“So in the Libyan fable it is told That once an eagle, stricken with a dart, Said, when he saw the fashion of the shaft, ‘With our own feathers, not by others’ hands, Are we now smitten.”
― Aeschylus
The merger of the Northwest Company of Montreal (NWC) and the Hudson Bay Company (HBC) in 1821 led to the complete absorption and end of the Montreal based fur trade. The negotiations in London ultimately pitted the western based partners of the NWC against the eastern based Montreal agents who were apparently unaware the other was negotiating with the HBC. In the end, the HBC negotiators were able to extract better terms as a result of the lack of unity amongst the NWC shareholders. The tension between the western based Wintering Partners in the fur resource hinterlands and the capital raising Montreal Agents eventually proved to be the Achilles heel of the NWC.
As noted by Harold Adams Innis, the NWC, whose operations stretched from east to west along the waterways of the Canadian Shield, was essentially the forerunner of the Canadian federation. The east-west tensions of the fur trade have also been replicated within Confederation with the western resource-based provinces in particular tugging against capital intensive central provinces of Ontario and Quebec. While history does not repeat, itself, the similarity of circumstances and economic forces does lead to what can best be termed repetitive patterns of issues. In the case of western Canada, much of the tension is rooted in historical grievance given that unlike Ontario and Quebec, the west did not get control of its natural resources from the federal government until 1930. Moreover, federal resource and energy policy – in particular the National Energy Program of the early 1980s – was seen as directly counter to the economic and business interests of energy producing western provinces.
Which brings us to the present day and the current desire by some Albertans to separate from Canada. Despite a federal government that appears quite sympathetic to Alberta’s current energy interests, Alberta is embarking on a referendum to decide whether to hold a referendum on separating from Canada. It appears that Canada will again be consumed with fate of the nation debates, dilemmas and brinksmanship. And, depending on what happens this fall in Quebec, there is the distinct possibility that the Parti Quebecois will form the government with the prospects of yet another sovereignty referendum in that province. Needless to say, there will again be a market for assorted Captain Canadas to come to the rescue. When not railing against Ottawa, there is nothing Canada’s Premiers like better than embarking on heroic cross Canada tours professing their love for the country. After all, what better way to divert constituents from their provincial problems than by their dashing Premier helping to save the country.
Canada has always been one of the most fortunate and blessed of countries possessing abundant resources, oceans on three sides to shield us from adversaries and despite recent frictions, a largely benign southern neighbour that served as an economic partner and yet was generally oblivious of our presence. Canada developed a high material standard of living and by the measures of a dangerous world, a rather open and unique approach to international relations that allowed us to underspend on national security while moralizing and lecturing others without worry as to the consequences. We became a nation of happy Hobbits, dancing away the long summer days and celebrating our good fortune while ignoring the dark Mordorian clouds swirling about.
Taking Canada’s blessed situation for granted afforded us the luxury of consuming ourselves with questions of national existence. It also created situations that by world standards, were somewhat comedic. After all, what other country could have pulled off the self-absorbed 1990s drama of having a separatist as the Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition? On the one hand, that Canada could undergo such tensions and stresses and remain a bastion of civil order and discourse, is an achievement in itself. On the other hand, how many times can a country continually come to the brink and then retreat?
It is now Alberta’s moment in the sovereignty sun and its Premier in typically Canadian fashion has decided that it will be a referendum if necessary but not necessarily a referendum. The Premier of Alberta is not a separatist and notwithstanding legitimate concerns regarding equalization, resource management and energy policy, neither are the vast majority of Alberta’s people. However, the Alberta Premier is a politician and is forced to balance diverse interests and constituencies with a referendum stand that in the end will likely satisfy no one. However, wielding the separatism spectre might be a convenient cudgel in making sure Alberta’s energy sector is in no way compromised in the upcoming CUSMA negotiations and that the federal government does not retreat from its advocacy for new pipelines. It is however a dangerous game. When you light a fire, you do not always get a controlled burn.
Of course, there are some Albertans who would be happy to leave the most successful federation in modern history for a future as a landlocked country joining the ranks of Kyrgyzstan, Ethiopia and Uzbekistan. To be fair, these same Albertans probably see their future more as a unitary energy powered Switzerland or Austria. Interestingly enough, these very successful countries are actually federations rather than unitary states and also not dependent on boom bust energy products for twenty percent of GDP and government revenues, as well as seventy percent of exports. While Alberta has the highest per capita GDP in Canada and is riding a wave of prosperity, it risks creating investment uncertainty for itself and the rest of the country. As economist Trevor Tombe has noted, a separate Alberta would be a poorer Alberta. It is likely not a coincidence that never-ending threats of separation and referendums in Quebec until the 1990s were correlated with the stagnation of Montreal’s economy and the growth of Toronto’s.
Yet here we are. This new wave of national torsion will come at a time not only of growing international political and economic uncertainty, but in the midst of what will likely be a most acrimonious and hardball renegotiation of our trading relationship with the United States. Needless to say, Canada is the most self-indulgent of countries if it believes that internal divisions will not affect its role in the world and will not be taken advantage of by adversaries. In the end, if we are unable to make our way in the world via improved trade arrangements and investment because of continued unfortunate distractions generating political and economic uncertainty, we will have no one but ourselves to blame.
