NORTHERN ECONOMIST 2.0

Saturday, 8 October 2022

Thunder Bay's Mayoral Race: A Momentum Shift?

TBNewswatch has now done two online polls of the day asking respondents to indicate their preference for mayor. The August 20^th poll was at the start of the race just after nominations closed and they showed Ken Boshcoff out as the clear frontrunner with a majority of the votes cast (51.9 percent). In second place then was Peng You at 20.4 percent followed by Gary Mack at 17.3 percent. Going forward to October 8^th, as of approximately 12 noon there had been a total of 1,552 ballots cast and the results show that Ken Boshcoff still appears headed to take the mayor’s chair with about 40 percent of the vote. In second place is now Gary Mack with about 25 percent of the vote followed by Peng You at 24 percent. Clint Harris and Robert Szczepanski come in next at 6.6 and 4.5 percent respectively. These results are summarized in Figure 1 and the results for the October 8^th poll may change slightly as they were not yet final but after over 20 hours of online responding one suspects they will not change a great deal.

In terms of what has transpired, the clear majority of respondents in support of Ken Boshcoff at the dawn of the race has eroded somewhat as the campaign as progressed but he is still poised to take the mayor’s chair given the ground that has to be covered by the next two closest candidates – Mack and You. Moreover, the fact is that they appear pretty evenly balanced in terms of support. This is only an online poll with all of its attendant flaws and the only poll that counts is of course on election day but the two strongest candidates aside from Ken Boshcoff appear to have evenly split their support. However, there is an additional dynamic and that is illustrated in Figure 2.

In terms of the change percentage point share in candidate shares, the momentum since August 20^th appears to be in the Mack camp as his share has grown by 7.6 percentage points. The You support has nevertheless grown by 4 percent while Szczepanski has increased by 1.5 percent. This growth appears to have been accompanied by a shift away from both Harris and Boshcoff with the later seeing the greatest percentage point decline.

There are still nearly two weeks to go and it will be interesting to see if the mayoral race in Thunder Bay becomes a more competitive horse race with a photo finish.

Sunday, 2 October 2022

Saving Data: The Canadian Regional Historical Wealth Microdata Collection

As an economic historian, much of my work involved the collection and analysis of individual level and regional wealth data from late 19^th and early 20^th century central Canada. This work began in the 1980s with my thesis on wealth in Wentworth County under Peter George at McMaster and became a long term career project that used probate and census data to look at the determinants of Canadian wealth holding as well as its distribution. After 30 years, the responsible thing to do was to try and find a home for the data and in this regard I am delighted to announce that after conversations with Sara Janes at the Lakehead University Library Archives, a home has been found for the data collection and it has migrated so to speak. While the full electronic access to the data files is still in progress, the collection now has an entry point. A fuller description of the data set is available at the Archives site.

The data in the Canadian Regional Historical Micro Data Collection consists of over 12,000 probated decedents in Ontario and Manitoba for the period spanning approximately 1870 to 1930. In terms of the components housed at the Lakehead University Library and Archives, there are:

1) Canadian Historical Regional Micro-Data Collection: Survey Sheets: Approximately 12,000 estate files recorded on 3 to 5-page survey sheets (8” by 11”) comprising approximately 25 linear feet of material.

2) Canadian Historical Regional Micro-Data Collection: E-Files: 11 sets of e-files in excel format with accompanying coding information, approximately 30 MB of data.

3) Canadian Historical Regional Micro-Data Collection: Microfilm Resources: Several boxes of microfilm of estate files for Ontario in 1892 and 1902 and the Thunder Bay District, 1885 to 1930. Note that these will become part of the Northern Studies Resource Centre collection of the Paterson Library.

The work involving data collection and research has occurred over more than 30 years starting in the late 1980s with thesis research for a PhD in Economics at McMaster University, Hamilton and then occupying the bulk of an academic career at Lakehead University. Along with the SSHRC Doctoral Fellowship that funded the PhD (1986-1990) and the collection of the original Wentworth County estate files, there were three additional SSHRC Standard Research Grants (1991-94; 1999-02 and 2007-10) which helped put together the rest of the data.

The historical probate wealth micro data was collected for four regional areas: they are Wentworth County, Ontario (1872-1927), Thunder Bay District, Ontario (1885-1927), Ontario (1892, 1902) and Manitoba (1873-1927). Along with over 12,000 estate files collected in hard copy survey sheets which are now housed in the Lakehead University Archives, there are electronic data sets that have been generated that will eventually be available through hyperlinks through the provincial Permafrost digital data preservation system. Much of the wealth and asset information as well as personal information on the survey sheets has been placed in Excel spread sheets. Variables include gender, occupation age at death, wealth, portfolio composition, religious affiliation, birthplace, etc…However, there was substantial anecdotal and personal information taken down as well as details on bequests and estate division that was never coded and inputted and is still available in the paper-based survey forms. There is still research that can be done by coding and inputting the estate division details and subsequently analyzing it. While some preliminary work was done with Wentworth County in this regard and available for Wentworth County 1872 to 1892, funding for this last stage never materialized and remains undiscovered country. These decedents are also a potential resource for anyone doing genealogical research.

So, this is a preliminary message. When the data links are fully up and running, I will do another post. Until then, if there are questions about accessing the collection including the electronic data in advance of full hyperlink access, they can be directed to Sara Janes at the Lakehead University Archives [sjanes1@lakeheadu.ca (807) 343-8272]. Again, my thanks to the Lakehead University Archives for helping preserve this data for future research work.

Saturday, 24 September 2022

The Thunder Bay Police Service Saga: Regional Government by Default?

The expert panel appointed to advise the Thunder Bay Police Services Board has released an interim report with some recommended changes and reforms to the Thunder Bay Police Service and its oversight and operations. The interim report addresses three areas where action can be taken in advance of the final report and they include: (1) the selection of a new Chief of Police, (2) appointment of a new Board and, (3) labour relations. There are some key points made in this report that include more funding to strengthen civilian oversight, an arms-length Human Rights/Equity, Diversity Inclusion (EDI) Unit within the force, an expanded police services board with significant First Nations representation, and preference in the search for a new police chief to candidates who know Thunder Bay and who are Indigenous or racialized, as long as they meet other criteria. Indeed, when taken in its entirety, implementation will be an expensive proposition and can be expected to have a significant impact on the City of Thunder Bay’s budget.

In looking through the report, an implicit theme is that the Thunder Bay Police Service has to take a regional lens to its role and operation. Most interesting and significant in terms of a regional approach is the recommendation that a priority is to “Establish a formal nation-to-nation relationship with First Nations leaders to, among others, exchange information, consult on policy, address issues, and promote joint service delivery through a memorandum of understanding or formal agreement with policy and procedure (to ensure accountability and structure).”

For example, in selecting a new police chief there is an action recommendation to consult with, seek input from and participation of Fort William First Nation, Anishinabek Nation, Nishnawbe-Aski Nation, Matawa First Nations, and Grand Council Treaty #3 in the selection committee and hiring process. According to the interim report, the successful candidate must demonstrate “sound knowledge and appreciation of Thunder Bay as the regional hub of Northwestern Ontario” and understand “the presence and role of the region’s First Nations governments, and their relationship to Thunder Bay’s municipal government.”

In selecting board members, the interim report recommends that Ontario’s Solicitor General should “seek exemption to expand its membership to 7 members and remove the requirement of local residency due to the unique nature of Thunder Bay as the regional hub of Northwestern Ontario and the need for the Board to be reflective of the communities the Police Service serves” and “In an expanded seven-member Board, Indigenous representation should rise to three. While one member should be from Fort William First Nation, the additional one or two members should be drawn from First Nations based on considerations including use of Thunder Bay’s educational, medical, and other services by members of their communities, and their history of leadership and advocacy for changes to policing, such as the Coroner’s Seven Youths’ Inquest, implementation of recommendations from the Inquest and initiatives related to anti-racism.” Implementing this in terms of picking who gets to be on the board should prove to be an interesting political balancing act and a delicate nation-to-nation negotiation.

Looking forward, a move to a more regional approach in policing in the end will be a continuation of a trend over the last twenty-five years that can be best described as informal northwestern Ontario regional government by default. The Hardy Report on amalgamation for the Lakehead communities in the late 1960s made the case for a regional district government that was not acted on. During my past and more youthful forays on northern Ontario economic issues, the need for a regional approach not to mention regional government was something I opined on as the attached 1997 op-ed at the end of this article illustrates. In some ways the piece is as relevant now as it was then. Yet, what has come to pass over the subsequent decades is not a formal and structured approach to regional government but a piecemeal issue of the moment approach that in the end has created regional institutions but without direct accountability to a regional electorate except via an indirect process of voting for municipal representatives.

We have over the last twenty years acquired a regional hospital service, a district social services board, a district emergency service organization, and regional public utilities such as Synergy North and TBayTel largely driven by Thunder Bay but with regional input from other communities. Indigenous organizations have also established presence in Thunder Bay and Sioux lookout providing regional services to their members. We have achieved regional government by default but without any coordinating mechanism and without any over-arching effort to see if we are getting effective regional government or value for money. That might be fine if we were dealing with private economic endeavors and a competitive market that was creating regional businesses – after all, in the end, economic viability measures their performance and success - but taxpayer dollars are involved here.

With respect to the police service, giving it more of a regional mandate is in some sense at odds with its mandated purpose as Thunder Bay’s police service. Expecting municipal ratepayers to fund a regional mandate for policing as necessary, laudable, and noble as it might be is not what municipal ratepayers signed up for. Indeed, one might argue that what is needed here is twofold. Regional police services as well as appropriate regional funding from the participating affected indigenous and non-indigenous partners, as well as the provincial government.

One has to wonder if the ultimate result here given the documented shortcomings of the current police service, will not be reforming the Thunder Bay Police Service but a new Thunder Bay District Police Service that essentially absorbs the current police service into a new entity. Again, if this is the intention, it should be done explicitly rather than by stealth, so we all know what everyone has signed up for, what is expected in terms of financial contributions and with contributions from regional partners as well as the provincial government. Indeed, if what we are talking about is nation-to-nation relationships then there is also room for a federal role and contribution to this entire business.

This interim report represents a starting point for a much larger and very important conversation. Like all reports, it represents some great thoughts but, in the end, it will be more important to think everything through. It is remarkable that in the midst of a municipal election, this report has not been more front and center as an issue for the mayor and councilor positions.

Tuesday, 20 September 2022

Thunder Bay City Council 101: Councillor Quiz

We are now about a month away from municipal election night in Thunder Bay and the election signs have been popping up in clusters on numerous high-profile intersections across the city as both heralds and omens of the blessed event. There is potential for a fair degree of turnover in city council this year and that will have both costs and benefits not least will be the learning curve for new councillors as they acquire the information needed to perform effectively as councillors. As has been noted, new councillors will need to be quick learners, multi-talented, adaptable, patient, and open to criticism both warranted and unwarranted and take it all in with a smile. Indeed, adapting an old university joke to municipal government: City Councillors will need to take a lot of crap, the mayor will have to take a lot of crap and smile, while City Administrators must simply enjoy taking crap, given they have made a career out of it. To assist incoming councillors in becoming City Councillors, find below a short multiple-choice quiz featuring hypothetical and not so hypothetical situations of varying degrees of seriousness and whimsy designed to test your knowledge and judgement on the eve of taking office. If past experience is any indicator, returning councillors may also benefit from a refresher course.

1. You have spent two days with a prominent international business investor touring Thunder Bay showing them the local sights as well as parcels of municipal land available for sale and at the end of a successful visit, the businessperson announces intentions to invest. The businessman is very grateful to you for your time and proceeds to privately present you will an expensive gift item (eg. Diamonds, expensive Scotch, etc..) as a show of appreciation. You:

A. Accept the gift as this is a common practice in their home country and you do not wish to offend them.

B. You inspect the gift carefully for flaws in craftsmanship and file a report with the Canadian Manufacturer’s Association.

C. You thank the businessperson for their kind thoughts, respectfully decline the gift and note that you were simply doing your duty as an elected official.

D. You ask for gifts for all the members of council as well as the mayor because after all it has been a team effort.

E. Ask for cash in lieu of the item as economists have demonstrated that cash transfers are welfare enhancing.

F. Return the kind favour by offering to sell them a piece of land you personally own at a discount in lieu of buying the municipal property.

2. By how much do you think the municipal tax levy should go up for the 2023 budget year?

A. The rate of inflation.

B. By whatever amount the city manager recommends but divided by two.

C. The rate of inflation plus whatever percentage salary increase is going to go to senior city managers.

D. Whatever it takes.

E. Whatever the public lets you get away with.

F. The rate of inflation plus the rate of population growth and divided by one tenth of the square root of the combined weight of any randomly selected six members of city council.

3. Within two weeks of taking office, it is suddenly revealed that there is a major crisis in the finances of the City of Thunder Bay as a result of several successful lawsuits against the city as well as assorted unforeseen infrastructure and policing expenses, and the city is on the verge of bankruptcy. You:

A. Resign immediately.

B. Blame the previous three city councils and mayors and then resign.

C. Try to deflect attention from the crisis by proposing a motion to review street names with the aim of creating one name for streets currently with two or three separate names.

D. Ask the provincial government for a bailout.

E. Ask for a study from City Administration on the extent of the crisis and proposals to deal with it with a projected delivery date 12 months down the road.

F. Take to social media with a campaign arguing that municipal financial problems are fake news.

4. There has been talk of reforming Thunder Bay city council as to the size of city council as well as whether there should be Ward and At-Large Councillors. City council should be reformed as follows:

A. 8 Ward councillors plus a mayor.

B. 8 At-Large councillors plus a mayor.

C. 4 Ward councillors, 4 At-Large Councillors plus a mayor and vice-mayor.

D. 4 large councillors, 4 small councillors plus a large mayor and a small vice Mayor.

E. The Status Quo (7 ward councillors, 5 At-large plus a mayor)

F. Modified Status Quo (6 ward councillors, 6 At Large plus an invitation to Prince Andrew to be our mayor for life).

G. Hereditary Ward Councillors with formal titles (eg. Earl of Current River or Duke of Westfort) and the line of succession being the offspring or designate of current councillors starting, of course with the council as elected on October 24^th.

5. What are the most important things to understand about attending a City Council meeting as a municipal councillor?

A. The distinction between a balance sheet, a revenue statement, an expenditure statement, capital budget, operating budget, and slush fund, but not necessarily in that order.

B. When it comes to meeting length, time is money, and that long meetings must mean the participants have an abundance of both.

C. Robert’s Rules of Order and Codes of Conduct should be viewed as mere constraints on the creativity of councillors when it comes to interacting with one another and the public in solving issues.

D. Deputations and public input are simply a formality and should be taken as an opportunity for you to demonstrate your rhetorical skills in debate with presenters.

E. During televised meetings, it is important to turn off your microphone if muttering under your breath as well as make sure you do not fall asleep on camera.

F. In-camera meetings are not a photo opportunity but where the real business of council takes place.

Suggested Answers:

1. C though F may be tempting for some.

2. E as F while technically elegant might be beyond the math skills of the average councillor.

3. D or E are acceptable though C is an excellent diversionary tactic.

4. E is likely given the law of inertia though F or G might be good for tourism.

5. F with D and E acceptable choices for part marks.

Wednesday, 14 September 2022

Redesigning Representation in Northwestern Ontario

In the wake of every Canadian Census, there is a redistribution of populations and representations for federal elections and the current census is no exception. Much to the angst of many, the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission is recommending the Kenora riding be merged into Thunder Bay-Rainy River, creating a new and more widely spread-out Kenora-Thunder Bay-Rainy River. riding A new riding of Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk has also been proposed to represent Ontario’s far north while Thunder Bay-Superior North remains relatively unchanged under the proposal.

In the end, the ten federal northern Ontario ridings would go down to nine as Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing in the northeast is going to be eliminated and split between two neighbouring ridings. While its provincial representation for northern Ontario has been fixed for some time at eleven seats, there is fear that this decision may also be reversed down the road in the wake of these federal proposals thereby also weakening representation at the provincial level.

To provide a cohesive and distinct representative voice to the part of Ontario approximately north of 60 – which one thinks is part of the intent of this proposal - the result is somewhat lopsided ridings in Northwestern Ontario in terms of population. The Kenora-Thunder Bay-Rainy River riding seems to clock in at about 101,000, Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk at just over 36,000 and Thunder Bay-Superior north grows a bit to 99,035. Given the competing needs to ensure adequate representation that considers geographic spread, low population densities and population size, the Federal Electoral boundaries commission no doubt feels this is a suitable compromise to deal with the exceptional circumstances of the Far North of Ontario.

In the end, northern Ontario is the victim of a changing population distribution given that its population is growing more slowly than the rest of the country. Over the last decade, the North only grew about two percent - much of that in areas with more Indigenous population - while the rest of Ontario grew by well over 10 percent. The geographic size of two of these riding is such that one will not envy the MP elected to serve those constituents and current MPs have already brought this up. Indeed, how an MP can adequately be familiar with the needs of constituents spread across a riding the size of several European countries combined and effectively represent them is a valid concern. One will also probably not envy residents of Kenora or Dryden who will be put in a riding where Thunder Bay voters are the majority, and their issues and needs could potentially overwhelm the rest of the riding – more than they already do.

Indeed, a resolution by Fort Frances City Council reflects that concern as they are asking The Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission consider creating a separate, single urban riding encompassing the City of Thunder Bay. That is, the ask seems to be for a rural Thunder Bay Superior North Riding, a rural Thunder Bay-Rainy River Riding and an urban City of Thunder Bay riding – along with the new Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk one presumes. Thunder Bay City Council not surprisingly has responded to the proposal with a request for the status quo- that is to maintain current representation.

These proposals are both unlikely to fly with the Commission given that it means either no change or four ridings instead of the proposed three as the overall population of the entire region obviously is slated for three ridings. Thunder Bay voters and issues already dominate northwestern Ontario given that the city dominates the region with half of its population. One could easily make the case for only two ridings in Northwestern Ontario – Greater Thunder Bay stretching approximately in a rectangle from the Town of Nipigon, north along highway 11 to Macdiarmid, west to Ignace and then directly south to the US border taking Atikokan along –Greater Northwest Ontario - the rest of Northwestern Ontario including the new Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk riding. Indeed, if the region does not start to pick up the pace of economic development and population growth, in a decade the redistribution may indeed have to consider how to divide the Far North and the Northwest into just two ridings.

Thunder Bay itself has had the historical fortune of once being two cities and two riding with a substantial national economic role and that parlayed itself into a continuation of two ridings with expanded boundaries. It has therefore enjoyed representation out of proportion to population size and influence for decades but has not always wielded it very effectively. In the end, the last real heavyweight powerhouse Minister the region had at the federal level was C.D Howe and frankly given the general calibre of representation in recent decades it probably would not matter that much if Thunder Bay had two federal representatives or one. The best case for either the status quo or even four ridings in place of the current proposal is an effective marshaling of the case that really large geographic ridings in rural remote regions do not provide for effective representation of the needs of their constituents.