Is Ontario Really Flattening the Curve?

 Well, Ontario's Premier has apparently stated that Ontario is flattening the curve but one wonders where this interpretation of the data is coming from.  As the accompanying figure illustrates, the trend smoothing line is on a definite upward trajectory even if the cases over the last few days have hovered in the 500 to 600 range.  It remains that we are in the midst of a second wave of infections given that hospitalizations have also been trending up since mid September.  So, this does seem to be a pretty upbeat assessment that appears to be at odds with the evidence to date.

Most of the more recent cases appear to be affecting those under age 40 and this explains why deaths and hospitalizations have not soared as previously but again it remains that infection rates are especially high in low income neighborhoods.  As well, quite a number of long-term care homes in Ontario are also seeing infections but then that is not a big surprise given the odd protocol that keeps residents safe by requiring family members to gown and mask up after a negative Covid test to enter the home but then allows family members to take residents out for the day and literally go gallivanting around town if they wish without a Covid test.  One wonders who in Ontario's health ministry dreamed that one up.  But then, consistency has never been a hallmark of Covid regulations issued by the government.

 

 

To be fair, the rising infection rate is ultimately not really the government's fault but the public's.  Infections are up and so the government response is to appear to be taking action so they tighten the rules and restrictions.  However, the only people that seem to follow the new rules were those following them already while those who were disregarding them continue to do so.  We live in a society that is not really used to rules and restrictions of any kind.  We are relying on common sense and a sense of responsibility to reduce the infection rate but the fact is many people feel that the rules apply to someone else - which is ultimately behavior that can be traced back to our political leaders who say we should do one thing but then privately make exceptions for themselves. And then of course, there are the people who think they are following the rules even when they are not and have convinced themselves that they are and say one thing while doing another.  It would appear that we are all politicians at heart.