The Federal Election Results: Northern Ontario

The people have spoken, and Canada has a minority Liberal government.  In my home community of Thunder Bay, there will be double representation on the government side as both ridings went Liberal.  This however was not the result of strategic voting or a calculated decision by the local electorate to go with what they saw as the winning side but the outcome of ingrained behaviour.  Thunder Bay always votes Liberal at both federal and provincial levels except on occasion when it goes NDP because the voters feel the Liberals ought to be punished.  However, their NDP support is a temporary dalliance and they ultimately return to their original faith.   

If Monday’s election had yielded a Conservative minority or majority, then Thunder Bay would have been on the outs and of course complaining incessantly about the lack of government attention. Yet, loyalty to one party by a smaller and more remote community does not always ensure you will get what you want if your team is in power.  If your support is always assumed to be there, than that can also work against you when it comes to getting your issues on the table.

Electing a variety of representatives over the years based on calculation rather than political faith or loyalty is another approach to collective voter wisdom and diversity in outcomes over time is one way of ensuring your support is not taken for granted.  While Thunder Bay generally always votes the same way, nearby Kenora is much more flexible and over the years has voted in representatives at the provincial and local level affiliated with all three of the major parties.  This time, they switched from Liberal to Conservative at the federal level.   

While parts of northern Ontario seem to be closed shops when it comes to voting patterns, the region as a whole, has actually elected a diverse portfolio of representatives with the balance what one might term centre-right rather than centre-left - if you assume the Liberals are more centrist than the other two parties.  Given that the Liberals and NDP generally term themselves as “Progressive” the region as a whole is probably more centre-left.  One can only imagine what the “Progressives” would now term themselves if the federal Conservatives had not rebranded and retained their “Progressive Conservative” label.

In terms of results for the 10 ridings, they are:

Kenora: Conservative

Thunder Bay-Rainy River: Liberal

Thunder Bay-Superior North: Liberal

Timmin-James Bay: NDP

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing: NDP

Sault Ste. Marie: Liberal

Nickel Belt: Liberal

Sudbury: Liberal

Nipissing-Timiskaming: Liberal

Parry Sound-Muskoka: Conservative

 

On a map, electoral northern Ontario is a bit of an oreo sandwich made up of two conservative graham wafer borders -Kenora and Parry Sound-Muskoka - and a rather large dollop of Liberal cream accented with some additional NDP filling.  Obviously, northern Ontario voters as a whole like their electoral food spiced with diversity even if smaller regions within prefer more monotonous diets.  However, if one takes a pan-northern view, the north is greater than the sum of its local parts when it comes electoral wisdom and has made sure it has its bases covered.

On a final note, a special congratulations to Eric Melillo who pulled ahead of incumbent Bob Nault to win the Kenora riding.  Eric is a graduate of the Economics program at Lakehead University and I am thrilled to see him do well.  Eric was a hardworking and keen student in Economics and a very pleasant young man and I wish him all the best.

Which Federal Party Can Open the Door to Thunder Bay's Employment Growth?

With the federal election into its home stretch and the vote scheduled for tomorrow, voters in Thunder Bay have to decide who to vote for.  Needless to say, it has been a disappointing election given that the major parties – as well as the smaller ones – have presented grandiose expenditure visions that are for the most part fiscally unsustainable.  Moreover, much of the campaign has been not on policy but on opportunistic promises with major efforts expended on digging up dirt on opponents, mixing it with a little self-righteous water and then spattering it about in the hope that it sticks somewhere. 

When it comes  to making a ballot-box decision, the prevailing sentiment on the street seems to be that it is hard to choose from a set of equally unpalatable national parties.  So, the next best approach might be: let us look locally and make the decision, based not on what might be best for the country, but what might be best for Thunder Bay.  Here too, the answer is really quite muddy as ultimately what is best for Thunder Bay is making sure that at least one of the ridings is with whoever ends up as the governing party.  However, even that is a difficult game to play given that we are probably looking at a minority government situation.  And such strategic behaviour is made even more difficult by Thunder Bay's historical genetic aversion to any federal choice but Liberal - except when they seek to punish the Liberals by voting New Democrat.  Thunder Bay has not elected a federal conservative since the 1930s but then oddly wonders why conservative governments do not grant its wishes.

In terms of what is best for Thunder Bay, needless to say a government that promotes economic growth and diversification is always a safe bet but that can often only be judged years after the fact.  The current north side incumbent who is also a member of the present governing party certainly points to the last four years as a period of economic growth for Thunder Bay and northwestern Ontario in part due to the “millions of dollars coming into our area” which she no doubt ascribes to her government and her role as a Minister of the Crown.

Quantitatively assessing growth in Thunder Bay and the region is never easy but a glance at employment numbers is one way of providing an evidence-based attempt on how much growth there has been.  Between 2014 and 2018, total employment in Thunder Bay has indeed grown by 3.6 percent – from 61,500 to 63,700 jobs – which is actually not bad given that Ontario over the same period increased by 5.3 percent.  However, when employment is examined in a longer-term framework using the period from 2001 to 2018 – see Figure 1 – it is still within the traditional employment range of the last two decades.  We basically bounce up and down between 60,000 and 65,000 jobs and never seem to break out of that corridor in any sustained fashion.  Between 2001 and 2018, Thunder Bay’s employment grew 3.4 percent while Ontario grew 22 percent. 

 

What is also interesting as shown in Figure 2 is when employment growth by occupational category over the period 2014 to 2018 is examined. The most employment growth since 2014 has been in occupations related to arts and culture (26.7%), health (22.2%), natural and applied sciences (17.6%), manufacturing (13.3%) and law, social and government services (12%).  However, sales and services, business and finance, and construction have all seen declines.  As for the manufacturing resurgence, given the 550 jobs slated to disappear at Bombardier, manufacturing is poised to continue the decline that has been underway since 2001.

 

So, has Thunder Bay’s employment grown over the last four years?  Yes, but there are important qualifications given the dynamic nature and unique features of any local economy.   Here in Thunder Bay jobs are both created and destroyed but in almost perfect balance over time so as to keep total employment locked within a narrow corridor.  This corridor has remained the same for decades and Thunder Bay remains in an overall total employment stasis despite the efforts of two growth plans - one provincial and the most recent federal.   This is unlike Ontario as a whole where jobs are both created and destroyed but on net over the last 20 years many more jobs have been created than have been destroyed.  In choosing who to vote more tomorrow, voters need to think long and hard on which party they believe can actually open the door to getting us outside our historical corridor of employment stasis.

Demanding Better from Canada's Federal Politicians

Well, it is nearly one week into the Federal Election campaign and the start was less than auspicious for the Liberals given that a campaign bus damaged the official plane on day one.  I was surprised that no pundit noted that it seemed like the left wing of the plane carrying Canada’s self-styled champions of progressive thought was damaged.  But then, media observers were probably too entranced by the plethora of slogans and ads which had already started to crescendo a few days before the call.   Yet, the slogans were for the most part predictable and really rather bland.  The general blandness of indeed the entire election, is coming during a time when Canada’s position in the world is under severe stress and change. How a country with an export to GDP ratio of 30 percent can continue to prosper in a world of tariffs and trade wars is a pressing question.  One was expecting more.

The campaign slogans are remarkably interchangeable.  The federal Liberals are asking us to “Choose Forward” which I am sure means other parties are a backwards choice rather than an exhortation to engage in time travel or perhaps go to an advance poll.  The federal Conservatives are telling us that “It’s time for you to get ahead” which again is a call to vote Conservative as a way of doing materially better rather than proceed to the front of a checkout line or perhaps take early action in setting your clocks back for the fall. 

Keeping to the theme of moving forward and ahead, both the Liberals and Conservatives are facing the Green Party with their “Not Left. Not right. Forward Together” which suggests rival parties are directionally challenged when it comes to deciding where to go.  And of course, there are the New Democrats who want us to know that they are “In it for You” which is a comment on the other parties being focused on themselves rather than a call to attract more candidates of which they are still woefully short.  And who can forget the People’s Party of Canada who are simply “Strong and Free” but based on their polling numbers are not strong and probably do not wish to apply the concept of free to immigration.

These are of course only slogans designed to highlight differences and send subliminal messages.  The Liberals are suggesting that choosing anybody other than them is a step backwards especially when it comes to their much-vaunted promotion of growing the middle class.  I suppose this  is a more charitable interpretation of their message than a more strident “We always know what is best for you” or “We are going to help the middle class whether you like how we do it or not.” 

Meanwhile the Conservatives, seem to be telling us if you want to be middle class, the best way to get ahead is to support them which is probably a more prudent line than “We want to help you help yourself get more”.  As for the New Democrats, well they are middle class boosters too but want to explicitly let you know they are in it for you if you vote for them with the policy prescription being there is no problem that cannot be fixed with more government spending - even if not necessary or counterproductive.  Here, the more accurate reality might be a reverse Walmart ad like “Spend more, Get Less”.

In the end, these official slogans are all interchangeable and designed to sell a message that if stated more bluntly would probably not be seen as a good idea by the in-house advisors.  It would be a fun party game to see how many permutations and combinations can emerge by combining and rearranging these words.  How about, “Not left, Not right, but forward and backwards” or “Forward for a Strong and Free You” or “Time to choose forward to get ahead together while strong and free and realizing what’s in it for you.”   We are truly in a pickle this fall but unless we demand better from our politicians, we will not get anything better.  It can start with better slogans but a better policy debate would be even more useful.