Welcome to 2026! While everyone
is interested in what 2026 will bring economically, it is also important to
review what the recent trends have been. While 2025 has been an economically tumultuous
year for Canada, in the end the Canadian economy has performed more resiliently
than one might have expected. This is
also the case in northern Ontario’s two main urban centres of Thunder Bay and
Sudbury. The accompanying figures plot
monthly labour force data from Statistics Canada over the 2011 to 2025 period for
the two cities for four variables: total employment, the unemployment rate, the
labour force, and population aged over 15 years of age.
The most interesting development is when comparing pre
and post pandemic employment levels (Figure 1) which suggests that there has
been an upward trend in job creation in both cities since 2020. It turns out that 2025 continued this trend
with Thunder Bay going from about 66,200 to 69,100 jobs over the November 2024
to November 2025 period – an increase of 2,900 jobs or 4.4 percent. Over the
same period, Sudbury saw an increase in employment from 90,400 to 94,800 – an increase
of 4,400 jobs or 4.9 percent. While Sudbury
had relatively greater employment growth, interestingly enough, its unemployment
rate in 2025 was higher than Thunder Bay’s (Figure 2). By the end of 2025,
Thunder Bay’s unemployment rate was just under 5 percent while Sudbury’s was nearly
7 percent.
The reasons for this is that compared to Thunder Bay, Sudbury
had a faster rate of both labour force and population growth in 2025 (Figure 3
and 4) relative to jobs created. Sudbury’s working age population in 2025 grew
nearly 2 percent, while its labour force grew just over 6 percent. On the other hand, Thunder Bay's population growth in 2025 remain flat after several years of growth while its
labour force nevertheless rose 4.5 percent as participation rates increased.
Needless to say, both Thunder Bay and Sudbury did quite well
in 2025 when it comes to employment creation and this naturally bodes well for
the coming year. While northern Ontario’s
economy still faces challenges going into the new year as a result of the
continuing economic adjustment to a more tariff prone United States (Sault Ste.
Marie and its steel industry comes to mind), its resilience so far bodes well
for the future. It is important that the
region remains alert and on guard to take advantage of new opportunities as
they emerge.
