Living With Mom and Dad in Ontario: North & South 2016 Census Results

Statistics Canada released its 2016 Families, Households andMarital Status Results for the 2016 Census on August 2^nd and the results show that proportionally fewer households are composed of a 'mom, dad and kids' family and more people are either living alone, or as part of a couple without children, or as part of a multi-generational family. However, the other interesting result was that the proportion of adults aged 20 to 34 living with parents was 34.7 percent and has been increasing since 2001 when it was 30.6 percent.  It is both a northern and southern Ontario phenomenon.

Why Northern Ontario Should Worry About an Aging Population

The release by Statistics Canada of  a second series of data from the 2016 Census on age and sex, and type of dwelling shows just how much Canada's population age distribution has changed.  In 1851, 45 percent of Canada population was aged 14 years or less while only 2.5% was 65 years and older. In 2016, only 16.6 percent of the population was aged 14 years or less while 16.9 percent was aged grater than 65 years.  As noted in the release, for the first time Canada's population of seniors outnumbered its children (5.9 million seniors versus 5.8 million aged 14 years or less).  It is truly a new age.

When the results are examined by CMA, it turns out that large urban centers are younger than the national average.  Canada  had 16.9 percent of their population aged 65 years and over and 16.6 percent aged 14 years or less.  In terms of seniors, the largest proportions were in Trois-Rivieres (22.3%), Peterborough (22.2%) and St. Catharines-Niagara (21.8%) while the lowest where in the west: Saskatoon (12.8%), Edmonton (12.3 percent) and Calgary (11%).  As for those aged 14 years and below, the largest proportions were again in the west: Lethbridge (19.1%), Saskatoon (18.9%) and Calgary (18.8%).  The smallest were in Trois-Rivieres (14.3%), Kelowna (14.2%) and Victoria (13.1%).

The two northern Ontario centers of Thunder Bay and Sudbury were generally on the older side with Sudbury coming out slightly younger.  Thunder Bay ranked 8th out of 35 CMAs in the proportion of seniors (19.8%) and 32nd out of 35 in the proportion aged 14 years or less (14.6%).  Sudbury was 12th in the proportion of seniors (18.3%) and 25th in the proportion of children (15.5%). Needless to say, an aging population has implications for future economic growth and these figures suggest that northern Ontario - as represented by Thunder Bay and Sudbury - faces a future of continued slower growth.

Housing Prices in Sudbury and Thunder Bay: The Boom is Over

A key feature of housing markets in Canada over the last decade is the sustained price increases particularly in larger urban centers such as Vancouver and Toronto.  Despite a relatively flat economy and stagnant population growth, even northern Ontario has seen a price surge in its two largest urban housing markets: Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay.  However, while Ontario’s housing price surge especially in the GTA shows little sign of abating, it appears that economic reality may have finally caught up with northern Ontario’s largest housing markets as prices appear set to level off.