Well, here is some interesting data on median donations by Ontario CMA in 2015 available from Statistics Canada (Table 111-0001). It is of course useful as an index of local generosity to charitable causes. Please note it is not a complete index as it only takes into account the value of donations and charitable activity also can involve a great deal of donated volunteer time - which this measure does not capture. Nevertheless, Figure 1 is somewhat disappointing when one looks at the performance of northern Ontario.
The median donation ranges from a high of $470 for Wellington Centre to a low of $140 dollars for Petawawa. With the exception of Elliot Lake which is in the middle of the distribution, northern Ontario cities are all clustered in the bottom third. Elliot Lake comes in at $340 followed by Kenora at $290, North Bay at $270 and Thunder Bay at $260. Timmins and the Sault are at the bottom of the northern median donation list at $160 and $210 respectively. It is a somewhat disappointing performance given our self-perception as being very community minded.
Of course, a possible explanation could be that the value of donations is a reflection of lower incomes in the North. However, as my last post demonstrated, income growth has been pretty robust in northern Ontario. Moreover, as Figure 2 shows, the median income of donors across Ontario CMAs shows that the northern Ontario CMAs are more dispersed across the income range. Donor incomes in northern Ontario CMAs are not clustered at the bottom. Elliot Lake, is at the bottom of the donor income plot and yet is the most generous northern Ontario CMA whereas Sudbury which has the highest median donor income is near the bottom when it comes to median donation values.
Needless to say, I am not too despondent over this. While all I can offer is anecdotal evidence, I think that donors in northern communities probably are much more giving of their time than money when it comes to charitable activity. Thunder Bay for example has numerous community events - most recently the 2017 18U World Cup - that are only possible via the selfless activity of numerous volunteers. Then there are the activities of food banks and other facilities that also rely heavily on donated time. So, in the end, when it comes to charity, I think money is not everything. Still, it would be nice to see those numbers go up. If Elliot Lake can do it, why not everyone else.
Northern Economist 2.0
Wednesday 20 September 2017
Wednesday 13 September 2017
Household Incomes in Ontario: Northern Exceptionalism
Statistics Canada has released the figures for median household income in Canada from the 2016 census providing comparisons for the period 2005 to 2015. The median total income of Canadian households rose from $63,457 in 2005 to reach $70,336 in 2015 - an increase of 10.8 percent. This growth was led by the resource intensive provinces and Ontario appears to have done particularly poorly- it had the lowest growth rate at 3.8 percent. Even Quebec did better at 8.9 percent - the second lowest growth rate. Almost every metropolitan area in Ontario saw growth below the Canadian average - with an interesting set of exceptions.
What is interesting in these numbers given Ontario's poor performance is the performance of the major northern Ontario cities, what I like to term the N-5: Thunder Bay, Timmins, Greater Sudbury, Sault Ste. Marie and North Bay. Incomes in three of these five cities all grew above the Canadian average - a much better batting average than the rest of the province. Moreover, all five of these cities grew above the Ontario average.
Figure 1
Of course, median household incomes in these northern Ontario cities are still below the Ontario median (See Figure 1) but over the course of a decade they appear to have closed the gap substantially despite the forest sector crisis and other assorted slings and arrows. Indeed, as Figure 2 shows that median household incomes in Timmins, Sudbury and North Bay all grew above the Canadian and Ontario average. Thunder Bay and the Sault did not top the national performance but they still topped the provincial performance.
Figure 2
If you are wondering about income growth in some other Ontario cities, for the record: Toronto (4%), Hamilton (5.3%), Ottawa (4.4%), London (-2.1%), Windsor (-6.4%). The urban north of the province appears to have done surprisingly well in the median household income sweepstakes and this probably represents another factor in why house prices to date have been as robust as they have been in places like Thunder Bay and Sudbury.
What is interesting in these numbers given Ontario's poor performance is the performance of the major northern Ontario cities, what I like to term the N-5: Thunder Bay, Timmins, Greater Sudbury, Sault Ste. Marie and North Bay. Incomes in three of these five cities all grew above the Canadian average - a much better batting average than the rest of the province. Moreover, all five of these cities grew above the Ontario average.
Figure 1
Of course, median household incomes in these northern Ontario cities are still below the Ontario median (See Figure 1) but over the course of a decade they appear to have closed the gap substantially despite the forest sector crisis and other assorted slings and arrows. Indeed, as Figure 2 shows that median household incomes in Timmins, Sudbury and North Bay all grew above the Canadian and Ontario average. Thunder Bay and the Sault did not top the national performance but they still topped the provincial performance.
Figure 2
If you are wondering about income growth in some other Ontario cities, for the record: Toronto (4%), Hamilton (5.3%), Ottawa (4.4%), London (-2.1%), Windsor (-6.4%). The urban north of the province appears to have done surprisingly well in the median household income sweepstakes and this probably represents another factor in why house prices to date have been as robust as they have been in places like Thunder Bay and Sudbury.
Thunder Bay Housing Coming Down
A report by Moody's Analytics reported in today's Globe and Mail says that higher interest rates, newer mortgage-lending rules and declining affordability are together going to put a damper on the growth of Canadian housing prices. Indeed, the price of single family homes in Canada is forecast to only grow at 1.3 percent annually over the next five years but there will be considerable variation across the country. Larger urban centers with growing populations particularly in southern Ontario will do better while many other cities will see declines.
As the accompanying graph constructed from data provided in the Globe article shows (July forecast), Toronto and Hamilton are still expected to lead the pack at growth rates of 7.7 and 5.8 percent respectively but after that the growth rates drop off and indeed move into negative territory.
Thunder Bay is expected to see annualized declines of 5.4 percent. Reasons for this are falling median incomes, slow population growth rates and slow rates of household formation - along of course with the fact that interest rates are on the way up. Other housing price reports on the Moody site also show that Greater Sudbury is forecast to have price declines. The May 2017 report for example (the April forecast) noted Sudbury prices over the next five years would decline by 1.2 percent annually. The same report also had Thunder Bay declining by 1.2 percent annually with a substantial revision now in the new report. What has changed over the last few months? Interest rates.
I think interest rates are really the big factor here given that Thunder Bay's housing prices managed to double over the last 10-15 years despite the weak economy and flat population growth. Not quite the growth of the GTA but still quite remarkable given the local demographics and economic performance.
As the accompanying graph constructed from data provided in the Globe article shows (July forecast), Toronto and Hamilton are still expected to lead the pack at growth rates of 7.7 and 5.8 percent respectively but after that the growth rates drop off and indeed move into negative territory.
Thunder Bay is expected to see annualized declines of 5.4 percent. Reasons for this are falling median incomes, slow population growth rates and slow rates of household formation - along of course with the fact that interest rates are on the way up. Other housing price reports on the Moody site also show that Greater Sudbury is forecast to have price declines. The May 2017 report for example (the April forecast) noted Sudbury prices over the next five years would decline by 1.2 percent annually. The same report also had Thunder Bay declining by 1.2 percent annually with a substantial revision now in the new report. What has changed over the last few months? Interest rates.
I think interest rates are really the big factor here given that Thunder Bay's housing prices managed to double over the last 10-15 years despite the weak economy and flat population growth. Not quite the growth of the GTA but still quite remarkable given the local demographics and economic performance.
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