The link between the economy and the number of births is an
important one in both demographic and economic analysis.
One view maintains that a poor economy
breeds uncertainty about the future and in turn results in families postponing
children and therefore a reduction in both the number of total births as well
as the birth rate.
Another view
maintains that a poor economy reduces the opportunity cost of having children –
that is, if you do not have a job, why not use the time to start a family – and
the result would be a higher birth rate.
A lot of recent evidence from the current recession suggests that a poor
economy results in fewer births. For example, the
Economist Magazine recently
chronicled a recent drop in fertility rates amongst European countries hit hard
by the recession.
Figure 1
In Ontario, a comparison of Ontario with its North – the
chronic poor economic performer – also suggests that a more buoyant economy results
in more births (Figure 1). Using birth data from Statistics Canada, it appears that after a
period of decline in the 1990s, total births in Ontario have been rising since
2000. Between 2000 and 2010, total
births in Ontario rose by 13 percent.
Meanwhile, between 2000 and 2010, the total number of births in
Northwestern Ontario declined by 9 percent while the number in the relatively
more prosperous Northeast (which had robust mining activity and a less severe
forest sector downturn) actually grew by about one-half of one percent.
Figure 2
If one looks at total births in Northern Ontario by region
(Figure 2), many regions have stayed relatively flat in terms of the total
number of births, some have declined and one in particular – Greater Sudbury
and Nipissing – have seen increases over the last decade.
Indeed, much of the growth in the number
of births that has occurred in the Northeast has been over the last five years
reversing the declines of the late 1990s.
Between 2005 and 2010 (Figure 3), with the exception of Manitoulin, all
the regions of Northeastern Ontario have posted increases in the number of
births with the largest percent age increases being in Nipissing and Greater
Sudbury.
Meanwhile, the Northwest
has seen declines in the number of births in Rainy River and Thunder Bay and an
increase only in the Kenora District.
Figure 3
Based on the total number of births as an indicator of
economic opportunity and optimism, it would appear that over the period 2005 to
2010, the economy performed reasonably well in much of Northeastern Ontario
relative to the Northwest. In the
Northeast, the Timiskaming and Manitoulin regions seem the most depressed while
in the Northwest, Rainy River is in particularly poor shape especially relative
to the Kenora region. Nevertheless,
the economy of the Northwest has begun to move beyond the forest sector
downturn. Given the improvements
in the economy as a result of growing mining activity in the Northwest that
have been occurring over the last two years, one thing we can expect in the
future in Northwestern Ontario is an uptick in the number of births. Who knows, maybe in Thunder Bay they may actually find they need more schools after the slew they closed over the last decade.
