On February 8
th, Statistics Canada is expected to
release the Population and Dwelling Counts for the 2016 Census.
This is of interest everywhere but no
more so than in northern Ontario where the
2011 Census registered population
declines from 2006.
Indeed, the
long-term trend has been for a shrinking population in northern Ontario both in
absolute numbers and as share of Ontario’s population.
In 1976, northern Ontario (Algoma,
Cochrane, Kenora, Manitoulin, Muskoka, Nipissing, Parry Sound, Rainy River,
Sudbury [District & Regional Municipality], Thunder Bay & Temiskaming)
accounted for about 10 percent of Ontario’s population whereas by 2011 it was
down to 6 percent.
In 1976, northern Ontario’s population was estimated at 853,900 and according to the Spring 2016 population projections it is now under 800,000.
If one wants a look ahead at what the
demographic future may hold, one can take a look at the Ontario Ministry of
Finance
Spring 2016 Ontario population projections (which are based on the 2011
Census and no doubt will soon be updated).
From a population of 797,852 in 2015, northern Ontario’s population
is expected to decline and reach 779,971 by 2041.
Meanwhile, Ontario’s population as a whole will grow from
13.792 million to reach 17.949 million.
Northern Ontario’s share of the provincial population is projected to go
from 5.8 percent in 2015 to reach 4.3 percent in 2041.(See Figure 1).
What is interesting about the population projections is the
anticipated differences between the northwest and northeast sections of the
north.
As a result of a growing
First Nations population compensating somewhat for the decline of an aging
non-First Nations population, the northwest will actually see population continue
to grow slightly going from 239,087 in 2015 to reach 243,613 in 2031 before
decline sets in bringing the population to 242,149 by 2041.
Meanwhile, the northeast is expected to
see a more steady decline from 558,765 in 2015 to 537,822 by 2041.
(See Figure 2)
Of course, these projections cannot take into account any unforeseen demographic changes such as a sudden exogenous influx of new people. While the prospects given such in-migration may seem small for the north given the attractiveness of Ontario's GTA as a population magnet, it remains that nearby Manitoba has seen
new immigration from Asia and population increase. There is no reason why such a trend will not also hit northern Ontario. Indeed, the recent focus on international students in the region's universities may also prove a source of new population if these students are retained in the region after graduation.
Then there is the economy. In terms of economic impact, population growth is of course
only one aspect of the health of an economy.
Even if population stays stable or declines somewhat, if per
capita income rises then the total size of the economy is still growing.
There will also be the need to replace retiring workers even if the total size of the labor force stays approximately the dame.
As well, composition of the population
is another aspect.
While the north
is aging, by 2041 the northwest is still anticipated to have a slightly younger age distribution than
the northeast.
Figure 3 shows that
by 2041, the proportion of population aged 44 years or less will be 49 percent
in the northwest and 44 percent in the northeast. At present, the respective shares aged 44 years or less are 54 percent in the northwest and 49 percent in the northeast. Both regions are still getting older.
