Northern Economist 2.0

Saturday, 1 April 2023

The Thunder Bay That Never Was

 

For all sad words of tongue and pen.

The saddest are these, “It might have been.”

John Greenleaf Whittier

 

As a result of its historic evolution from the twin cities of Fort William and Port Arthur, Thunder Bay has always had two former downtown cores that have been the focus of constant attempts at revitalization as well as a third commercial retail core in the former intercity area.  Three downtowns for a city of 125,000 is a lot of downtowns and yet the process of revitalization continues unabated.  The latest iterations are the recent local media stories dealing first with the downtown north core which being adjacent to the waterfront has emerged as the “entertainment” and “tourist” district.  A planned reconstruction of the downtown street here to emphasize walkability at a total of $13.2 million is now considerably above the original estimates.  And on the other side of town, there is another major streetscape project that is even more involved as it requires the complicated dismantling of the Victoriaville Mall which was placed on top of the major downtown intersection at Victoria and Syndicate.  This too will require many millions of dollars – about $11 million in one estimate - and is likely to see cost increases before we are done. 

 

The evolution of both downtowns has marked a return to more open street and pedestrian spaces that were blocked by the erection in the 1970s and early 80s by downtown street enclosing and blocking malls – Keskus on the north side and Victoriaville on the south. Keskus was finally demolished in 1999 to make way for downtown development centered on the arrival of the OLG Thunder Bay Charity Casino.  The result has been a more vibrant downtown area of shops and restaurants.  There is a similar expectation of this happening in the south side after the removal of Victoriaville Mall.  In the end, both downtowns along with the intercity area have evolved to some extent in a manner remarkably similar to the paths outlined in several Chronicle Journal newspaper articles and opeds authored in the late 1980s and early 1990s (CJ “Assign each city core its own specializations, Weds. July 26, 1989; CJ City at a Crossroads Series, November 16, 17 & 24, 1990).  That is “core specialization” with the north side downtown a “tourism-commercial” area given the presence of the harbour and waterfront, the south side downtown an “administrative-commercial” area given the concentration of city government there and intercity area as “commercial-industrial”. 

 

With some exceptions this is somewhat what has happened.  The former Port Arthur Downtown has a waterfront park and the arrival of the new Art Gallery will be an important addition to a critical mass of activities and functions making it a tourism and entertainment core.  The former Fort William downtown has City of Thunder Bay offices making it the administrative core.  Meanwhile, intercity has become the choice for new retail development.  At the same time, there is a lot of inconsistency given that the community auditorium is in the intercity area rather than in a spectacular waterfront setting, there is still a substantial city office and utility presence in the Whelan building in the north core and the main arena complex – the Fort William Gardens – remains in Fort William.  And then, a plethora of public buildings – Mini Queen’s Park, a new federal building, and the public health unit as well as assorted offices – went outside the Fort William Core to off of Arthur Street, the Balmoral Area and intercity.  However, given the long-established urban pattern and historical rivalry between the two twin cities, such is the weight of history and adjustment, and change takes a long time in Thunder Bay.  And there is the reality that private developers will develop land they own to realize a return and not necessarily to implement an urban planning vision.

 

Still, change has occurred but all of this change and development pales somewhat with the anticipated urban renewal and development plans of the 1960s.  Urban renewal gripped Ontario municipalities in the 1960s and the former cities of Port Arthur and Fort William commissioned consultants coordinated by engineering firm Proctor and Redfern to put together comprehensive studies and recommendations on their downtown cores.  They were comprehensive plans for renewal of the aging cores that included general land use, streets and traffic analysis, parking, pedestrian circulation, and transit that assumed that both downtowns would retain their comparative size and strength and remain centers of activity.  The Port Arthur Report was delivered in February of 1968 and the Fort William Report in April of 1969.  

 


 

 

The before and after illustrations are quite dramatic.  Port Arthur has plans for a dramatic waterfront park and civic centre and plaza, plans for streetscaping and a new senior complex.  Fort William’s downtown plan was even more ambitious with apartment blocks along Vickers Street, a new civic complex and riverfront park adjacent to the current city hall. The removal of the tracks along the Kam River was shown with a new thoroughfare and a set of high-rise riverfront dwellings along a park and boardwalk.  As for shopping, a new retail mall on land off of May Street to be called the Kam Center was proposed. As the accompanying illustrations show, the downtowns especially in Fort William were to be higher density areas and pedestrian intensive.  In many respects, the downtown areas would be “15 minute” cities with many services within walking distance of where people lived.

 


 


 

 

 


Alas, the reports presented an urban downtown picture that did not come to pass for a variety of reasons.  First, they of course were made immediately obsolete by the Amalgamation that fused the two cities together and the resulting politics created new initiatives that included two downtown malls as part of core revitalization.  Second, the plans failed to anticipate and realize the rise of the intercity area which after Amalgamation meant it was poised to be readily developed as the choice location given it was between the two population clusters.  Third, the 1970s much like the rest of the country saw a suburban housing boom that led to car intensive sprawl rather than infill in the downtown cores.  And finally, there was a massive overestimate of where Thunder Bay’s population was going given that the proposals assumed rather robust population growth for the Lakehead area that by 1986 was forecast under various assumptions to range anywhere from about 150,000 to 175,000.  Indeed, under such assumptions, Thunder Bay today would be well over 200,000 but such growth was not supported by the future evolution of either the city’s economy or its demographics

 

 


 

 


 

At the same time, the Port Arthur waterfront park envisioned in 1968 has in many respects come to pass though without the massive civic plaza.  And the rehabilitation of Arthur Street (now Red River Road) has occurred as well as the senior’s complex on Cumberland.  As for Fort William, the results are more disappointing in that there is no William McGillivray Boulevard skirting the Kam River and a riverfront park and boardwalk, or density high-rise housing along the riverfront or a new Civic centre adjacent to the current City Hall.  As for retail, the street blocking Victoriaville emerged in the late 1970s but not the proposed Kam Centre.  The urban reality that evolved reflected the needs and wants of the times as well as the political environment.  Still, it is fun to look back and wonder what might have been under different circumstances.  There may even be some ideas in those old plans worth exploring further.

Sunday, 20 September 2020

Dealing with Legacies: Victoriaville Edition

 

The 1960s and 1970s spawned the era of urban renewal and in Thunder Bay the result was two projects which left a legacy of costs and expenses and mixed results – the downtown urban renewal malls.  On the north side was Keskus and on the southside it was Victoriaville.  These were the legacy projects of their day designed to reverse the retail exodus from downtown and restore them to their former glory. 

 

The projects were slowly strangled by demographics as middle class residents moved to suburban areas and out of the downtown residential area, the rise of the intercity shopping area, cross-border shopping and most recently internet shopping.  Victoriaville in particular was also hurt by the malls locational position that blocked the corner of Victoria and Syndicate – akin to putting a shopping mall right on the intersection of Dundas and Yonge in Toronto or James and King in Hamilton.  Many cities had downtown urban renewal mall projects but Victoriaville was unique in how its design essentially killed traffic flow.

 

The two projects were also not helped by the loss of key anchor stores be it Eaton’s on the north side in the 1990s or Chapples on the south side during the recession and high interest rates of the early 1980s.  The north side mall eventually made way for a casino and downtown redevelopment centred around waterfront tourism.  The south side mall lingers on, given life support by the location of city government services and community functions.  However, its days appear to be numbered as Thunder Bay City council will debate its future Monday evening.

 

A report being discussed presents four redevelopment opportunities for the area:

 

Options 1A & 1B: Revitalize the existing infrastructure through retaining the existing building and either revitalizing the retail components or repurposing the existing space; (Cost: 1A-$34,860,000 or 1B-$15,360,000).

Option 2: Reconfigure the existing infrastructure, reopen Victoria Avenue, and maintain a portion of the existing structure on Syndicate Avenue south of Victoria Avenue; (Cost:$22,490,000) and,

Option 3: Remove the existing infrastructure, reopen Victoria Avenue, and re- energize public spaces on Syndicate Avenue.(Cost: $10,750,000).

 

Options 1A and 1B essentially will keep the mall on top of the intersection, option 2 reopens Victoria but maintains Syndicate as blocked while option 3 reopens Victoria Avenue and reopens Syndicate fully but to “reenergized public spaces” which it appears means some type of pedestrian traffic but not vehicles.  The report does not address the attached McKellar Mall – which is full of City offices for the most part and will continue on.

 

My guess is that there were be some support for 1B tomorrow night because City Councillors know that Victoriaville has to go but they still want to be seen as “constructive” and investing in the area’s activities and 1B allows them to both get rid of Victoriaville and pretend they are replacing it with another legacy.  Option 2 will probably have a bit more support from those who like option 1B because it costs only a ‘bit more” but allows for a more innovative looking “legacy.”  However, the best choice of the four is the last one – Option 3 and not because it is the cheapest but because it is the one that opens up the intersection the most though Syndicate is only going to be fully open as a pedestrian space.  The intersection is much like a key artery and the blockage needs to be removed if there is any hope of more robust activity emerging in the area. 

 

Even with the intersection opened up, the area is so far gone that it may likely never regain even a semblance of its former glory.  Indeed, there are now too many competing interests for retail and office activity in Thunder Bay’s dispersed urban pattern to expect that much more will happen in the former Fort William downtown aside from government and social services.  The best option is actually not there – Option 4: fully open up the intersection by removing the Syndicate Avenue parking ramp and making Syndicate a full street again just like that planned for the reopened Victoria.  This is an option given that the very end of the report argues that the parking ramp can be relocated. 

 

Given the current division of Council into fiscal realists and legacy investors, I would day that Option 3 will get five to six backers, while the remaining support will fracture between Option 1B and Option 2.  Having four choices does not provide for a clear voting and decision process so getting to a final choice is likely to be messy.  The only certainty is that cleaning up this legacy project is going to cost money no matter which way you look at it.  Given that Mayor Mauro is on the record as stating that the last couple of years have seen “reasonable” tax increases, get ready for the 2021 “unreasonable” increase.