NORTHERN ECONOMIST 2.0

Wednesday, 9 August 2017

North's CMAs Sluggish When it Comes to Building Permits

The June 2017 building permit numbers from Statistics Canada are out today and they show that the total value of building permits rose in six provinces in June, led by Quebec and Manitoba. Meanwhile, permits were up in 14 of 36 census metropolitan areas (CMAs), led by Toronto, Montréal and Winnipeg with Hamilton reporting the largest decline in June (-60.0%).

The year to year results (June 2016 to June 2017) are shown in the accompanying figure for Canada's CMAs. All CMAs grew 24.3 percent. They range from a high of 172 percent for Halifax to a low of -81 percent for Moncton. As for Thunder Bay and Sudbury, they both show a negative performance with -2.7 percent for Thunder Bay and -4 percent for Greater Sudbury.

This building permit report comes in the wake of Conference Board Reports showing that these two cities have sluggish economies. However, with respect to building permits in Ontario they are not doing as badly as Hamilton, Windsor, Peterborough or St. Catharines. Another intriguing result is the Ottawa area where Ottawa/Gatineau shows annual growth of 13.7 percent but the Gatineau part is at -12.7 percent and the Ottawa part grew at 18.9 percent.

Friday, 4 August 2017

Living With Mom and Dad in Ontario: North & South 2016 Census Results

Statistics Canada released its 2016 Families, Households andMarital Status Results for the 2016 Census on August 2^nd and the results show that proportionally fewer households are composed of a 'mom, dad and kids' family and more people are either living alone, or as part of a couple without children, or as part of a multi-generational family. However, the other interesting result was that the proportion of adults aged 20 to 34 living with parents was 34.7 percent and has been increasing since 2001 when it was 30.6 percent. It is both a northern and southern Ontario phenomenon.

Economic News Around the North: August 3rd, 2017 Edition

Well, we are about to start a long weekend so why not stock up on some reading material related to the northern Ontario economy. To start off, a couple of big picture items with important implications both economically and politically.

Why Canada would be directly in the way of a North Korean nuclear war. National Post. August 3rd, 2017.

It turns out the world is round after all and the shortest route to the United States from North Korea is a curve and the curve takes North Korean missiles right over Canada on their way to destinations like New York or Denver. Looking at the map on this story carefully and one can see that the way to Chicago comes pretty close to Thunder Bay. One wonders if the North Koreans are aware that Thunder Bay (actually the twin Lakehead cities of Fort William and Port Arthur) once styled itself as the up and coming "Chicago of the North". Hopefully, the North Koreans have updated their intelligence and will not get Thunder Bay confused with Chicago - not that it will really matter much if we head off into global thermonuclear war. Where is President Trump's "Wall" when we really need it? I guess, we should all just move to Australia and hang out "On the Beach" with Nevil Shute.

Here in the north, we might want to use our enhanced political clout to get the Ontario government to take on North Korea. However, another story in the National Post is not too taken with the potential for two more northern Ontario riding.

Josh Dehaas: Ontario Liberals plans for two new ridings could violate the Charter and cost PCs the election, National Post, August 3rd, 2017.

In other news:

Thunder Bay Economy Sluggish-Conference Board of Canada. NetNewsLedger, August 3rd, 2017.

Personally, I think sluggish as a description of Thunder Bay's recent economic performance is a bit of an understatement. However, there does appear to be a fair amount of recent hotel, condo and apartment construction so obviously all things considered a lot of people want to live in Thunder Bay either permanently or temporarily despite the economy and the bad national publicity. The Economics Department at Lakehead just hired a new colleague so there is another addition to the local population (4 if you include family). Welcome back to Lakehead Karl & family!

New $15 million plant opens in Timmins. Sudbury Star, July 20, 2017.

It is heavy industry tied to the mining sector. A Timmins-based speciality plant called The Bucket Shop for the creation and manufacture of custom heavy equipment buckets for front-end loaders, scoop trams, excavators and even dozer blades for mining and construction industries. If you are in Timmins, put a visit to it on your bucket list.

Which way Sault Ste Marie? Northern Ontario Business. August 2nd, 2017.

Tom Dodds resigns from EDC. Sault Star, August 1st, 2017.

Well, things are economically uncertain in the Sault so it is time for a new strategic approach to economic development. According to the story: " Under the new organizational flowchart, the EDC will handle business retention, attraction and expansion; export opportunities, infrastructure development, and tourism. The Innovation Centre will oversee technology and innovation development, provide support for tech companies and start-ups, run the Community Geomatics Centre, and handle special projects like the lottery and gaming initiatives, energy projects, and agricultural opportunities. The municipality, itself, has set up a Community Development Fund and will steer the development of a strategic plan, handle community promotion, arts and culture development and work on the labour front to attract newcomers and bring home ex-pats."

As an economist, restructuring your economic development approach is more of a political gesture designed to convey concern for the economy as economic fundamentals for the Sault like much of the north remain the same. Still, I am not running for office and if I were I guess I would accept the need to look proactive.

If you are marketing your local economy, this is not good:

Sudbury lands 8th on list of bed-bug ridden cities. CBC Sudbury, August 1st, 2017.

Sault Ste. Marie came in 23rd out of 25. For once, Thunder Bay did not make this type of list.

Sudbury is getting a new events center (not in the downtown) and an economist even suggests how it will be paid for - by taxpayers.

Robinson: how we'll pay for the events centre. Sudbury Star. July 24th, 2017.

And as for the goings on in North Bay:

The hard numbers behind North Bay's population decline. BayToday.ca, August 2nd, 2017.

Well, that is all for this edition of Economic News Around the North. By the way, here is a great Pan Northern Link for news in general. Have a great long weekend!

Monday, 24 July 2017

Port Activity in Thunder Bay: A Retrospective

Thunder Bay's economic development hinged on its role as a transportation hub and its port was integral to that. From the early days of the grain trade to the development of the massive elevators that still mark its waterfront, Thunder Bay was vital to the development of the Canadian wheat economy. At its peak, over thirty grain elevators lined the waterfront in Thunder Bay and it was the largest grain port in the world. Thunder Bay's port underwent a decline in the 1980s as a result of shifts in global grain markets that persisted into the early 21st century but recent years have seen a resurgence of both the grain trade and the port. Indeed, there is new life in the entire St. Lawrence Seaway as a recent piece in the Globe and Mail noted that 2017 has seen a 20 percent increase in freight movement driven by iron ore and grain shipping.

Economic News Around the North: July 17th Edition

Well, a number of interesting items have come to my attention with respect to stories with an economic impact on northern Ontario. However, it is summer and peak travel season so I think I will keep things short and a bit more eclectic than usual, but with a tourism focus.

To start off, it would appear that tourism efforts in White River, Ontario may be all for naught given the reaction of the Chinese government to Winnie the Pooh. According to a BBC story, Winnie the Pooh is being blocked in China because images of Pooh are being used to represent China's President Xi Jinping in social commentary and criticism.

Winnie-the-Pooh may be the world's most beloved bear but apparently the love stops in Beijing where government censors cannot "bear" the images. White River has of course gone to great lengths to market its link to the character and everyone who has driven the highway has invariably stopped at the roadside statue of the Pooh.

No doubt, White River and its citizens will now join the list of subversive elements being monitored by the Chinese government and the Pooh Hometown Festival held the third week of August will acquire new cachet and international significance. Mark August 18th down in your travel calendar.

In other northern news stories with some relation to tourism and the economics of tourism and travel:

Thunder Bay's Hotel Boom shows no sign of slowing. Northern Ontario Business. July 12th, 2017.

Sudbury Casino would drain economy: report. Nugget.ca. June 27th, 2017.

Thunder Bay Tops Best Places to Live in Northern Ontario. Tbnewswatch. July 6th, 2017.

Well, given Thunder Bay's recent spate of bad news, the above ranking by MoneySense qualifies as good news though the story does qualify the ranking by noting that nevertheless, Thunder Bay barely makes the top 100 ranking only 97th overall (out of 400).

Summer is also the season of festivals and events and the economic impact of these festivals is important.

Few weeks before festival financial picture is clear: Mayor. Timmins Press.ca. July 5th, 2017.

Temiskaming Shores first-ever craft beer festival already sold out. CBC News Sudbury. July 11th, 2017.

Sturgeon Falls festival serves up Rock 'n Ribs. Nugget.ca. July 16th, 2017.

And if you are in Thunder Bay and at Hillcrest Park on Thursday evenings, there is always the MacGillivray Pipe Band which is celebrating its 100th anniversary this year.

And speaking of MacGillivray, what would William MacGillivray (b. 1764, d. 1825; Chief Director of the Northwest Company) who managed a commercial fur trade empire that extended A Mare usque ad Mare and after whom Fort William, the inland headquarters of the Northwest Company was named, think of this?

Have a great week!

NORTHERN ECONOMIST 2.0