A couple of weeks ago, Statistics Canada updated
its population estimates for sub provincial areas including CMAs (Census
Metropolitan Areas) and CAs (Census Agglomerations). In terms of the
distinction between the two, CMAS have populations of over 100,000 while CAs range
from 10,000 to 100,000. As the release
noted:
“On July 1, 2025, the total population of Canada's 41
census metropolitan areas (CMAs)—large urban centres with populations above
100,000—reached 31,169,100 people. Following three years marked by strong
population growth, CMAs experienced significantly slower population increases
from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025 (+1.0%). In contrast, the population grew by
3.5% from July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024. Regions outside of CMAs also
experienced slower population growth from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025. Census
agglomerations (CAs)—smaller urban centres with populations ranging from 10,000
to 100,000—saw their population grow at a rate of +0.9% during that period,
while areas outside CMAs and CAs grew by +0.7%. One year earlier, those areas
had recorded growth rates of +2.0% and +1.0%, respectively.”
That population growth slowed in 2025 because of changes to
immigration is the key story in this release but what is also interesting is what population
change has been like over the entire pandemic and post-pandemic period - from 2020
to 2025 - considering the new updated numbers.
Figure 1 plots the ranked percentage growth in population for Canadian
CMAs from 2020 to 2025. Over this
period, Canada’s population grew from 38.023 million to 41.652 million – an increase
of 9.5 percent or 3.623 million. Growth
in the urban areas was 10.4 percent for all CMAs and CAs combined
and 10.9 percent for the CMAs alone. The
fastest population growth was for Moncton (24%), Calgary (20.1%), Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo
(17.8%), Oshawa (16.3% and Edmonton (15.8%).
Out of the 43 CMAs, Vancouver ranked 18th at 12.3% growth, Toronto
ranked 27th at 9.5% growth and Montreal 41st at 5.5%.
Of course, what is also of interest to those of us here up North
is that northern Ontario CMAs also saw an increase in population with Greater Sudbury
seeing an increase from 176,580 to 194,278 – 17,698 more people for an increase
of 10 percent. Thunder Bay saw an increase from 128,815 to 133,765 for an
increase of 4,950 people or 3.8 percent.
Incidentally, of the 43 CMAs, Thunder Bay ranked 43rd. Naturally, many local boosters will argue
that Thunder Bay is unique and comparing Thunder Bay with so many larger
centres is like comparing apples and oranges, so Figure 2 provides a ranked comparison
with our own local fruit orchard and also includes CAs.
Figure 2 shows that the fastest growth over the 2020 to 2025
period was in North Bay at 13.8 percent.
North Bay’s population rose from 73,974 to 84,384. The next largest
percent increase was for the Sault which went from 80,757 to 88,307 for an
increase of 10.1 percent. Greater Sudbury came in third with an increase of 10
percent while Timmins was 4th with an increase of 2,999 people or
7.5 percent. Thunder Bay came in 5th
at 3.8 percent and managed to beat out both Elliot Lake (1.6%) and Kenora, which
saw a decline of 1.5 percent.
Those are the numbers as they currently stand.
