With over 101 individuals seeking municipal office for October's municipal and school board elections this October, the question that now comes to mind is why are there so many candidates seeking office? More importantly, why has this number been growing over time? After all, in 2000 only 76 candidates sought office. While there have been some ebbs and flows in numbers since then - there was another surge in candidates in 2003 - it remains that particularly since 2006, the numbers seeking the Mayor's job as well as an At-Large Council position have grown steadily. Yet the overall population of the City is flat.
Northern Economist 2.0
Wednesday 1 August 2018
Friday 27 July 2018
Analyzing the Candidate Numbers: Thunder Bay Municipal Election 2018
The nominations
are closed and what a difference an additional week makes. When you add up all the candidates, as of 5pm
today there are now a total of 101 individuals running for office in Thunder
Bay’s fall municipal and school board elections – up from 78 in 2014 – and a
total of 61 running for City Council – more than the 51 of 2014. So, it would appear that despite changes to
the municipal nomination process for the 2018 election – a shorter time period
for filing to run as well as the requirement of 25 signatures of support –
there are more than enough people who want to fill municipal office.
However, a
closer examination of the numbers suggest that the interest is greater for the
Mayor and the At-Large Councillors.
Compared to the 2014 election, the number of candidates for Mayor is up
from 6 to 11 – a 83 percent increase while the number seeking at At-Large
position grew from 19 to 26 – an increase of 37 percent. However, those seeking a Ward Councillor
position fell from 26 to 24 – an 8 percent drop. On the bright side, numbers for both the
Lakehead and Separate Boards were also up from 2014.
Tuesday 24 July 2018
Homicies Data Update: Thunder Bay Still Ranked First
Statistics Canada has just released the latest crime data report with the 2017 edition of Police Reported Crime Statistics. Overall, crime is up a bit in Canada. While there has been some improvement in Thunder Bay's ranking when it comes to crime severity in general, what is of particular interest of course especially to us in Thunder Bay is the homicide rate. According to Statistics Canada:
I have done a number of posts on this topic over the years so its time to update some of the numbers. The two figures below plot the homicide rate (homicides per 100,000 of population) for Thunder Bay, Sudbury and Canada. The first figure is the raw annual homicide rate while the second figure plots a smoothed series which gives you a better picture of the longer term trends. Annual numbers tend to have a lot of variation and you really should not base analysis or policy on one or two years of data. However, based on the smoothed series (LOWESS Smooth using a 0.8 bandwidth) you can see the picture that emerges here over the longer term.
While the homicide rate in Thunder Bay for 2017 is down from the previous year at 5.8 versus 6.6 homicides per 100,000, the long term trend in one of increase. The annual un-smoothed data suggests the upward trend began circa 2008-09 while the smoothed series suggests that it has been a 21st century phenomenon with the rise starting approximately around 2000. Thunder Bay's homicide rate has diverged from the national trend which has been one of decline.
This is certainly one issue for the Fall 2018 municipal election.
"After little change in 2016, the national
homicide rate increased 7% in 2017, moving from 1.69 homicides per 100,000
population to 1.80. Police reported 660 homicides, 48 more than in 2016. The
2017 homicide rate was higher than the average for the previous decade (1.67
per 100,000 population for 2007 to 2016).
The increase in the national number of
homicides was largely a result of the greater number of homicides in British
Columbia (+30) and Quebec (+26).
With a total of seven homicides in 2017,
Thunder Bay recorded the highest homicide rate among the CMAs for the second
year in a row (5.80 homicides per 100,000 population). Abbotsford–Mission (with
9 homicides) and Edmonton (with 49 homicides) had the next highest homicide
rates (4.72 and 3.49 per 100,000 population, respectively). Saguenay was the
only CMA to report no homicides in 2017.
The attempted murder rate in Canada
increased 4% from 2016 to 2017, to 2.25 per 100,000 population. A 25% increase
in the province of Quebec was the main contributor to the overall national
increase. This was due to the January 2017 shooting at the Islamic Cultural
Centre of Québec. This incident resulted in six homicide victims and 40 victims
of attempted murder."
I have done a number of posts on this topic over the years so its time to update some of the numbers. The two figures below plot the homicide rate (homicides per 100,000 of population) for Thunder Bay, Sudbury and Canada. The first figure is the raw annual homicide rate while the second figure plots a smoothed series which gives you a better picture of the longer term trends. Annual numbers tend to have a lot of variation and you really should not base analysis or policy on one or two years of data. However, based on the smoothed series (LOWESS Smooth using a 0.8 bandwidth) you can see the picture that emerges here over the longer term.
While the homicide rate in Thunder Bay for 2017 is down from the previous year at 5.8 versus 6.6 homicides per 100,000, the long term trend in one of increase. The annual un-smoothed data suggests the upward trend began circa 2008-09 while the smoothed series suggests that it has been a 21st century phenomenon with the rise starting approximately around 2000. Thunder Bay's homicide rate has diverged from the national trend which has been one of decline.
This is certainly one issue for the Fall 2018 municipal election.
Sunday 22 July 2018
Thunder Bay City Council Races Growing
Well, what a difference a couple of weeks makes. It would appear that the fall municipal election has finally caught the attention of the local community and the number of candidates is up considerably from my post two weeks ago. In my July 7th post, I noted that with only a few weeks to go before the July 27th deadline, the number of candidates who had filed for election in Thunder Bay's city council race was down dramatically. However, since then it would appear that a larger number of candidates have come forward.
In the 2014 election, the total number of candidates (including all the school boards) was 78 of whom 51 were running for spots on Thunder Bay City Council. As of today, there are a total of 67 candidates registered of whom 40 are seeking a spot on City Council. While the numbers are still down, the gap is not as great as several weeks ago. The remaining week will likely see other candidates come forward. For those of you who might think yours truly will be inspired to run I can assure you it is an honor I do not currently aspire to. (I thought the italics would be an amusing touch). However, I am certainly glad others are taking the initiative first because the role is important and second because the perambulations of Thunder Bay City Council are often a source of inspiration for my blogging.
In the 2014 election, the total number of candidates (including all the school boards) was 78 of whom 51 were running for spots on Thunder Bay City Council. As of today, there are a total of 67 candidates registered of whom 40 are seeking a spot on City Council. While the numbers are still down, the gap is not as great as several weeks ago. The remaining week will likely see other candidates come forward. For those of you who might think yours truly will be inspired to run I can assure you it is an honor I do not currently aspire to. (I thought the italics would be an amusing touch). However, I am certainly glad others are taking the initiative first because the role is important and second because the perambulations of Thunder Bay City Council are often a source of inspiration for my blogging.
Friday 20 July 2018
Is the Russia-America Global CoDominium About to Begin?
Well, I had so much fun writing this and posting it on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative that I decided it was worth posting here too!
In the wake of the Putin-Trump Helsinki summit, there is much speculation about what was actually said between Putin and Trump behind closed doors and the uncertainty spread throughout the American government about whether agreements had been reached on issues such as Syria and the Ukraine. The subsequent invitation to Putin to visit the White house in the fall – probably just before the November elections – has resulted in further uncertainty especially after Putin’s statement that he proposed to Trump holding a referendum to resolve the eastern Ukraine issue. So, what is really going on here?
Quite frankly, we have all have been scratching our heads as the behaviour in some respects is reminiscent of 18th and 19th century monarchs gathering to decide the fate of wide swaths of the world in private meetings. Putin is an autocrat and Trump is a business autocrat who admires political autocrats, so their personal level diplomacy may indeed be a series of moves designed to remake the world and return it to an age when Russian and American led blocs were the only game in town. Both the Russians and the Americans have seen their political influence decline in a multilateral world led by growing Asia-Pacific economies and both countries have been less than comfortable with the rise of China.
One has to wonder if this is an attempt by Trump to forge some type of private alliance with the Russians in an effort to coordinate their interests and deal with their ebbing international influence? The idea sounds like science fiction. Indeed, the idea of these two countries getting together and establishing a CoDominium actually has substance in an alternate reality – the science fiction world of Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle. In their novel The Mote in God’s Eye, which was originally published in 1974, a series of treaties between the Russians and the Americans establishing the CoDominium in the 1990s sets the stage for a global government and the expansion of the human species out into the galaxy. This of course would place Trump’s musings about setting up a Space Force into quite an entirely different light. Indeed, is Donald Trump drawing inspiration from a mythical civilization disrupting character known as a Crazy Eddie?
Trump may be trying to engineer some broader type of Russian-American political alliance to counter their waning influence in the world driven by a nostalgia for the 1960s and 1970s. After all, the rise of the Chinese economy and the growth of Chinese military influence is seen as a potential concern in some circles. It does not matter how far-fetched the idea may seem given everything else that has been happening lately whenever Donald Trump takes the world stage. Disrupting the world, wrecking the liberal economic order and creating chaos and then having America and Russia step in to fix things may seem crazy but does it make sense to foreign policy experts? And, while Trump may be thinking along these lines what is Putin really thinking? I doubt he is a Niven and Pournelle fan.
Of course, one expects that greater formal cooperation between the Americans and the Russians will ultimately require Congress to sign-off especially if actual treaties are eventually negotiated. On the other hand, if it is all kept informal and behind closed doors, who knows what is eventually going to emerge?
In the wake of the Putin-Trump Helsinki summit, there is much speculation about what was actually said between Putin and Trump behind closed doors and the uncertainty spread throughout the American government about whether agreements had been reached on issues such as Syria and the Ukraine. The subsequent invitation to Putin to visit the White house in the fall – probably just before the November elections – has resulted in further uncertainty especially after Putin’s statement that he proposed to Trump holding a referendum to resolve the eastern Ukraine issue. So, what is really going on here?
Quite frankly, we have all have been scratching our heads as the behaviour in some respects is reminiscent of 18th and 19th century monarchs gathering to decide the fate of wide swaths of the world in private meetings. Putin is an autocrat and Trump is a business autocrat who admires political autocrats, so their personal level diplomacy may indeed be a series of moves designed to remake the world and return it to an age when Russian and American led blocs were the only game in town. Both the Russians and the Americans have seen their political influence decline in a multilateral world led by growing Asia-Pacific economies and both countries have been less than comfortable with the rise of China.
One has to wonder if this is an attempt by Trump to forge some type of private alliance with the Russians in an effort to coordinate their interests and deal with their ebbing international influence? The idea sounds like science fiction. Indeed, the idea of these two countries getting together and establishing a CoDominium actually has substance in an alternate reality – the science fiction world of Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle. In their novel The Mote in God’s Eye, which was originally published in 1974, a series of treaties between the Russians and the Americans establishing the CoDominium in the 1990s sets the stage for a global government and the expansion of the human species out into the galaxy. This of course would place Trump’s musings about setting up a Space Force into quite an entirely different light. Indeed, is Donald Trump drawing inspiration from a mythical civilization disrupting character known as a Crazy Eddie?
Trump may be trying to engineer some broader type of Russian-American political alliance to counter their waning influence in the world driven by a nostalgia for the 1960s and 1970s. After all, the rise of the Chinese economy and the growth of Chinese military influence is seen as a potential concern in some circles. It does not matter how far-fetched the idea may seem given everything else that has been happening lately whenever Donald Trump takes the world stage. Disrupting the world, wrecking the liberal economic order and creating chaos and then having America and Russia step in to fix things may seem crazy but does it make sense to foreign policy experts? And, while Trump may be thinking along these lines what is Putin really thinking? I doubt he is a Niven and Pournelle fan.
Of course, one expects that greater formal cooperation between the Americans and the Russians will ultimately require Congress to sign-off especially if actual treaties are eventually negotiated. On the other hand, if it is all kept informal and behind closed doors, who knows what is eventually going to emerge?
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