It is the start of the month and a good time to review how Ontario and Thunder Bay District are faring in terms of the trend in daily COVID-19 case counts. Ontario has now been in a lock down for about four weeks with Thunder Bay District in a lock for weeks before then. The current restrictions are set to last until May 20th but it is likely they will be extended given that while the upward surge has been arrested in Ontario, there is not yet a downward trend. As of today, Ontario is reporting a total of 473,901 COVID-19 cases and 8,118 deaths. Daily cases climbed above 3,000 about April 2nd and peaked at 4,812 on April 16th but they have stubbornly remained above 3,000 since. Figure 1 plots Ontario's daily cases with a LOWESS smooth and the best that can be said is that the cases have stalled with a distinct downward trend yet to emerge.
As for the Thunder Bay District, Figure 2 shows that since the peak that was reached circa the first week of March (about Day 408), there has been a dramatic decline but we have not gone down to zero. Rather, we seem to be leveling off at about 5 to 10 cases daily. Indeed, the average cases reported over the last two weeks is about 7. While this is a rather manageable problem for the time being compared to what things were like in early March, it remains that these embers are capable of still sparking a much larger conflagration. Indeed, given the much higher case numbers to the west of us in the Northwestern Health Unit as well as the prairies, the potential for the more rapid spread of new variants is still there.
One suspects a distinct downward trend for the province is still several weeks away and will only occur as the vaccination process gets to larger numbers of people. Complete eradication will likely not occur given the spread of new variants, the general non-compliance with general restriction measures by a surprisingly large share of the population and of course the refusal or reluctance of some to get vaccinated. In the United States, the widely circulating variants and vaccine hesitancy has led experts to conclude that herd immunity there is unlikely and that the virus will continue to circulate for some time to come. It is likely not going to be any different in Canada. The new normal will include precautions and some level of restrictions for some time to come - likely a few years.
