From a peak reached in the early 1990s, police reported
crimes rates in Canada have been on a downward trend.This is also the case for homicide rates, which have been on
a downward trend nationally since the early 1980s.There is of course variation from year to year in homicide
rates so some type of regression smoothing procedure is helpful in establishing
what the longer-term trends over time are. What quickly emerges from an examination of long-term trends
is that Thunder Bay followed national trends in homicide rates until the early
21st century but that since then there has been a substantial
divergence.It is not a “northern
Ontario” thing because the Greater Sudbury CMA tracks provincial and national
homicide rates quite closely.
Figure 1 presents LOWESS Smoothed homicide rates for Canada
and major regions from 1981 to 2015. LOWESS is a particularly useful smoothing tool because it
helps deal with “outliers” – that is extreme observations that can often distort
averages taken over time. The data source is from Statistics Canada (Table 2530004 - Homicide survey, number and rates (per
100,000 population) of homicide victims, by census metropolitan area (CMA),
annually).Canada as a whole has
seen a steady decline in homicide rates going from smoothed values of 2.74 per
100,000 in 1981 to 1.51 by 2015 – a drop of 45 percent.This decline is a feature of the West,
Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada though Atlantic Canada sees a sight upturn
after 2006.In terms of regional
rankings, homicide rates are now the highest in the West, followed by Atlantic
Canada, then Ontario and finally Quebec.
It has been a slow start to spring across northern Ontario but temperatures are finally starting to warm up. Environment Canada says warmer weather is on its way. Here are a few of the stories of economic significance for northern Ontario that caught my attention over the last week or so.
Regarding the Ring of Fire, here is an op-ed by Heather Hall and Ken Coates that essentially makes the point that ultimately, the Ring of Fire will not proceed "without substantial, clear and significant indigenous engagement." In the end as any good economic historian knows, institutional arrangements are important.
Given this op-ed, selling yourself as a Ring of fire smelter location may be premature. I am also surprised that in this age of heightened sensibilities and sensitivities one is actually using the term 'smelter' and not something like "Value Added Mineral Processing and Community Economic Enhancement Facility".
Sadly, given the presence of the Premier in northern Ontario, there was no reaction in northern Ontario to this item (by yours truly) which Dominic Giroux on Twitter noted as a "blunt assessment". I think this provides support for a case for a government program to provide northern Ontario media organizations with research support as they are probably stretched for resources in pursuing stories. This is not that far-fetched given the unfortunate downsizing that has occurred over the years in local media that I am aware of.
When it comes to economic development, human capital is also important and of course education is a key component of any human capital strategy. Providing government services in northern Ontario is already a challenge given the low population density and geographic dispersion. Doing so in rural northern Ontario even more so.
Related to the motif of northern resentment and unhappiness, there was this interesting segment on TVO's agenda hosted by Steve Paikin. In the interview with former Ontario cabinet minister David Orazietti, the interesting point was made that despite the constant claims of alienation and under representation of northern Ontario interests at Queen's Park, on a per capita basis the north has more provincial cabinet ministers than Toronto. Of course, the related news item is the by-election in the Sault for David Orazietti's vacated seat.
And there is one final item and this again related to institutions and what can often be their indirect impact on business and the economy. In Thunder Bay we have the situation where the police chief has been placed on administrative suspension as a result of being charged with breach of trust and obstructing justice "stemming from allegations that he disclosed confidential information concerning Thunder Bay mayor Keith Hobbs." I must admit this one is quite puzzling to me and comes on the heels of other ratherodd stories involving the Mayor. Without really knowing what is going on here, one must nevertheless express disappointment at a situation involving relationships between the senior figures of Thunder Bay's municipal government that does not reflect very well in the national media on a community constantly trying to sell itself as a good place to do business. Coming at a time when Thunder Bay is also under scrutiny for its relations with indigenous people, one hopes that this matter is speedily resolved and Thunder Bay's leadership quickly moves on to dealing with better things.
Most of us are aware that Canadian
households have reached record levels of indebtedness over the last few
years.Household debt in Canada is now
over $2 trillion and household debt to disposable income ratios in Canada are
now at 170 percent.Less discussed is
what has happened to savings.While low
interest rates have been a factor in Canadians being able to carry
substantially larger debt burdens, they have also been a factor in reducing the
interest income from saving and as a result have led to a drop in the number of
savers.
The Bank of Canada rate dropped from 6
percent in 2000 to 0.75 percent in 2015.Over the same period, the total number of savers in Canada as reported
by Statistics Canada from data compiled from Income Tax returns (Table 1110036
- Canadian savers, by savers characteristics, annually) dropped from 4,808,930
to 3,356,840 – a decline of 30 percent.Over the same period, the median annual interest income of Canadians
fell from $400 to $230, a drop of 43 percent.