Northern Economist 2.0

Tuesday, 7 April 2020

Tracking COVID-19 in Ontario and Thunder Bay District

The Covid-19 pandemic is now well underway in Ontario.  Between March 1st and March 31st, the total number of confirmed cases rose from 15 to 1,966. From the first death on March 17th, the number of deaths grew to 33 by March 31st. Since March 31st, total confirmed cases have grown to reach 4,726 (as of April 7th noon-time) and the total number of deaths have climbed further to reach 153.  What is quite interesting is plotting the numbers as the public health sites present case totals but plots to help assess trends are not readily in evidence. 

Figure 1 plots the total confirmed cases in Ontario announced to today and they reveal a very steep curve of ascent.  What is also interesting is looking at the change in cases per day which is plotted in Figure 2.  The number of new cases was the highest on April 2nd at 573 and since then have essentially bounced up and down in a band from 290 to 408.  If this latter trend is maintained and then starts to show decline, we may be indeed be at a turning point in the war against COVID-19 but it is still too early to tell.











 

What is also of interest is what the figures look like here in the Thunder Bay District.  It is early days yet in the Thunder Bay District with the first case being reported  March 27th.  However, as of April 6th, Figure 3 shows what the total cases and the new cases per day looks like.  There of course have yet to be any reported deaths in the Thunder Bay District



It is still what looks like a fairly leisurely ascent - somewhat similar to Ontario as a whole in early to mid-March but we are now in early April. The March breakers have been back for about two weeks and hundreds of our local snow birds have also been returning.  If we have taken the self-isolation an distancing protocols to heart, then hopefully this will not rise too steeply and also begin to flatten out.  We certainly have had plenty of notice and warning given what has happened around the world and in the rest of the country.  The next week will be crucial in both Ontario and Thunder Bay District.

Friday, 27 July 2018

Analyzing the Candidate Numbers: Thunder Bay Municipal Election 2018

The nominations are closed and what a difference an additional week makes.  When you add up all the candidates, as of 5pm today there are now a total of 101 individuals running for office in Thunder Bay’s fall municipal and school board elections – up from 78 in 2014 – and a total of 61 running for City Council – more than the 51 of 2014.  So, it would appear that despite changes to the municipal nomination process for the 2018 election – a shorter time period for filing to run as well as the requirement of 25 signatures of support – there are more than enough people who want to fill municipal office.

However, a closer examination of the numbers suggest that the interest is greater for the Mayor and the At-Large Councillors.  Compared to the 2014 election, the number of candidates for Mayor is up from 6 to 11 – a 83 percent increase while the number seeking at At-Large position grew from 19 to 26 – an increase of 37 percent.  However, those seeking a Ward Councillor position fell from 26 to 24 – an 8 percent drop.  On the bright side, numbers for both the Lakehead and Separate Boards were also up from 2014.