Homelessness in Ontario: Creative Solutions Needed, Not More Planning

 

Urban centres across Ontario and indeed all over Canada are experiencing a wave of homelessness as rents and home prices continue to rise.  The ranks of the homeless not only include those with mental illness with no family or support or urban foragers but working people who despite their incomes and work have been evicted as their units are renovated and higher rents charged and cannot find affordable housing. 

 

In Hamilton, tent encampments are dotting the city and as of December 2022 there are an estimated 1,509 people experiencing homelessness.  In Toronto a somewhat more dated estimates puts the number of homeless people at over 7,000. In Thunder Bay, well over 200 are experiencing homelessness while the number experiencing chronic homelessness is around 600 people.  Encampments in parks and assorted green space in or around downtown areas have become health hazards to the residents in the absence of proper sanitary facilities and in parks the prospect of taking children to play with tents nearby has become understandably  disconcerting for parent.

 

The approaches to dealing with the problem and the strong debates involved are highlighted by what is going on in Hamilton.  The most recent proposal has been a plan to “pitch” tiny homes on Strachan Street East just off the downtown area rather than have sanctioned encampments.  Hamilton councillors have given early support for this revised encampment protocol as a pilot with plans to ultimately set up six such sites that would accommodate about 160 people.   

 

There has of course been debate and opposition because quite frankly, the narrative around this process is misleading because you do not “pitch” a cabin, you erect or build one.  Once you physically build something, it is not temporary but likely to become permanent especially given the torpor and inertia that accompanies most government decision making these days at all three levels of government.  One only need visit other parts of the world to see what a poorly policed or implemented tiny homes program could devolve to: essentially urban shantytowns.

 

Of course, even if such a program is approved, one suspects that given the plethora of plans, regulations, and processes at assorted levels of government, it will take a long and expensive time to get anything done.  After all, Hamilton has been working on a housing and homelessness strategy of various sorts since 2004 and here we are 20 years later and we are still working on solving the problem. If one checks in on Hamilton Housing and Homelessness Action Plan, here is the progress:

 

    May 7, 2018: Housing and Homelessness Action Plan Update

    December 12, 2016: Council receives 2015 and 2016 Report to the Community

    June 24, 2015: Council receives 2014 Report to the Community

    December 9. 2013: Council endorsement of Phase Two

    June 11, 2012: Council endorsement of Phase One

    October 2010: Housing and Homelessness Planning Group was convened to provide guidance to staff in the development of the Housing and Homelessness Action Plan.

    2007: Council approved Everyone Has a Home: A Strategic Plan to Address Homelessness, Hamilton’s first comprehensive plan to address homelessness.

    2004: Council approved Keys to the Home: A Housing Strategy for Hamilton, first housing strategy for the city since amalgamation.

 

Planning as a substitute for action has become an affliction at all levels of government in Canada and Hamilton’s homeless action plan has probably been about as effective in dealing with homelessness as the myriad of northern Ontario economic development plans have been in jump starting the northern Ontario economy. And with three levels of government using federalism not as a cooperative apparatus to tailor programs to local needs but as an excuse for passing the buck, we are a long way from addressing homelessness and housing issues at a national level.

 

What to do? Honestly, there is no quick and easy solution, but solutions do require some creativity, a willingness to work together to solve problems and the will and capacity to move and get something done.  Sometimes that requires a crisis or natural disaster.  Case in point?  The Great Haileybury fire of 1922.  In the fall of 1922, a massive wildfire hit the town of Haileybury in northern Ontario and several surrounding communities killing 43 people and leaving thousands homeless just before the onset of a northern Ontario winter.  The solution, a quick and rapid improvisation that saw 87 streetcars from Toronto being sent up and fitted out with stoves and used as temporary accommodations.

 

Honestly, could such a solution work today?  One imagines that there a lot of retired VIA railcars, TTC streetcars and GO Transit cars lying about that could be repurposed and set up on some of the sites being proposed for permanent encampments or tiny home subdivisions.  Being streetcars rolled in and set up with sanitary facilities, heat, and air conditioning, they would look better than the myriad of tents or tiny cabins being proposed.  And being rail cars on wheels, one might be able to afford the illusion that they are indeed temporary even though all of us know they are going to be around for a long time.  However, being in built up urban areas, they might even be considered a little funky and eventually become part of the landscape in a more palatable way than tents willy-nilly and assorted mounds of garbage.

 

Mark my words, this is not a permanent solution nor should it be but in the absence of any real steps towards effective urban solutions, moving on a solution like this might be the best way to move forward in at least a limited fashion.

 

 

Recession Anyone?

 

Well, despite the talk of recession and rumours of recession in the wake of Bank Rate increases around the world, to date the economy not just in Canada and also the United States and indeed in many other countries, remains relatively robust.  At the same time, inflation is coming down.  The narrative is only slowly starting to shift to explanations of why the economy is doing so well with a myriad of possible stories, the most entertaining is that what we are having is a “vibecession” in which people continue to spend unabated while externalizing anxiety that a recession is coming with the anxiety being aided and abetted by constant media stories on why interest rate increases will eventually bring a recession.  Or perhaps we are experiencing some type of economic cognitive dissonance in which spending all that pandemic cash makes us uncomfortable, so we project fears of coming recession to assuage our consumer guilt.  Needless to say, interest rates are continuing to rise and at some point there may or may not be a recession.

 

In the interim, any indicator is useful.  Statistics Canada has put out experimental monthly business data (Table 33-10-0279-01) that estimates the total number of active businesses as well as openings and closures for Canada, the provinces and Census Metropolitan Areas.  If there are glimmers of recession in the air, one might expect to see a slowdown in the growth of total active businesses or even a decline is business closures exceed new openings.  Figures 1 and 2 provide charts of some this data (Total active businesses and business closures) for Canada, Ontario, and four Ontario cities (Thunder Bay and Sudbury are included as after all this is Northern Economist).  And, because of the size differences between national level and CMA data, an index is calculated and used with January 2022 numbers set to 100 for all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Both Canada and Ontario are above where they were in January of 2022 in terms of the total active number of businesses.  Since January 2023, there was a bit of a decline though it was followed by a rebound from March to April of 2023 where the data ends. This pattern appears to also mark Toronto and Hamilton. However, Greater Sudbury has seen a persistent decline since May of 2022 as did Thunder Bay though it was followed by a rebound after February 2023.  Nevertheless, all these geographic entities had more active businesses in April 2023 than at the start in January of 2022.  This suggests that overall, there have been on average more openings than closures. Figure 2 plots an index of business closings and again there are fluctuations but no discernible overall upward trend over the January 2022 to April 2023 period. If anything, there was a rise in business closures from about June 2022 to October 2022 and then a decline in business closures from about October of 2022 to January 2023 with a reversal since. 

 

The Bank of Canada began its current tightening cycle in March of 2022 and within a few months the number of closures began to rise but that was soon reversed.  Overall, there have been healthy amounts of new businesses created that have countered closures explaining why overall, the number of active businesses are up.  This data suggests that any recession if at all is still down the road.  Or, the soft landing that was envisioned is what has been engineered.

Thunder Bay Crime, Policing and Population: An Update

 

Statistics Canada has released the police-reported crime statistics in Canada for 2022 and police-reported crime in Canada, as measured by the Crime Severity Index (CSI), increased for the second consecutive year, up 4% in 2022.  The CSI considers both the volume and the severity of crime. The police-reported national crime rate—a measure of the volume of crime—increased by 5% from 2021 to 2022, up to 5,668 incidents per 100,000 population. However, like the CSI, the crime rate in 2022 (-4%) was lower than in 2019.

 

Figures 1 and 2 provide the 2022 CSI and Crime Rate Per 100,000 population for Canada 35 CMAs and ranks them from highest to lowest.  Crime Severity was highest in Winnipeg, followed by Kelowna and Lethbridge while in terms of crime rates, Kelowna topped the ranking followed by Lethbridge and then Winnipeg.  In terms of crime severity, Thunder Bay ranked 7^th highest of the 35 CMAs whereas in terms of crime incidents per 100,000, Thunder Bay dropped to 10^th spot.  For those interested in a northern Ontario comparison, Thunder Bay's crime severity and crime rate exceeds  Greater Sudbury.

 

 

 

 

In the case of Thunder Bay, to provide some additional time series perspective, Figure 3 plots both crime severity and the number of police officers per 100,000 population from 2000 to 2022. Crime Severity has fluctuated somewhat over time though it has been on an upward trend since 2015 but remains below the peak year of 2009 when it reached nearly 115. Between 2015 and 2022, Crime Severity in Thunder Bay grew by 27 percent but if one looks at the period 2000 to 2022, then there has been a decline in crime severity of just over two percent.  

 

 

 

Another metric – not shown in any charts here – is the crime rate and the total number of crime incidents.  In 2000, the total number of total crime violations in Thunder Bay was 10,869 whereas by 2021 it had fallen to 8,117 – a decline of about 25 percent. Over the same period, the number of total crimes per 100,000 fell from 9084 to 6940 – a drop of 24 percent. If one takes the 2022 numbers in consideration, the rate appears to have declined further to 5842.

 

It is always interesting to compare the crime time series numbers to police resource numbers.  Policing numbers per 100,000 have trended upward throughout the period going from 173 officers per 100,000 population in 2000 and reaching 213 in 2022.  This represents an increase in per capita policing resources of 23 percent.  It should be noted that over the same period, the total number of civilian employees grew from 95 to 119 while the total number of officers grew from 207 to 249 – total increases of 25 and 20 percent respectively. 

 

Putting these increases into perspective, it helps to have some population numbers.  Over the same period, the population of Thunder Bay, Municipal as reported in these crime statistics by Statistics Canada fell from 119,657 to 116,968 – a decline of 2.2 percent. This is certainly a different number than one has seen in the past referring to either the CMA or the municipal population. While this is a larger number than the 2021 census city of Thunder Bay population figure of 108,843, it is also smaller than the CMA census population of 123,258.  One city, many population statistics.

 

So, that is a brief overview of the numbers. Make of them what you wish.  One imagines that personal and individual experience with crime never mind population growth in Thunder Bay may vary depending on your location or socioeconomic status.

Population, Growth and Statistics in Thunder Bay

 

The City of Thunder Bay’s population according to the Census of Canada has remained essentially the same since the 1970s with some minor growth in the surrounding CMA.  This has occurred while elsewhere in the province and country, population soars.  Indeed, the city’s growth rate between July 2021 and July 2022 while positive at 0.2 percent, was actually the lowest in Canada for cities with populations above 100,000. 

 

With every census, there are the usual concerns with stagnation but despite the census evidence, there are actually two narratives when it comes to population in Thunder Bay.  One story is that given the city’s growth rate in population, there is a lack of economic growth and stagnation is a real concern given that population is attracted to economic opportunity.  When combined with the fact that the city and region appear to be aging faster than the rest of the province, the prospects for a more dynamic future look increasingly precarious.  However, the other story often voiced by local officals is that Thunder Bay’s population is much larger than the official population figures indicate.  In this narrative, Thunder Bay is an attractor for a transient regional population that comes in and makes use of its services. 

 

Even the current Mayor of Thunder Bay recently was quoted asserting that “he believes there are 15 per cent more people than recorded by Statistics Canada, adding that’s where a lot of the city’s financial problems come from, having to provide services for people that aren’t officially on the books, and hence aren’t counted when senior levels of government hand out transfer payments.” More directly, he said: ““We’ll ride with 120,000, but the police know, the hospitals know, the health-care system knows, and even the mercantile areas know it’s more than that. There’s more people around and if you spent one hour at city hall you’d know there are a lot more people wandering around the city than actually meet any census.” With an offical City population of 108,843 and a CMA/Metro population of 123,258, the mayor’s assertion suggests that Thunder Bay’s actual population range from City to CMA is from about 125,000 to 142,000.

 

Of course, such assertions would be useful if accompanied by time series data from police, paramedic, and hospital services though even that of itself is not sufficient.  After all, it is possible to have population growth flat, but usage rates rise.  With more use per capita, even with flat population growth, one could see paramedic or police services rise in total incidents.  Indeed, rising usage for hospital and paramedic services could be a function of a larger transient population or it could also be the result of an aging population.  However, without more detailed data, simply saying “if you spent one hour at city hall you’d know there are a lot more people wandering around the city than actually meet any census” is probably not going to cut it with the city’s governmental transfer partners. 

 

 

 

In the search for other approaches to the numbers, another way at looking at growth in a city is through federal tax filer data collected by the Canada Revenue Agency and disseminated through Statistics Canada.   The accompanying Figure 1 presents an index for the number of tax filers and their dependents for the period 2000 to 2021 for Ontario as a whole and a number of its major cities with the year 2000 set at a value of 100.  Over this period, the total number of tax filers in Ontario rose from 11,331,080 to 14,248,730 which when normalized with 2000 equal to 100 means Ontario went from 100 to 125.7 for an increase of 25.7 percent (See figure 2).  Over the same period, Thunder Bay went from 120,140 to 119,180 which when normalized goes from 100 to 99.2 for a decrease of -0.8 percent.  Indeed, of the cities on these two charts, Thunder Bay is the only one that sees a decrease in the number of total tax filers and dependents.

 

 

 

Does this mean that the mayor is wrong? Not necessarily. Given that the assertion is that these additional users of services are transient or temporary population, there is no reason that they would be registered with a residential address in Thunder Bay for income tax purposes.  All these figures do is confirm the official narrative from the Census and Statistics Canada that Thunder Bay’s population is essentially flat and has been for quite some time.  If there are indeed a large number of unofficial residents moving to and from the city using its services, then Thunder Bay needs to do a better job of presenting a credible statistical method of capturing that population.

A Primer for Premiers: Some Health System Metrics

 Canada's Premiers are meeting in Winnipeg July 10-12 and along with all the photo opps and media availability sessions, they are also expected to have some discussions on a number of pressing policy concerns including how to spend the forthcoming increases in federal transfers.  Given that none of them have yet submitted plans on the targets and timelines they will use to convert the increased funding into health system improvement outcomes, one suspects it will be some time before the funding increases have any impact. 

 

 

 

Of course, it remains that simply increasing funding alone will not necessarily solve the current chaos as emergency rooms close down during busy summer months, the rosters of people without family physicians grows as physicians retire and nursing shortages lead to delayed or postponed procedures.  As the premiers know, Canada already is one of the biggest spenders in the OECD on health and well above the OECD average both as a share of its economy (See figure 1) and in dollars per capita (See figure 2) .  Yet, as figures 3 and 4 illustrate, this larger amount of spending does not translate into more physicians per capita or more hospital beds per capita.  

 

 

Now these simple types of comparisons can be critiqued on a number of levels.  After all, while we have fewer physicians per capita, our nurses per capita match the OECD average.  Moreover, Canada's physician to population ratio has been rising in recent years and it has been noted that simple physician to population ratios are not always helpful.  Physicians in many other countries sometimes perform a broader range of functions than physicians in Canada which means having more of them per capita is not always an indicator of greater availability.  Yet, if you look at physician consultations per capita, in 2019 - just before the pandemic - Canada stood at 6.6 while the OECD average was 7.0.  

Canadian physician consultations per capita a decade ago were above the OECD average meaning that with fewer physicians per capita and higher consultations, Canadian physicians were seeing more patients than their international counterparts.  That appears to no longer be the case. The case loads of the average Canadian physician have been declining and part of that is a change in practice culture and the arrival of the desire for better work-life balance.  And there are other indicators where Canada does not perform as well - we are below the OECD average on diagnostics such as MRI and CT scans per million population. 

So, throw in the chaos of the pandemic era, and we can see that the current problems are a function both of long term trends in Canadian health system resources, practices and staffing combined with the short-term shock of the pandemic's disruptions.   We are already spending a lot more money than many other countries but we are definitely seeing less health service outcomes with that money.  The per capita statistics also in the Canadian case reflect the fact that there are a lot more people in Canada given recent population growth which when combined with an aging population has certainly resulted in demand side increases too.  The Premiers face quite the challenge.  They will have more money to spend and do need to spend more to deal with the short term supply shortfalls.  At the same time, they need to set up mechanisms to ensure that over the medium to long term, more money does not continue the recent trends of spending more and getting less.