Technological change has been the chief contributor to
economic growth since the industrial revolution. Yet, technological change
always seems accompanied by anxieties related to long-term unemployment despite
increases in both total employment and per capita income over the last 150 years. This anxiety continues with the
current onset and diffusion of assorted new technologies including AI, machine learning
and quantum computing. Yet the evidence
suggests that despite over 150 years of rapid technological change, more jobs
have been created than destroyed so that on net employment has continued to
rise and matched or exceeded population growth.
My coauthor Olivia
Di Matteo (UBC) and I have a paper on the program of the Social Science History Association Meetings
in Toronto this week that looks at whether the past can inform the future when
it comes to the impact of technology – quantum computing in particular – on the
economy. Our paper overviews the recent
history of technological anxiety with comparison to actual outcomes, surveys
the state of quantum computing and the challenges it faces, and then tries to
extrapolate from current available metrics and past performance what the
potential effects on employment and income might be. The historical evidence suggests a positive
and significant relationship between income, employment and assorted measures
of technological change including computing measures. Going forward there is no reason why future
growth cannot benefit from new quantum technology, but much depends on having a
measure of quantum computing to gauge its impact on income and employment. Measuring the impact of quantum computing is
more difficult given that new metrics apart from those obtained during the age
of classical computing may apply.
The focus in this blog post is the historical evidence on
employment performance in three countries at the forefront of technological
change over the last 150 years: The United Kingdom (Figure 1), Canada (Figure
2), and the United States (Figure 3)[See note at end of post for data sources].
The United Kingdom’s experience as the first industrial nation revealed
increases in both employment and the labour force as technological change both
created and destroyed jobs but with substantial net job creation. Indeed, using census records on employment in
England and Wales since 1871 and Labour Force Survey Data from 1992, Stewart,
De, and Cole (2015) show declines in occupations such as agricultural
labourers, washers, launderers, telephonists, and telegraph operators both in
absolute numbers and as a share of employment.
Meanwhile, these declines were accompanied by increases in other
occupations such as accountants, bar staff, hairdressers, and other services. Overall,
employment in the United Kingdom has trended steadily upwards since the mid
19th century irrespective of massive technological change as Figure 1
illustrates.
The picture is similar for Canada, as illustrated in Figure
2. Between 1851 and 2021, in tandem
with a population that grew from 2.4 to 38.3 million – a 16-fold increase – estimates
of the Canadian labour force show growth from 762,000 to 20 million – a 26-fold
increase in size. Employment data is
available from 1891, and over the period 1891 to 2021, employment in Canada
grew from 1.6 to 18.0 million – a 11-fold increase – while the labour force
over the same span also increased from 1.7 to 20 million – an approximately
12-fold increase. The slowdown after
2017 in terms of labour force and employment can be attributed to the impact of
the pandemic, and as the chart illustrates, there was recovery by 2022. Evidence for the United States parallels that
of the United Kingdom and Canada with respect to employment as illustrated in
Figure 3. Again, from 1900 to 2022 – ostensibly a period of great technological
change – total employment in the United States expanded six-fold while the
population grew four-fold.
So, why all the anxiety about technological change? Well, despite the historical evidence to date,
there is a background foreboding that much like mutual fund returns, the past
may not be an indicator of the future if the onset of quantum information
technologies, AI and machine learning together somehow represent a
fundamentally different economic process that unlike the past will destroy more
jobs than it creates. However, at this point these new technologies are still
in their infancy and there is really no reason at this stage to expect the
future to be that much different than the past, unless the relationship between
technological change and its contribution to the economy itself shifts in some
unforeseen fashion.
Sources/References
Data Sources for Figures 1-3: UK [ Data Source: A millennium of macroeconomic
data for the UK, The Bank of England's collection of historical macroeconomic
and financial statistics, Volume 3.1.], Canada: [Denton and Ostry (1961);
Historical Statistics of Canada; Statistics Canada Catalogue 71-201 Annual,
1973 & 1989, Historical labour force statistics, actual data, seasonal
factors, seasonally adjusted data; Statistics Canada, v102029212 Canada
[11124], Labour force (Persons), Total, all occupations; Both sexes v102029368
Canada [11124], Employment (Persons), Total, all occupations, Both sexes];
USA:[ Historical Statistics of the United States (HSUS) from 1900 to 1945 and
that of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) from 1948 to 2023.]
Stewart. I., D. De, and A. Cole (2015) Technology and
People: The great job-creating machine. Deloitte.
