The people of Ontario have spoken – at least 40 percent of eligible voters anyway – and Doug Ford and the Conservatives have been awarded a second and more substantial majority. As of this morning, the Ontario PCs hold 83 of Ontario’s 124 seats compared to 31 for the NDP, 8 for the Liberals and 1 for the Greens. The PCs garnered 41 percent of the popular vote, and the NDP and the Liberals 24 percent each while the Greens came in at about 6 percent. Despite some initial clumsy handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, It turns out that Ontarians have decided they approve of Premier Ford and have generally put the pandemic behind them despite its lingering issues. Moreover, given the alternatives to the status quo, a lot of Ontarians seem to have decided not to vote.
The Ontario PCs have essentially made gains in the GTA, the Southwest and Northern Ontario. The NDP union vote has essentially gone to the Conservatives while the Liberal vote along with being poorly distributed also seems to have either stayed home or gone to the Conservatives – especially in the GTA. In the end, the message of the Ford Conservatives to rebuild the economy with mining and electric vehicle investment, a move towards worker friendly policies such as raising the minimum wage, ambitious infrastructure projects including highway projects throughout the province and some inflation fighting measures such as reducing the gas tax all struck a chord. The NDP focused on health while the Liberals seemed to have no focus at all. In terms of its spending plans and pragmatic centrism, the PCs essentially have captured a lot of previous Liberal voters. Indeed, the Ford government has spent more than the McGuinty/Wynne Liberals ever did.
Looking ahead, a lot can happen to the economy over the next year or two in terms of a recession and rising interest rates that can derail the most ambitious of plans but for the time being, it is a win. The size of the majority and the lack of an effective opposition with the resignation of the two opposition leaders gives the Ontario PCs pretty much carte blanche for the next year or so. In many ways, this may be the recreation of the Ontario Big Blue Machine of the 1970s and the start of another long-term period of Conservative rule. However, it is not the 1970s, Doug Ford is not Bill Davis, and the problem is that large majorities and the lack of an immediate effective opposition can generate complacency, carelessness and ultimately the seeds of a government’s downfall - in that order. One assumes the Premier will have to keep a tight rein on a rather large caucus.
Things have certainly taken an interesting turn in the two Thunder Bay riding. The long-standing Conservative drought at the provincial level has finally been ended. Thunder Bay-Atikokan – which under its previous incarnation of Fort William – was last held by Conservative Mickey Hennessy in the 1980s – has elected Conservative Kevin Holland. It was a relatively tight race with Holland taking 36 percent of the vote, NDP incumbent Judith Monteith-Farrell 33 percent and Liberal Rob Barret 24 percent. A tight race bodes well for the future in terms of attention from all three parties during the next election campaign. As well, Mr. Holland provides a voice at the government table though with 83 MPPs it will be a rather crowded proposition and he will have to compete with Greg Rickford in Kenora.
The north side riding of Thunder Bay-Superior North saw the end of a quarter century of Liberal wins at the provincial level as Michael Gravelle’s riding went to NDP Lise Vaugeois who took 34 percent of the vote. Relatively close behind – for a Conservative in Thunder Bay-Superior North – was Peng You at 31 percent followed by Liberal Shelby Ch’ng at 28 percent. The tightness of this race also ensures that the next provincial election will see considerable attention paid to the riding by all three parties. In the end, it is important for sa maller and more remote riding to do all in their power to not be taken for granted.
The final point is the rather low turnout of the election and the fact that 40 percent of 40 percent turnout means that in the end barely 20 percent of eligible Ontarians have elected a majority government. Of those that voted, more voted against Doug Ford than for him. Still it is a majority under our current first-past-the-post system and those who did not vote and are unhappy really have only themselves to blame. At the same time, the fact that Premier Ford’s hefty majority and crushing of the opposition was achieved with about 20 percent of eligible Ontario voters should be a sobering check on any tendencies towards an imperial premiership.
