This election is only about whether the current governing party deserves a majority. It is not about who is the best steward of the economy, who has the best housing plan, who can manage the pandemic best or even issues like what should Canada’s foreign policy or trade policy be in the currently fractured world. It should be about all these things, but these things are only a veil for what is the real issue. Given a minority government that appeared to be working, was an election during a pandemic for the sake of trying to get a majority something the current governing party should be rewarded for?
That is a good question. The answer really depends on what happens after this election. If the Liberals get their majority – a prospect which currently appears problematic– then the federal business of government will continue pretty much as it has whether you like it or not. The rolling of the dice will have been rewarded with the anticipated prize and the universe will unfold as Liberal strategists desired.
If there is a Liberal minority, then all was for naught, and we are back to a minority government that requires the support of at least one of the other parties - but the mandate of the Liberal minority will be weaker. While they are still the government, they did not get their majority and the prospect for good relations with other parties after the rancor and rhetoric of an unnecessary election will shorten the life of the next parliament considerably. It is a recipe for more unstable government, but with some continuity in dealing with the resurgent fourth COVID wave given the Liberals will still be in charge at least for a short time.
Suppose there is a Conservative or for the sake of argument an NDP minority government. Then once again we have a prospect for unstable and short shelf-life government and probably a fair amount of chaos during the transition. As the fourth wave grows, we will be busy watching to see who the new cabinet will be and what the policies transpire and who is going to be supporting the government and who is not. Will the Liberals swallow their pride and support a conservative or NDP government? Or will they simply retreat into sniping mode and leave the heavy lifting to the Bloc? It is not a good prospect.
There is of course the possibility of a Conservative majority which solves the problem of the instability of a minority government. However, there is still the prospect of transition. Ministers will be learning their portfolios and there is always the risk that if you change horses mid-stream, Canadians will simply fall into the creek. In the end, one might argue it does not matter what happens. After all, Canada’s political parties are really all middle of the road or centrist parties and all of them in the end will do pretty much the same thing but with differences in speed and intensity. The NDP are simply Liberals in a hurry and the Conservatives are slower Liberals and Liberals are whatever they think Canadians want them to be.
Moreover, politicians are merely actors on a stage and the real decision making and business of state is done by the civil servants, and they are not going anywhere. Still, in the end, political leadership matters. Vision and inspiration matter. Prime Ministers matter because even if scripted some deliver their lines better than others while others interpret the role in unique and uplifting ways. Or at least they should.
I guess, the real question is should you reward the Liberals
for going to the polls during a pandemic and risking the aftermath of chaotic
instability of government and transition during a rising fourth pandemic wave? Should they be rewarded for opening such a
can of worms? The answer to that is invariably complicated and can best be
summarized as simultaneously both Yes and No. Think of it as an election variant of Schrodinger's cat.
