NORTHERN ECONOMIST 2.0

Sunday 12 March 2017

Economic News Around the North: March 12th Edition

Here are some of the items that caught my interest this week in terms of some economic significance for northern Ontario as well as more general interest. A fair number of stories having to do with mining and the growing feeling that there is finally a resurgence in the mining sector. A story in this morning's Thunder Bay Chronicle Journal also mentioned that the Hemlo mine may have more life in it. However, it is important to separate this from the hype regarding the Ring of Fire which faces a number of other obstacles (see my previous post). As The Economist story referenced below noted: "The potential of “green” metals and minerals, which along with copper and cobalt include nickel, lithium and graphite, is adding to renewed excitement about investing in mining firms as they emerge from the wreckage of a $1trn splurge of over-investment during the China-led commodities supercycle, which began in the early 2000s. The most bullish argue that clean energy could be an even bigger source of demand than China has been in the past 15 years or so."

Ring of Fire, demand for critical elements driving future of Ontario mining. TimminsToday. March 8th, 2017.

The richest seam: Mining companies have dug themselves out of a hole. The Economist. March11th, 2017.

Let the mining cash flow-through : Exploration industry applauds one-year extension of tax credit program. Northern Ontario Business. March 7th, 2017.

In other news, like Thunder Bay, Sudbury is also going through debate and discussion on a new arena and like iterations of the debate in Thunder Bay, location is an issue. One view sees a new arena in the downtown area on the site of the current arena whereas another view wants it further afield. Interesting point is the proposed price tag which comes in at $80 million dollars (plus another $20 million for land) which is below what estimates ($114 million) for a new facility in Thunder Bay come in at. Sudbury is apparently also getting a new casino.

Will new arena plans dominate Sudbury's 2018 municipal election? CBC News Sudbury. March 8th, 2017.

Casino Operator will focus on Sudbury in May. Sudbury.com. March 11th, 2017.

It also turns out there is a bit of contention over OPG jobs which have been moved out of North Bay and partly to Timmins and Cornwall, Ontario. Jobs are a scarce commodity in the north and the broader public sector has become a pillar of most communities. When it comes to employment, I suppose the public sector giveth and the public sector taketh away.

20 OPG jobs coming to Timmins. TimminsToday. March 6th, 2017.

North Bay mayor: Wynne meddled with OPG announcement to ride good presswave. Sudbury.com. March 7th, 2017.

While North Bay is unhappy with the OPG development, it can take consolation in new dealings with Russia. I would imagine this will provide opportunities for travel.

Invest North Bay signs agreement with Russian investment group. Northern Ontario Business. March 8th, 2017.

And for those of you waiting for what will happen to redevelop HMV properties being vacated in the north, this item.

Sunrise Records announces expansion into Sault Ste. Marie. CBC News Sudbury. March 9th, 2017.

Thunder Bay is apparently not getting one yet. However, residents of Thunder Bay can take some solace in its new transit development courtesy of The Beaverton and more seriously the proposed infrastructure spending on its recreational facilities at local schools. Regarding the proposed infrastructure spending on track and field facilities, a student is quoted as saying: "It's an opportunity to play on a field like to play on a field like the people down in southern Ontario get to play (on)." I suppose we can all regard this development as helping to level the playing field with respect to southern Ontario at least with respect to sports, if not the use of the English language. However, it may be a long-term investment in health via exercise as other stories suggest the North may still not be a very healthy place relative to southern Ontario. See for example: Grim Data Emerging. The Chronicle Journal. March 12th, 2017. This story did not provide a regional breakdown on snowmobile deaths but the gender breakdown shows males are more likely to die in snowmobile accidents. On a per capita basis, there are probably more deaths in the north. In the week of February 22nd, there were five fatalities - one in Oro-Medonte, one in Thorton, two in Nipigon and one in Lindsay, Ontario.

Have a great week.

Friday 10 March 2017

The Wall

Thunder Bay is a relatively young city by historical standards and springing into life on the resource frontier and yearning for acceptance into the big leagues, it has always had a conflicted relationship with its architectural past. Thunder Bay seems to equate growth and development with being new and something new is always assumed to be better except of course when it comes to its politicians as the longevity of its political representation often illustrates. A great deal of Thunder Bay’s architectural heritage has been lost over the decades and invariably the arguments for tearing it down involve bringing in something new and supposedly cheaper.

The latest case involves the controversy over “The Wall”. Whereas Donald Trump’s “Wall” and the “The Wall” from Game of Thrones are both designed to keep people out, in Thunder Bay’s case, the wall along High Street was designed to keep things in place – it is a retaining wall. Looking at it, one might think it is a remnant built in medieval times and anchored a fortress of the Knights Templar but it was built in the 1940s along a section of High Street –once one of Port Arthur’s most exclusive neighborhoods.

Now, the wall is in need of repair and the majority of Thunder Bay city council has opted to replace it with a pre-cast concrete wall at a proposed cost of $2.4 million. My guess is that members of City council probably think this is a reasonable compromise. After all, it will still resemble an old wall and it will be new! Apparently, the members of the local Brick and Allied Craft Union who might be deemed to have some expertise with respect to bricks, stones and walls have suggested that the wall can be repaired and more cheaply than the $2.4 million earmarked for the replacement.

The attitude of City Council is probably best summarized by Mayor Hobbs, who stated in a letter to the editor that: “Historic Hadrian’s Wall is just a pile of crumbled stones now. What is modern today and not satisfactory to some will one day be historic. Roll with it folks.” Needless to say, the remark succinctly reflects the attitude that has been responsible for the razing of large sections of our history. And to be fair, it is an attitude that exists in other parts of urban Canada. Downtown Toronto has seen large swaths of its past similarly demolished because despite its size and self perceived sense of grandeur and sophistication, Toronto is really just a large version of Thunder Bay.

We are a young city and simply disposing of everything after 50 or 100 years means that in the end our city will always look like it has just been put together. Perhaps this is what the vast majority of people in Thunder Bay prefer because they do not feel that their past is as glamorous as that of Athens, Rome, Paris or London. Always having something new and shiny may give you something to boast about in the short run but it is short sighted and reflects a people who are fundamentally insecure about who and what they are. True, we cannot keep everything but we should at least make more of an effort to give the past a fighting chance.

Tuesday 7 March 2017

The Ring of Fire: Waiting for Ignition

There was an exchange in Ontario’s Legislature yesterday between MPP Norm Miller and Minister of Northern Development & Mines Bill Mauro regarding whether or not the government would “finally take a leadership role that will make the Ring of Fire a reality in Ontario?” The minister responded that mineral exploration activity in Ontario was climbing and progress was being made and more specifically asserted that: “there are three other mines under construction in the province. But they want to spend their time focusing on one. There’s one not too far from my home community of Thunder Bay called the New Gold project. Speaker, right now it’s under construction and 600 people are working on a construction site. When that mine is open for the next 10, 20 or 30 years of its life, there are going to be 450 people working in that mine.”

My belief is that any full-blown development of the Ring of Fire is many years away given the ongoing negotiations with First Nations, the immense cost of transportation infrastructure to access the Ring of Fire as well as the state of resource and commodity markets. However, it is worth examining whether there has been some progress in northern Ontario’s resource sector particularly when it comes to employment generation. Figures 1 and 2 present employment in northern Ontario’s resource extraction sector as measured by Statistics Canada series v91415810 (Northeast) and v91415829 (Northwest) on employment in Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Quarrying, Oil and Gas presented monthly from 3^rd month 2001 to 1^st month 2017.

The results in Figure 1 show that while there is some substantial fluctuation in resource extraction over time with some large upswings, when a linear trend is fitted to the data the long-term performance is quite flat. Indeed, average monthly employment was 21,500 in 2001 and 21,867 in 2016 – actually a 1.7 percent increase.

Figure 2 is more interesting because it separates the employment data up into northeast and northwest Ontario. While the northeast has trended up over time, the northwest has trended down. Average monthly resource extraction employment in the northeast was 12,470 in 2001 and 17,892 in 2016 – an increase of average monthly employment over time of about 44 percent. Meanwhile, the northwest has seen average monthly employment in resource extraction fall from 9,030 in 2001 to 3,975 in 2016 – a decline of 56 percent.

This is a remarkable difference in performance and likely represents the long-term impact of the forest sector crisis on the northwest – which was much more forestry intensive than the northeast – as well as the relative success of mining in the northeast relative to the northwest. While the northwest is seeing mining activity, it has not yet been on a sufficiently large enough scale to be the employment generator it is touted to be. I suppose we are still waiting for the Ring of Fire to be ignited.

Friday 3 March 2017

Economic News Around the North: March 3rd Edition

Well, this has been a busy week when it comes to news of economic significance for northern Ontario. Here are some of the items that caught my interest with some occasional commentary. Have a nice weekend!

Mining report card shows Ontario has room for improvement. Northern Ontario Business. February 28th, 2017.

According to this report out of the Fraser Institute, Ontario has dropped to 18th place globally as an attractive place to do business in a mining company survey and ranking.

Sault Locks to open on March 25. Northern Ontario Business. March 2nd, 2017.

Here's why health care funds for First Nations children aren't being spent. CBC News. March 3rd, 2017.

As is often the case, coordination and transactions costs are important elements in government and economic policy. First Nation's health is under federal jurisdiction while health care is a provincial responsibility and most health services are provided under provincial jurisdiction and therefore require travel to access if you live on a remote reserve - yet travel costs are often not covered by Health Canada.

Thunder Bay shipyard owners reveal their plans. Tbnewswatch. February 28th, 2017.

Apparently, Thunder Bay's shipyard facility - a facility with a long and storied history dating back to the early 20th century - will soon be up and running again and creating 25 full-time jobs.

New garbage limit excludes apartment buildings and business. Tbnewswatch. February 28th, 2017.

This is quite an interesting story relating to municipal public finances. The City of Thunder Bay is looking to save money by reducing the current limit of containers for residential garbage collection to two. Apparently, these changes along with others will eliminate one truck and two positions through attrition resulting in savings of $150,000. Needless to say, I am not particularly impressed with savings of $150,000 on a annual tax levy that is growing at over 3 percent a year and is approaching 200 million dollars. Reducing the garbage limit is something that has been done in many other cities but it has been accompanied by substantial expansion of convenient recycling options. This is not the case in Thunder Bay. However, what is even more interesting to me is that businesses and apartment buildings are being excluded from the limit. What this means is that residential ratepayers - who are now responsible for two-thirds of the tax levy - are seeing a 33 percent reduction in their service - while other ratepayers are seeing no change in their service level. This essentially means that residential ratepayers are going to further subsidize the garbage service collection of non-residential rate payers.

A brief history of mining in Greater Sudbury. Sudbury.com. March 2, 2017.

Check out the historical footage on the accompanying video.

Timmins economic outlook predicts population decrease. Timminspress.com, February 26, 2017.

Mayor unable to confirm possible OPG job losses. nugget.ca, March 1st, 2017.

And of course, what I think is the biggest story of the week given the energy intensive nature of northern Ontario economic activity...

Ontario cuts hydro bills by 17%, but ultimately it will cost ratepayers $1.4 billion a year more. Financial Post. March 2, 2017.

Essentially, Ontario electricity policy has become a case of either pay more now or pay more later with the distribution of payment over time a function of the temporal distance until the next election. Editorial reaction is not particularly positive. And, businesses are excluded from these hydro rate reductions apparently. Besides, I just received a letter from my local hydro utility dated March 2nd that has "re-adjusted" my monthly billing amount and in an odd coincidence my new monthly bill just went up 17 percent!

Wednesday 1 March 2017

Thunder Bay Airport Flying Higher

Thunder Bay Airport (YQT) has seen another year of growth hitting an all-time high for passenger numbers in 2016 by exceeding 800,000 passengers for the first time – 807,041 passengers to be exact. Some of the recent growth has come from the depreciation in the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar, which has attracted Americans away from airports in Duluth and Minneapolis. This is certainly a welcome development given that market size in northwestern Ontario is relatively stable given population trends. This is also a regional success story and according to the Thunder Bay International Airport Authority’s (TBIAA) own estimates generates an estimated $645 million dollars in GDP annually and creates 5000 jobs.

And of course, one does not need an economic impact study to see the importance of better air connections to Toronto with three airlines now competing for your business and offering on weekdays a total of 16 flights daily (Air Canada-6; Porter – 6; Westjet – 4). When one adds seasonal flights to tropical destinations as well as assorted regional airlines like Wasaya and Bearskin, It is indeed a golden age for air travel out of Thunder Bay.

Figure 1 plots the total number of passengers out of Thunder Bay airport and they show an increase from 503,428 in 1997 to 807,041 in 2016 – an increase of 60 percent. The average annual growth rate of passenger volume over this period has been 2.6 percent but there have been some fluctuations as Figure 2 illustrates.

The years 2002, 2005 and 2008 saw large dips in the growth rate as a result of the forest sector crisis and the onset of the Great Recession. There was a substantial rebound starting in 2009 but 2014 and 2015 also witnessed a flattening out of growth. As a result, the increase of 4.5 percent in 2016 is certainly quite welcome and hopefully represents the start of a new growth curve similar to what occurred after 2009. If this new phase of growth is being based on American travelers out of Minnesota taking advantage of a stronger US dollar then the exchange rate as well as border crossing issues will be crucial variables.