-absorbed messianic zeal that can be interpreted as exclusionary to alternate opinions. The Liberals have been governing since 2003 and Ontarians who like centre-left policies and would like to see a change in government are likely to shift to the NDP – hence the Andrea Horwath-NDP surge.

As for the PCs, their policy platform has been less clear and it is difficult to see if they really are driven by conservative values and policies or are now simply a change party driven by the personality of their leader.  Doug Ford has a much larger appeal than urban elites in the Toronto-Ottawa corridor would have expected and his support is also diverse.  However, to date the policies and changes the PCs might bring to government have not been as clearly articulated as those of the other two leaders.  Much of the campaign is really a populist drive for change with a rhetoric directed at the “little guy” to contrast with perceptions of the Liberals as elitist. 

Put another way, you know what you are going to get if the Liberals form the government – more of the same.  If the NDP form the government, it will be essentially the same policies but more so and with a new leader.  In terms of fiscal management, there will be a very elastic budget constraint for years to come from either the Liberals or the NDP.  Yet it should also be noted that, to date none of the three leaders seem particularly concerned about the state of the province’s finances and one does not see the province’s debt abiding anytime under either Wynne, Horwath or Ford.

If the PCs form the government, it is not so clear what you are getting in terms of policy approaches to social and economic policy as well as fiscal management.  One might assume that as PCs, there will be an emphasis on deregulation or more efficient government but this is not clearly apparent to me.  There have been a number of promised tax cut announcements but this is not the same as a coherent tax reform strategy.  Yet, making it clearer might also coalesce support more strongly around one of the two centre-left options.  At this point, the PCs appeal cuts across a wide socio-economic range and perhaps their strategy is to promise change but not get too specific and split the left.

So, what is an Ontarian to do this long weekend as they think about the province’s future?  It should be to think long and hard about the direction of the province in terms what is the coherent big picture vision of the economy and the province’s finances these three main party leaders are offering.  To date, the campaign has focused on disjointed announcements of spending and programs designed to target key ridings or voter demographics. The money to pay for all of this is not a concern.  Ontarians of course deserve much more than this but are unlikely to get it.  All three leaders seem to believe that elections campaigns are not the time to articulate coherent economic and fiscal visions.