Long-time standing MPP Michael Gravelle has announced that he is not seeking re-election in the riding of Thunder Bay-Superior North because of his ongoing health issues. Mr. Gravelle has held the riding since 1995 and the popular Mr. Gravelle has seen his victories be by large margins. One wishes him well with hopes for a speedy recovery. At the same time, his departure leaves a gap for the provincial Liberals locally as well as provincially given the rather small contingent of provincial liberals elected the last time around.
Thunder Bay voters historically at both the federal and provincial levels tend to elect Liberals and when they seek to punish them opt for an NDP candidate instead. Oddly enough, Thunder Bay voters are indeed very conservative voters in the sense they have been doing the same thing for a long time. Federally, the last elected Conservative was Robert J. Manion in Fort William though MP Joe Commuzzi went over to the Conservatives in 2008 after being elected as a Liberal. Provincially, the last Conservative elected in Thunder Bay appears to be Mickey Hennessy in the 1970s/early 1980s again on the Fort William side. At present, Liberals hold both ridings federally (now known as Thunder Bay-Atikokan and Thunder Bay Superior-North) and the NDP holds the former Fort William riding with Mr. Gravelle on the north side.
Provincially, polling suggests that the Conservatives under Doug Ford are poised to do quite well with the opposition parties not able to gain a lot of traction with their opposition to a government that has become both centrist and populist. The Liberals in Thunder Bay have yet to name a candidate on the south side with the expected candidate, the ever astute Bill Mauro deciding he would rather rule in hell than serve in heaven by taking his chances as Mayor. Now, there may be another vacuum on the north side. If candidates are not named soon, the provincial Liberals may be handing the ridings over to an NDP-Conservative race.
The provincial Conservatives appear to be paying the two ridings a fair amount of attention and there have been quite a few announcements which amount to substantial provincial dollars flowing into the region. They also have their candidates lined up. They already have Mayor of Conmee Kevin Holland running on the south side against NDP incumbent Judith-Monteith Farrell and Thunder Bay City Councillor Peng You on the north side. Councillor You is considered a high profile catch for the Conservatives given his high vote count as an at-large councilor nearly four years ago. At the same time, there has been some rumblings of dissatisfaction expressed about his performance on Thunder Bay City Council in terms of accomplishments to date.
So, what will happen? Given the tea leaves as to what may happen province-wide, there may not be a lot of local Liberals willing to put up with the public social abuse that passes for an election campaign these days. Even with what have traditionally been strong local organizations at the federal and provincial levels, they may not field candidates at all. This would leave the race to essentially the other two parties and the interesting question will be if Thunder Bay Liberal voters simply embrace the NDP candidates or if the higher profile Conservative candidates this time have more of a chance.
